ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Blown Away]

If I were to place a center on this thing based on radar, I would place it near the "X" in the following image...



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19.0N/74W IMO.

[Sanibel]

Still in the NHC bullseye on track. Center of the spaghetti models too.

The center could be less able to hold on to the deep convection while over 10,000 foot mountains so it slides south from the High pushing it. The way it looked this morning I was considering changing my handle to "Ed's Crowmaster" but I think the center will resolve over water and we'll see where it is. The further south the more intensity.


My foremost thought is that at slower forward speed than Charley that category 1 prediction by NHC off Sanibel is low.

[Emmett_Brown]

IR loop shows warming tops. Doesnt appear to be strengthening yet:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

chances of FAY pull a Charile Strength wise when it gets into the GOMEX is what???????

[tolakram]

Well here is an animation centered over 19, 74

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

Note you can make your own by editing this URL:

Code: Select all

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-8%20HURRICANE&lat=19&lon=-74&map=standard&zoom=1&info=vis&quality=85&type=Animation&numframes=7&width=1200&height=800&palette=ir.pal&mapcolor=white


remove &type=Animation for a still pic

&lat=19&lon=-74 determine location with lon being negative for this hemisphere.

[dixiebreeze]

Fay starting her nw move soon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Blown Away]

Getting N-S elongated, is that from disruption or is Fay goingto start a more WNW movement.

[Vortex]

1401 utc close imagery now shows the LLC beginning to tighten as it now moving into the gulf of gonave..from her on out look for steady organization to commence...

[txwatcher91]

Getting N-S elongated, is that from disruption or is Fay goingto start a more WNW movement.

Could be from this, weakness already in ridge.

[dixiebreeze]

1401 utc close imagery now shows the LLC beginning to tighten as it now moving into the gulf of gonave..from her on out look for steady organization to commence...

I believe that's correct Vortex and as the tropical points illustrate, she will not encounter disruption over eastern Cuba, but rather the flatter terrain of the western island.

[cycloneye]

The latest at 10:02 AM EDT:

[rockyman]

as the system moves off the coast, the north side will no longer be "smothered", so it should start building again....from a distance, this will appear as a more northerly movement...just like last night's expansion on the southern flank appeared as a SW movement.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah... Doesn't look like it's quite off the coast yet.

[tolakram]

Google map of Cuba terrain for those interested:

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&g ... 34&t=p&z=7

[NDG]

as the system moves off the coast, the north side will no longer be "smothered", so it should start building again....from a distance, this will appear as a more northerly movement...just like last night's expansion on the southern flank appeared as a SW movement.

Very good point

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has a graphic of the topografy of Cuba especially how tall are the mountains of the Sierra Maestra in Eastern Cuba?

[Sanibel]

If that tongue of High pressure over the GOM shown on that map is solid it should push Fay more west (bad scenario).

[hial2]

Does anyone has a graphic of the topografy of Cuba especially how tall are the mountains of the Sierra Maestra in Eastern Cuba?

Have you tried Google Earth?

[DESTRUCTION5]

If this crosses Cuba from S to N there will be very little effect if it moves paralel thats a different story..

[johngaltfla]

chances of FAY pull a Charile Strength wise when it gets into the GOMEX is what???????

Depends on the forward speed. I'll defer to the pros but once it hits the shallow 88-90 degree waters off our coast, should it follow the WC of Florida, then all bets are off. Charlie dived in pressure and skyrocketed in wind strength in less than 4 hours catching everyone here by surprise.