Pacific Northwest Weather

[Guest]

Here is Saturday afternoon...




Now... Sunday gets even warmer. But this website only goes out through 60 hours and I wanted to show you in full color unlike the NCEP website.

This is from the 12Z run of the NAM... the 18Z run is warmer.

Man you harped alot about sunday being warm... Snow wizz said all along that it would be cool and showery...

[Guest]

Ok TT sea tac has gotten up to about 65* today which is 6 off of your prediction... They are down to 62* though which doesn't come off well for you...

[Guest]

Currently 71 degrees and sunny at my house.

Not too bad considering its still before 11 a.m.

We could be pushing 80 degrees here by afternoon.

wow that is a good prediction... You predict something on the same day that you are predicting for...

[Guest]

But I am sure I will get no credit.

While it was cold and rainy last week I said this would happen. But I guess I am completely off-base!!

YOu make a prediction on thursday that friday would be no warmer than the low 70's... And then friday morning at 11 when you see you are going to be wrong, you make a prediction that you could get up to 80* and when you do you ask for credit... Making a prediction the same day that you are predicting for, that is more of an observation and not a prediction... Why would you get credit for that?

[Guest]

77 degrees here now.

Just 3 degrees shy of 80 and its not even noon. Although... I assume Brennan wil say that we are not "pushing 80 degrees" until we get to 79.9 degrees!!

So... I will just call this a warm day for April.

Why would you assume something like that.. I never said anything about it not pushing 80 on friday.. You were the one that said Sea-Tac wouldn't get above 68... Where do you come off saying that i predicted it wouldn't make 80 on friday...You said it would sunday, not friday.

[Guest]

Correction... Sea-Tac got up to 78 degrees. So close!!

Actually warmer than even I thought Sea-Tac would get in this warm spell.


That high temperature is 19 degrees above normal. It will end up being 14 degrees above normal for the day. Remember... the coldest day this month was 7 degrees below normal.


Yet... there seems to a couple days like this every April.

Overall... a very normal month.

Ok you say Sea-Tac's high was 19* above normal... Which is true... and then you come off saying this month is overall very normal... 19* above normal,,,, how is that normal?

[Guest]

Snow_Wizzard...

I have constantly said how knowledgable you are on local weather history.

I have also said many times that you are nice guy and pretty reasonable. I stand by those comments 100%.

Not sure why you got so mad so fast.

My last comment is factual. This is basically a normal month. Spring is a battle. Warm and cold.

We have cool periods and warm periods. All warm or all cold would be atypical. A see-saw battle is normal. It just a fact of life.

In the Midwest... spring is much more dramatic than here. But even our weather is quite changeable in the spring.

My posts that highlighted your quotes from last week was done out of frustration on my part... and with a smile (that I forgot to add). I felt like I nailed this pattern and some of you were still ripping me. Finding technicalities to ding me on. I am sorry that you got so mad.

I really would miss this debate. I guess I just look at this board as a place to talk with people that have the same interest in weather that I do. I never really take offense when I get ripped apart. Even when I give you guys a pretty good forecast!!

So... I am asking you to stick around. You would be sorely missed.

You say that it is factual that this is a normal month... It would be normal for temps to be about 5 degrees above normal for a week and then 5 degrees below normal for the week after... When we have temps as far below normal as we had just recently, and then we got straight to temps in the upper 70's and 10-15 degrees above normal, THAT IS AN ABNORMAL WAY TO GET NORMAL MONTHLY TEMPERATURES... It is your opinion that this month is a typical april month... The way you look at it, which is the final average, sure it LOOKS NORMAL if you don't look in depth to how that average happened through the course of the month... You are missing a piece there.

[Guest]

I have been ripped apart by Brennan... and I stay.


Brennan... not everyone thought it was going to be warm. And definitely not this warm. Nobody else predicted 80 degrees in places.

at the beginning of last week, 5 days ago or so, everyone knew it was going to get warm... And you didn't predict 80 on friday for the 100,000th time.. YOU SAID SUNDAY.. that would be like predicting a high temp of 15 on january 22nd, and a high of 32 on the 24th and then having the high on the 24th be 15 instead of on the 22nd.... You would rip me apart if i did that... And i sure as hell wouldn't say, OH BUT I WAS ONLY 2 DAYS OFF, YOU HAVE TO GIVE ME CREDIT FOR MY OVERALL PREDICTION... NO, i wouldn't pull that crap like you like to do.

