TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Derek Ortt]

it slowed because it is passing south of the weakness in the ridge to its north

[Praxus]

Not very impressed with it this morning. Guess we'll see if it can pull itself together over the next couple of days.

[Sanibel]

I think the airmass bending down in front of it is clear on Central Atlantic visible. I wish I had the computer savvy to highlight it on the screen.


If this were a pure reaction to ridge weakness, the disturbance would jump more NW. This slowdown without any apparent jump NW is more conforming to the situation I described (a blocking synoptic).

[Derek Ortt]

to be honest, I have never heard of your description hindering intensification, Sanibel, not from any of my collegues, ever

Center may be relocating closer to 12N, still moving primarily to the west. I cannot see anything closer to the 10N position

[gatorcane]

to be honest, I have never heard of your description hindering intensification, Sanibel, not from any of my collegues, ever

Center may be relocating closer to 12N, still moving primarily to the west. I cannot see anything closer to the 10N position

If the center forms around 12N what implications are there to the track?

[DrewFL]

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 11 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-110

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NOAA MAY FLY RESEARCH MISSIONS
ON THE WAVE EAST OF THE ISLANDS BEGINING 14/0000Z.

[AtlanticWind]

I think we can pretty safely say this system will take a more northerly track than Dean or Felix looking at the models , I would not expect this to enter the carribean except maybe the extreme northern carribean.

[Vortex]

still think it turns into the weakness and bends back west around 18/50 before turning NW and N. May be a threat to Bermuda but primarily a shipping threat...

[hurricanetrack]

Yep- there is just not enough ridge to the north for the next week or more to keep this moving west to get it past 70 degrees longitude. This is just my opinion based on looking at the 500mb pattern on most of the global models.

[Blown Away]

If 91L follows the models, it's almost 100% fish for the Islands & CONUS, Bermuda would have to watch. This N turn seems drastic and I'm not seeing it on the satellite. I wish the NHC would make this a TD so we could see where they think it will go.

['CaneFreak]

I just got a hold of the center. I see a band of rotating clouds going inward from the center. I have the center at roughly 12.9 N 41.8 W. If this is where the center is located, then I would say this thing has a fairly decent chance to develop in the next 12-24 hours. I see banding, inflow, outflow and all the things we tend to look at when looking for development. I have plotted the center movement and have it moving roughly 275 degrees and about 12.5 knots.

oh...and here's the link...sorry...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

Visible loop



A Question to any pro met.What effects if any may have a weak low NE of 91L to the track?

[Vortex]

Many times with weak systems and a weakness to the north the LLC will continue reforming North...Having said that Ill go with 14.5 Wed morning..

[skysummit]

How can some say 100% fish just because models are pointing northwest right now? That's ridiculous. Have you heard of "beyond 5 days???"

[CrazyC83]

With Gabrielle gone, all eyes turn to this blob.

[canegrl04]

I think this will be a threat anywhere from the Eastern Gulf to East coast.IF it developes

['CaneFreak]

With Gabrielle gone, all eyes turn to this blob.

I think this is more than a blob....look at the RGB Loop....you can see banding and wrapping around of the convection all the way around the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[Vortex]

My reasoning is based on Global model continuity..I've not declared this to be "a no threat" YET but the model output favors this outcome..

['CaneFreak]

How can you say it is based on model continuity? This is the first run where the models have shifted further to the north and east.

[Vortex]

Let me clarify GLOBALS and the weakness...They've been consistent for the last 3-5 days