ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

OK. Sorry pal. I thought you were referring to the 00Z run of the global numerical models. No problem. It's been a long day.

Sheesh, for a while there I thought I might have been accidentally posting on the knitting forum or something.

Convection really picking up now. That should help to take those stronger winds aloft down to the surface tomorrow. I think we may see a 120-125 kt hurricane by this time tomorrow. Just a hunch, mostly.

[Dave]

[cpdaman]

OK. Sorry pal. I thought you were referring to the 00Z run of the global numerical models. No problem. It's been a long day.

Sheesh, for a while there I thought I might have been accidentally posting on the knitting forum or something.

Convection really picking up now. That should help to take those stronger winds aloft down to the surface tomorrow. I think we may see a 120-125 kt hurricane by this time tomorrow. Just a hunch, mostly.

yes and i don't think anyone will Really be suprised.

the nhc admits they can't pin point intensity forecasts and everyone on here probably knows this ...it's darn near impossible

[summersquall]

How close is that closest pass to Jupiter, Fl, supposed to be?

http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm

I entered WPB but you can input your exact coordinates.

Results for 26.7N, 80.1W (West Palm Beach):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 27.4N, 77.0W or about 198.6 miles (319.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 47.2 hours (Thursday, August 25 at 10:12PM

[hurricaneCW]

New NHC track out - clips the Outer Banks, skirts the coast of NJ and slams into Long Island as a 75kt hurricane. Certainly possible. Could even be a bit stronger up there.

How much would Irene have an effect on my area, near the Jersey shore, and how likely is the current track to verify as of now, I know we've seen Florida in the 5 day cone only for the track to significantly change to where it is now.

[bigdan35]

Irene looks like she is going intensify pretty fast to me.









http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

[HurrMark]

New NHC track out - clips the Outer Banks, skirts the coast of NJ and slams into Long Island as a 75kt hurricane. Certainly possible. Could even be a bit stronger up there.

Jones Beach...right where the Meadowbrook meets the Ocean Parkway...

[Brent]

....wow.

*saves image*

Mark Sudduth: This is a forecast map that you are not likely to see again for a long, long time:... http://t.co/B6uQsY6" ( 106200185012633601@hurricanetrack - 3m, 30s ago via Facebook )

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240310
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 34 20110824
030000 2008N 07323W 6962 03130 0021 +091 +076 322030 032 /// /// 03
030030 2009N 07322W 6973 03116 0018 +090 +077 326031 031 022 000 03
030100 2010N 07320W 6963 03122 0021 +085 +076 328031 032 023 000 00
030130 2011N 07319W 6967 03123 0022 +084 +077 330031 032 022 000 00
030200 2012N 07318W 6966 03118 0021 +084 +079 330032 033 022 000 00
030230 2013N 07316W 6969 03114 0015 +087 +077 328032 032 021 000 00
030300 2014N 07315W 6965 03118 0014 +087 +074 325033 033 023 000 00
030330 2015N 07313W 6967 03114 0013 +088 +076 325032 033 023 000 00
030400 2016N 07312W 6964 03118 0012 +088 +076 324034 035 023 000 00
030430 2018N 07311W 6968 03108 0010 +088 +079 324033 034 022 000 00
030500 2019N 07309W 6967 03108 0007 +086 +077 324036 036 024 000 03
030530 2020N 07308W 6970 03105 0005 +088 +077 321038 039 025 000 00
030600 2021N 07307W 6964 03109 9999 +091 +074 318039 039 026 000 00
030630 2022N 07305W 6970 03102 9996 +092 +074 318040 040 027 001 00
030700 2023N 07304W 6963 03105 0000 +086 +076 318041 042 030 000 00
030730 2024N 07303W 6970 03099 9997 +088 +073 318042 043 030 001 00
030800 2026N 07301W 6963 03104 9995 +085 +073 314041 042 029 002 00
030830 2027N 07300W 6971 03089 9994 +088 +073 316043 044 032 001 00
030900 2028N 07258W 6966 03095 9990 +086 +068 319041 042 032 000 00
030930 2029N 07257W 6967 03091 9989 +085 +068 320041 042 032 000 00
$$
;

[cpdaman]

Looks like it's about to really explode, to me.

respectfully i don't think she's ready yet

lets get her 100 miles NW from here so she gets a nice southerly inflow ...that is'nt comin off 8000 foot mountains

i realize she isn't on hispanola ..but irene is a big girl and needs her space to go to town IMO

[ozonepete]

OK. Sorry pal. I thought you were referring to the 00Z run of the global numerical models. No problem. It's been a long day.

