INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

[CHRISTY]

Omg, People please...this thing does not even have a LLC..we all know how much the track changes even when there is a LLC relocating. Trying to say this will go south of here or stay west of here is ridiculous, when will we ever learn

actually ive heard derek mention the ridge is forcast to build and it will probably be forced into central america.

what will? This thing reaches from south america all the way to the Northern windward islands, a LLC(if one were to form) could form anywhere along that axis, making track impossible to judge right now.

One thing that Florida residents may want to be aware of... There are two troughs currently forecast to dip low into the extreme northern central GOM later this week. These are blocking fronts and deflect a system coming from the east or SE. There is also an amplified high forecast to extend over Florida during this same period.




here's a close up of the models...


925 mb vorticy

[msbee]

Omg, People please...this thing does not even have a LLC..we all know how much the track changes even when there is a LLC relocating. Trying to say this will go south of here or stay west of here is ridiculous, when will we ever learn

Thank you for saying that!
I am so sick of people making more out of these things than they actually are.
and thanks to Derek Ott for his never failing wisdom and common sense and knowledge...
it's a wave, folks, just a wave.
we're getting some rain from it right now as a matter of fact.

[Ivanhater]

what? you keep posting useless models. Think about it, what are the models going off of, THERE IS NO LLC, may never be one, who knows what other factors may be ahead, troughs slow and speed up, no way to tell at this point where a trough will set up during that time frame. High pressure is the same way, they build and break down with time. No one can say how everything will set up way on down the road, especially with NO LLC!

[wxman57]

Take a look at the low clouds over the islands at 14 north...Maybe a MLC but theres something. Also the shear is shearing all the convection off to the east of the wave axis. Also Derek over the Atlatnic it may not of been closed but it was a low level low pressure system. A v-max you say looks a heck of alot like a LLC at that time.

I certainly don't see any evidence of a circulation center - surface or aloft - near 14N. I thought I saw a small eddy down near 11N just NE of Tobago earlier. It's easy to be fooled by clouds moving in different directions at different levels of the atmosphere. This appears to be nothing more than a vigorous tropical wave.

[Ivanhater]

Omg, People please...this thing does not even have a LLC..we all know how much the track changes even when there is a LLC relocating. Trying to say this will go south of here or stay west of here is ridiculous, when will we ever learn

Thank you for saying that!
I am so sick of people making more out of these things than they actually are.
and thanks to Derek Ott for his never failing wisdom and common sense and knowledge...
it's a wave, folks, just a wave.
we're getting some rain from it right now as a matter of fact.

Thanks, just trying to remind some people

[CHRISTY]

what? you keep posting useless models. Think about it, what are the models going off of, THERE IS NO LLC, may never be one, who knows what other factors may be ahead, troughs slow and speed up, no way to tell at this point where a trough will set up during that time frame. High pressure is the same way, they build and break down with time. No one can say how everything will set up way on down the road, especially with NO LLC!

u dont have to be rude!iam just expressing my thoughts jesus...Actually i agree with u on ur thoughts so sorry if my model pic bothered u.

[Ivanhater]

what? you keep posting useless models. Think about it, what are the models going off of, THERE IS NO LLC, may never be one, who knows what other factors may be ahead, troughs slow and speed up, no way to tell at this point where a trough will set up during that time frame. High pressure is the same way, they build and break down with time. No one can say how everything will set up way on down the road, especially with NO LLC!

u dont have to be rude!iam just expressing my thoughts jesus...Actually i agree with u on ur thoughts so sorry if my model pic bothered u.

Not being rude Christy, just getting my point across. Nothing wrong with your post, I am just pointing out a track is useless at this point in time.

[Dean4Storms]

Yes, I don't see the LL swirl that was present yesterday and it never went any further than that. Currently the shear is enhancing the convection and at the same time is helping to keep any organization down for the time being.

Also, the northern extent of this wave could reach south Florida if it continues as it is without any significant development and bring them some rain.