[Guest]

Spring is definitely the time of year for thunderstorms in Western Washington. Even severe.

This is from the Seattle NWS Spotter News (off their web site). This is the Spring Edition...

Thunderstorm season is here! Longer warmer days combined with cool air aloft still streaming onshore from the northeast Pacific Ocean produces periods of unstable air and our annual thunderstorm season. We do not get many thunderstorms when compared to other areas of the country. Yet, even our thunderstorms can and have produced large hail, damaging winds, and tornados and waterspouts.

Our convection season usually begins around March 1st with two peaks, both during our transitional seasons into and out of winter -
fall and spring. April is usually our peak month for convection. In reviewing our history, April is clearly the most active month of the year.


Expect the unexpected in April. Wild swings and thunderstorms are typical during this month!!

Once again i will use this post against your opinion... If we are going to get thunderstorms, hail, all of that good type of weather, THIS is the month to have it in, and this is the month that is most likely to have it in... But all of that weather is not typical at any time of the year for us... ESPECIALLY NOT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS liek you even say...

There is a difference between saying that april is the most active month, and it is typical for thunderstorms and hail and lightning and tornadoes to happen. Sure that stuff can happen and does, but it ISN'T TYPICAL..

[andrewr]

Here is a local storm report from yesterday:

04/22/2005 0430 PM

6 miles S of Chehalis, Lewis County.

Funnel cloud, reported by public.


Public reports funnel cloud between 425 PM and 431 PM.
Unconfirmed reports that funnel cloud touched down.

[TT-SEA]

You do realize how stupid you sound?? Right??

Nobody on here (including you) doubts my forecasting abilities.

I was off on my timing but I nailed the pattern and you know it.

Sorry.


And you're seriously wasting time dude. Its like 75 degrees up there now!! Of course you guys thought it would be raining and in the mid-50s!!!

[Guest]

So TT, if thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, wild temperature swings are all typical for this month because this is the most active month and this is the month that all of that stuff CAN happen... i am going to rant about December through February....

December through february is the coldest months of the year for western washington...These months are typically when we get our snow, and cold weather... SO TT, when we get 12 inches of snow in the middle of January, is that TYPICAL ? I mean, it should be since those are about the only months that we do get our snow in... Sure it doesn't happen often, just like hail, thunderstorms, tornadoes, wild temperature swings don't happen often in the months that it can happen in like April, but it is typical right?

hail falls on average on less than 1/15 of the days in April... So about 2 days in april on average... That means that it is very unlikely to happen... I would not say 1 to 15 odds makes it happening normal.

[Guest]

That was from the NWS.

And we typically get some thunderstorms in April. It most common at this time of year. I would expect it at some point.

No thunderstorms in April would be abnormal.

That includes wind, hail (which we always get), and even weak tornadoes.

Last spring we had 8 tornadoes.

I still can't believe this post... So are you saying last spring was normal? because what i get out of this is that you are saying even weak tornadoes are common to happen here...

[Guest]

Yeah sure you were right about the pattern... but the pattern started about mid week and that is long gone... we are in the pattern that you predicted now so i think its time you stop ranting about the pattern change... IT IS LONG GONE... And sure i may sound stupid to you because you don't want to believe that you are wrong sometimes... YOU ARE WRONG MORE THAN YOU THINK... I credit you when you are right.. YES YOU GOT THE PATTERN CHANGE...

[Guest]

And no i don't doubt your forecasting abilities... ITS JUST STUPID THAT WHEN YOU ARE WRONG, you don't talk about being wrong, you talk about only the things you were RIGHT about and hope everyone forgets when you were wrong.

[Guest]

Everything i have said is from what i QUOTED YOU ON... IT is true stuff.. you just want to say that the stuff you are wrong about is insignificant... That is dumb...

[R-Dub]

Brennan get outside and enjoy this awesome weather, think you need to cool off a little

Lets not turn this awesome thread into a who is always right or wrong sort of a thing.
Just my 2 cents

Well back outside to enjoy the warmth

Currently High Clouds with a temp of 69 degrees and calm winds.

Will post some pics this evening.........

[TT-SEA]

Awesome R-Dub.

Enjoy it.

[andrewr]

I'm hearing thunder down to my south and east. The cells are going north and west and are actually headed right towards me. I hope to get some good action out of this.

[TT-SEA]

Awesome.

Partly cloudy and 71 degrees here now.