Sheesh, for a while there I thought I might have been accidentally posting on the knitting forum or something.

Convection really picking up now. That should help to take those stronger winds aloft down to the surface tomorrow. I think we may see a 120-125 kt hurricane by this time tomorrow. Just a hunch, mostly.

Very funny. to you too. BTW, that latest track is pretty bad for NYC - way too close for comfort. You know of course what I'm doing: watching the models swing back and forth from west to east until they settle in on one basic track for more than a day. And I was taught (all of us I guess) that any forecast longer than 3 days is just not reliable enough. So I've been telling all of my friends up here that we have to wait for the Thursday runs to have a solid enough idea of where it's going at this latitude. Remember we are used to these always recurving out to Montauk. I won't commit before that, even tho' TWC will, LOL. Having said that, the models are being pretty consistent now. Would you agree it's time for us to take it seriously now?

[MGC]

Just got off the phone with my son in the Norfolk Va area. We discussed the 10pm 5 day track which has Irene as a major hurricane moving back to sea near the VA/NC border. Told him to get the grandkids out of town. He was down here shortly after Katrina and knows what a major hurricane can do.

Irene continues to look more impressive....MGC

[Dave]

[crimi481]

Incredible outflow from Irene.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-bd.html

All signs do seem to point to intensification. Been a strange acting system ( like all lately)
Womder if she is controlling own path now - deepening the ridging around left quadrants? (n and s)

[eastcoastFL]

what time is 0600z

[RL3AO]

what time is 0600z

2am eastern

[pricetag56]

I suppose that blob of convection that has blown up to the east is going to over-run the main part of the storm. Will it make it stronger? weaken it? Shove it farther west? Guess i'm just wondering whats going to happen when they join forces.

that blob of convection is trying to wrap itself into a ring around the eyewall so its trying to get stronger.

[eastcoastFL]

what time is 0600z

2am eastern

Thank you. Looks like she will be right on point for the 0600z forecast point. maybe even ahead of schedule but right on the dot!

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240320
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 35 20110824
031000 2030N 07256W 6965 03089 9988 +085 +081 317040 041 034 002 00
031030 2031N 07254W 6955 03101 9987 +071 //// 314041 045 033 005 01
031100 2032N 07253W 6957 03095 //// +073 //// 314044 046 034 011 31
031130 2034N 07251W 6970 03076 9977 +084 //// 308043 044 034 009 01
031200 2035N 07250W 6969 03078 9983 +076 //// 311046 048 035 005 01
031230 2036N 07249W 6967 03076 9971 +083 //// 314049 050 037 003 01
031300 2037N 07247W 6963 03074 9963 +086 //// 311049 050 036 004 01
031330 2038N 07246W 6971 03062 9957 +087 //// 309048 049 037 005 01
031400 2039N 07244W 6970 03060 //// +074 //// 308050 052 038 006 01
031430 2041N 07243W 6969 03056 9947 +089 //// 312052 053 038 003 01
031500 2042N 07242W 6966 03057 9941 +092 +091 309054 054 041 002 00
031530 2043N 07240W 6967 03049 9930 +095 +086 306054 055 043 000 00
031600 2044N 07239W 6967 03041 9921 +097 +086 304053 053 043 002 00
031630 2045N 07237W 6962 03041 9906 +103 +086 300054 057 046 003 00
031700 2047N 07236W 6952 03043 9893 +107 +083 294059 061 047 003 03
031730 2048N 07234W 6963 03024 9876 +111 +084 290061 064 052 004 00
031800 2049N 07233W 6961 03014 9846 +125 +083 293067 068 056 003 00
031830 2051N 07232W 6967 02991 9826 +124 +099 294073 077 059 006 00
031900 2052N 07231W 6962 02976 9809 +113 //// 298077 078 061 017 01
031930 2054N 07230W 6979 02943 9787 +112 //// 298076 077 068 007 05
$$
;

78 kt FL, 68 kt SFMR so far.

[maryellen40]

I wonder where Cantore will broadcast from-NC or NYC?