ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Derek,that is a good piece of information that will make those who decide in retirements to consider.

51 in Haiti is not going to get it done

That said, I expect the number to rise much further in Haiti

1,100 in Haiti wasn't enough to get Gordon retired. But what happens later, in Cuba, Mexico or the US, could do it.

[Cyclenall]

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iTupv76B68f8tC2Y3vOgZrHiH5WQ

death toll jumps to 51 in Haiti alone

I would not be surprised if it jumps over 1000. Gustav appeared to show no mercy this time around, it just stayed there for so long over the already wet country (Fay).

[KWT]

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iTupv76B68f8tC2Y3vOgZrHiH5WQ

death toll jumps to 51 in Haiti alone

Very sad news indeed Derek and hopefully it doesn't rise. I suspect if it comes into the US as a major hurricane odds are this will get retired through that as well.

[Valkhorn]

319 mph / 513 km/h / 142.5 m/s from the NW[/QUOTE]

31.9 mph is about 14.25 meters per second.

[jasons2k]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102827

[dwg71]

Ok, place your bets... what will nhc do with track in about 40 minutes. I will say it will be just an extension of the previous with land fall 10 miles left or right of current estimate and bring it there in about 4.5 days.

[mutley]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102827

Sobering.

[dwg71]

Linder mentions short term track changes could have long range effects. I wonder what effects a more northern trek around Jamaica will cause.

[mutley]

Ok, place your bets... what will nhc do with track in about 40 minutes. I will say it will be just an extension of the previous with land fall 10 miles left or right of current estimate and bring it there in about 4.5 days.

Small amount east...maybe...possibly...

[HouTXmetro]

Linder mentions short term track changes could have long range effects. I wonder what effects a more northern trek around Jamaica will cause.

North of Jamaica= more East/Faster
South= more West/Slower

??????

[cycloneye]

In what part of Jamaica is located the highest mountain?

[ColdFusion]

Ok, place your bets... what will nhc do with track in about 40 minutes. I will say it will be just an extension of the previous with land fall 10 miles left or right of current estimate and bring it there in about 4.5 days.

Small amount east...maybe...possibly...

They may hint more at the westward bend at the end of the run as the models have been reflecting.

[raindrops68]

I say just skirting the coast of Jamica and winds will be down to 60mph

[Ptarmigan]

Saturday will be the critical day to decide what actions should be taken.

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm betting NHC track shifts west...

More slower, better for Upper Texas....faster, not so good.

[KWT]

Probably just extend the previous forecast, see no reason to really change it.

I don't think they will shift where the center is, whilst it may well be the case the center has jogged to the NW recon didn't send through a vortex. Winds may hold at 60kts...

[tolakram]

In what part of Jamaica is located the highest mountain?

East central. I posted a graphic a while back and if you've installed the plugin you can see it here:

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

alternatively you can go to google maps and zoom in to see it:

http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ie=UT ... 2&t=p&z=11

Turn on the terrain view and zoom in closer to see the contour lines.

[AL Chili Pepper]

The really isn't much of a change in the model consensus, so why make a change?

Prediction = no change

[Sabanic]

Ok, place your bets... what will nhc do with track in about 40 minutes. I will say it will be just an extension of the previous with land fall 10 miles left or right of current estimate and bring it there in about 4.5 days.

Small amount east...maybe...possibly...

They may hint more at the westward bend at the end of the run as the models have been reflecting.

IMO the westward bend will not be near as prominent if Gustav gets into the gulf sooner & speeds up a bit which would probably occur if he moves north of the NHC's projection. They are already forecasting forward speed to increase in time.

[Sabanic]

I'm betting NHC track shifts west...

More slower, better for Upper Texas....faster, not so good.

Faster has less chance of getting near TX IMHO