ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5041 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:03 am

NAM did great with Hermine. Anyway, 12z NAM shows a gutted out low end TC approaching the SE FL coast at runs 84 hour end.
Last edited by toad strangler on Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5042 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:04 am

The NAM shows a much stronger "thumb" ridge to the NW of the Bahamas in the 12Z run than the 06Z forcing the cyclone more to the west.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5043 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:05 am

[quote="gatorcaneEUROagree but what the NAM is telling me is more ridging is possible once Matthew gets into the Bahamas.[/quote]

In your defense gatorcane, the short term, especially from EURO, does potentially show a bit stronger ridging in the 4-5 day range.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5044 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:07 am

Wow!!

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/782942174421934081


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5045 Postby WPBWeather » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:09 am



I second the question above and below about these model runs. This is not good, right?
Last edited by WPBWeather on Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5046 Postby bqknight » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:10 am



Beginner Question: What are these compared to the actual Euro?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5047 Postby xironman » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:11 am

toad strangler wrote:NAM did great with Hermine. Anyway, 12z NAM shows a gutted out low end TC approaching the SE FL coast at runs 84 hour end.

Once it is north of Florida into the true mid latitudes and inside 60 hours it is not so bad.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5048 Postby dukeblue219 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:13 am

bqknight wrote:


Beginner Question: What are these compared to the actual Euro?


They are variations on the European model where the initial conditions have been perturbed slightly. Since the initial conditions have a certain amount of real-world uncertainty, it helps to see what small changes can do to affect the overall result. In this case, the graph appears to show the 5 ensemble members with the least perturbation.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5049 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:16 am

bqknight wrote:


Beginner Question: What are these compared to the actual Euro?

Well these are ensembles relative to the EURO, some verify, some don't.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5050 Postby ronjon » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:16 am

dukeblue219 wrote:
bqknight wrote:


Beginner Question: What are these compared to the actual Euro?


They are variations on the European model where the initial conditions have been perturbed slightly. Since the initial conditions have a certain amount of real-world uncertainty, it helps to see what small changes can do to affect the overall result. In this case, the graph appears to show the 5 ensemble members with the least perturbation.


Read a couple of pages up thread. I believe its the 5 out of 50 ensemble runs that best match numerically the operational run through 72 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5051 Postby stormreader » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:20 am

gatorcane wrote:I agree but what the NAM is telling me is more ridging is possible once Matthew gets into the Bahamas.

That's what its all about. Steady ridging to take the storm very near Fl. My hunch has always been to somewhere near the Keys. I thought it would be a more gradual NW out of the Caribbean, but it looks to be more of a N shifting to WNW to NW toward extreme S Fl, I think.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5052 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:27 am

12Z GFS running, already looks like slightly more ridging in place at Init.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5053 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:29 am

gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS running, already looks like slightly more ridging in place at Init.


Looks like ridging is a bit stronger and storm motion a touch slower than 06z.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5054 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:32 am

through 18 hours, there has already been a major right shift in the MU
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5055 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:33 am

:(

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/782945817116016640


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5056 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:34 am

Alyono wrote:through 18 hours, there has already been a major right shift in the MU


I'm not seeing that...I'm seeing slower forward progress through 18.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5057 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:36 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Alyono wrote:through 18 hours, there has already been a major right shift in the MU


I'm not seeing that...I'm seeing slower forward progress through 18.


I'm also seeing slower motion, and a stronger ridge through 30 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5058 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:36 am

ridge looks a good bit stronger by hour 36...
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5059 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:37 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Alyono wrote:through 18 hours, there has already been a major right shift in the MU


I'm not seeing that...I'm seeing slower forward progress through 18.


came back a bit to the west. However, the slower motion may be good as that would result in it being slower to near the Carolinas, which would allow for it to turn
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5060 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:37 am

Through 36 more ridging...this is going to get much further west I'm afraid in the near term. Longer term it may save the Carolinas and NE.
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