Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Yukon Cornelius]

Heavy morning dews, high humidity, temps in the upper 60s and 70s.....spring is in the air.

[hriverajr]

Models don't look good for winter fun unfortunately. This winter so far has been a total tease in regards to models that show cold in the long term that does not materialize. We are running out of time. Oh well.

[harp]

The only thing I see that gives you guys in Texas some hope is the last couple of frames of the 12Z CMC.

[Haris]

Areas like ATL might have their first winter without a flake of snow in a looooong time. Thats a bigger deal. This was supposed to be a block buster winter according to many many pros like Bastardi for that area. Really crazy stuff.

[Portastorm]

Areas like ATL might have their first winter without a flake of snow in a looooong time. Thats a bigger deal. This was supposed to be a block buster winter according to many many pros like Bastardi for that area. Really crazy stuff.

Nearly every notable forecaster -- not just JB -- who does medium to long range and shares their stuff on social media indicated that all of the signs suggested a cold and stormy winter, especially early in 2019. Outside of the recent Arctic outbreak in the Midwest/Northeast and some storminess in the Rockies ... we all know what kind of winter it has been. As I have been saying, I think there will be a lot of learning going on as the professionals examine what went wrong with the forecasts and what they can learn. Apparently many of the atmospheric signals/indices ending up literally fighting each other and the end result was not what folks expected.

[wxman57]

Trend continues to be toward less cold air with Friday's front. 12Z GFS only takes the D-FW area down to 30-31F on Friday morning - a one-day light freeze. Canadian is colder, with a harder freeze Saturday but only pre-frontal rain.

[wxman57]

Areas like ATL might have their first winter without a flake of snow in a looooong time. Thats a bigger deal. This was supposed to be a block buster winter according to many many pros like Bastardi for that area. Really crazy stuff.

Nearly every notable forecaster -- not just JB -- who does medium to long range and shares their stuff on social media indicated that all of the signs suggested a cold and stormy winter, especially early in 2019. Outside of the recent Arctic outbreak in the Midwest/Northeast and some storminess in the Rockies ... we all know what kind of winter it has been. As I have been saying, I think there will be a lot of learning going on as the professionals examine what went wrong with the forecasts and what they can learn. Apparently many of the atmospheric signals/indices ending up literally fighting each other and the end result was not what folks expected.

I thought it would be colder and stormier as well. My two S2K coworkers, South Texas Storms and Arctic Thunder were quite bullish on a cold, stormy (winter weather) deep south. Outside of some cold rain and a few snow pellets as far south as Houston, the forecast hasn't panned out. I thought we might see some accumulating snow as far south as Houston this winter, but that's not looking as likely. Now there is finally some cold air in northern BC & Alberta, but will it be driven south through Texas in the coming weeks? I'm not ruling out some significant winter weather in Texas yet, but it's looking like that won't happen this week.

[Haris]

New euro !!!!! It needs to stop messing with me. Narrow snow band

[dhweather]

Areas like ATL might have their first winter without a flake of snow in a looooong time. Thats a bigger deal. This was supposed to be a block buster winter according to many many pros like Bastardi for that area. Really crazy stuff.

Nearly every notable forecaster -- not just JB -- who does medium to long range and shares their stuff on social media indicated that all of the signs suggested a cold and stormy winter, especially early in 2019. Outside of the recent Arctic outbreak in the Midwest/Northeast and some storminess in the Rockies ... we all know what kind of winter it has been. As I have been saying, I think there will be a lot of learning going on as the professionals examine what went wrong with the forecasts and what they can learn. Apparently many of the atmospheric signals/indices ending up literally fighting each other and the end result was not what folks expected.

Spot on, Portastorm. It stinks for everyone. I think everyone here enjoys seeing snow, but the signals as well as the models have not had a good handle on this year at all. About the only thing they have nailed to date was the polar vortex dropping in to the midwest.

I'm hoping that we at least see some rain soon, its been kind of dry lately, and that's a trend I don't like at all.

[wxman57]

New euro !!!!! It needs to stop messing with me. Narrow snow band

Bogus. Beware those light gray patches in above-freezing air behind a front.

[Haris]

New euro !!!!! It needs to stop messing with me. Narrow snow band

Bogus. Beware those light gray patches in above-freezing air behind a front.

When you put it that way, yeah, not looking too promising.

[dhweather]

Sure its long range, but it is interesting. At 204 hours, watch this trough develop and dig southwest from the Hudson Bay into northern Idaho, then dig into the four corners region. It's long range, so it likely does not happen, but it is interesting.

[Cpv17]

New euro !!!!! It needs to stop messing with me. Narrow snow band

Bogus. Beware those light gray patches in above-freezing air behind a front.

When you put it that way, yeah, not looking too promising.

That Euro run sucked to me. Pretty boring next 10 days imo. Not even that much rain for most of us. Too progressive.

[hriverajr]

74 at my home in Del Rio It will cool down later this upcoming week .

[wxman57]

Snow lovers in the D-FW area might want to check out the 336hr panel of the FV3-GFS. Oh, come on, it's surely going to happen THIS time!

I'll just post the URL to the image:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019020312/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_56.png

[rwfromkansas]

Seasonal forecasting is definitely a real area of weakness still. We just can't predict perfectly how all the indices will line up and how the weather will happen.

[bubba hotep]

NWS has 79F @ DFW tomorrow. The last 80F or above was when DFW hit 81F on 11/5/18.

[BrokenGlass]

Happy super bowl everyone!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[DonWrk]

Snow lovers in the D-FW area might want to check out the 336hr panel of the FV3-GFS. Oh, come on, it's surely going to happen THIS time!

I'll just post the URL to the image:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019020312/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_56.png

Yessss. Glad you’re being serious this time!

[Ntxw]

Snow lovers in the D-FW area might want to check out the 336hr panel of the FV3-GFS. Oh, come on, it's surely going to happen THIS time!

I'll just post the URL to the image:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019020312/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_56.png

The Oceans have been warming, so anomalies are changing with the running averages. A warm anomaly 30-50 years ago could be below 28C (slightly warm in today's averages). 28C is often the Ocean temperature that sustains tropical convection, so even though anomalies might be "less warm" it still sustains that convection. Perhaps what we are seeing over Indonesia before now even though warmer "anomalies" are over in the Pacific..so historical analogs and comparisons may not always work in today's background state.