ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Ken711]

I feel that Michael Ventrice is pretty good an not about hyping anything either. He has got my attention...

Looks like one is a Hurricane Hazel track.

[gatorcane]

BIG shift west by NAM in the Bahamas north of Cuba out through 66 hours. Heading WNW/NW:

[TheStormExpert]

Once again the ridge is slightly stronger than forecasted by the two main global models.

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/782945817116016640

[meriland23]

I haven't seen landfall from GFS or Euro in days. All the models go OTS once near the OBX, don't know why people keep thinking it's trending west when it's trending OTS abd further from FL the more time passes

[RL3AO]

The differences come down to two things IMO.

1) The Euro is slower in the day 2 to 4 range likely due to a weaker and more progressive movement of the mid-level low over the Northeastern United States.
2) MASSIVE (YUGE!) differences with the southern part of the trough over the central US next week. The big differences seem to relate with the vorticity max west of British Columbia and whether it deepens the trough over the S plains.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAM heading for SE Florida!

[ronjon]

I haven't seen landfall from GFS or Euro in days. All the models go OTS once near the OBX, don't know why people keep thinking it's trending west when it's trending OTS abd further from FL the more time passes

See my model summary down thread - most globals shifted west from yesterday. And the Euro ensemble runs (50) have a good chuck of them (approx 20) over the FL peninsula. Now it could be a temporary shift, but look for trends in model runs that are consistent rather than focusing on individual tracks.

[NDG]

Euro is still beating GFS, the HWRF is just plain horrible with the track of Matthew, it has been too progressive and right biased.
They need to take it off the TVCN!

[ronjon]

More info from Jeff Masters blog on the ECM ensemble clustering method.

Track forecasts from the five European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line] during the first 72 hours. The red line is a version of the 12Z Saturday operational model track that has been adjusted and calibrated using a proprietary technique to account for systemic model errors.

[gatorcane]

NAM 84 hours, near landfall in Palm Beach County in South Florida, run ends at 84 hours with maybe a light turn to the NNW at the end:

[Blown Away]

More info from Jeff Masters blog on the ECM ensemble clustering method.

Track forecasts from the five European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line] during the first 72 hours. The red line is a version of the 12Z Saturday operational model track that has been adjusted and calibrated using a proprietary technique to account for systemic model errors.

What does this mean?

[gatorcane]

NAM 84 hours, near landfall in Palm Beach County in South Florida, run ends at 84 hours with maybe a light turn to the NNW at the end. Bottom graphic is the previous 06Z run so you can see the west shift there:

[RL3AO]

More info from Jeff Masters blog on the ECM ensemble clustering method.

Track forecasts from the five European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line] during the first 72 hours. The red line is a version of the 12Z Saturday operational model track that has been adjusted and calibrated using a proprietary technique to account for systemic model errors.

What does this mean?

I believe it's attempting to take the Euro ensembles that have handled the storm the best and cluster them into a forecast tool. These ensemble members appear to be getting the storm very close to Florida.

[xironman]

NAM 84 hours, near landfall in Palm Beach County in South Florida, run ends at 84 hours with maybe a light turn to the NNW at the end:

57's favorite model, after the NAVGEM.

[Bocadude85]

NAM 84 hours, near landfall in Palm Beach County in South Florida, run ends at 84 hours with maybe a light turn to the NNW at the end:

That is the farthest west the NAM has taken Matthew so far... however it is the NAM... but it hasn't been that horrible with the track thus far.

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/VORTEXJeff/status/782956842032959488

[gatorcane]

I agree but what the NAM is telling me is more ridging is possible once Matthew gets into the Bahamas.

[ronjon]

More info from Jeff Masters blog on the ECM ensemble clustering method.

Track forecasts from the five European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line] during the first 72 hours. The red line is a version of the 12Z Saturday operational model track that has been adjusted and calibrated using a proprietary technique to account for systemic model errors.

What does this mean?

From my non-MET view, it's an explanation of M Ventrice's 5 ensemble cluster runs that all track into FL from the 00z ECM ensemble run. Apparently a new method to view ensembles.

[northjaxpro]

lol.. Nothing like a bit of sly humour to take the edge of this situation of ttacking Matthew right now regarding the NAM.

[AutoPenalti]

Well NAM doesn't forecast cyclones but it does forecast atmospheric patterns.