ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cycloneye]

In what part of Jamaica is located the highest mountain?

East central. I posted a graphic a while back and if you've installed the plugin you can see it here:

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

alternatively you can go to google maps and zoom in to see it:

http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ie=UT ... 2&t=p&z=11

Turn on the terrain view and zoom in closer to see the contour lines.

Thank you for those great graphics.

[dixiebreeze]

This could be a poster for the history books:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg

[BigB0882]

I don't see much of a shift this update. Maybe the next. A few models are catching on to the idea of a western turn near the coast but it is relatively new and I don't think they will join the group just yet. Maybe next update though. If Gustav did take a little jog just north of west then I certainly don't see them shifting west just yet.

[dwg71]

Best case for East of current nhc path.. Slower in the short run, to give ridge enough time to erode, faster in 72 hour + to get in before high pressure builds from Ohio Valley. Further west, the opposite.

Just my amateur opinion.

[BigB0882]

Best case for East of current nhc path.. Slower in the short run, to give ridge enough time to erode, faster in 72 hour + to get in before high pressure builds from Ohio Valley. Further west, the opposite.

Just my amateur opinion.

Timing is key. I wish I could look into the future!

[Sanibel]

Whoa! Wicked outflow shooting out of the north quadrant.

No lack of energy there. Telegraphing intensity downrange.

Think I see center skimming half offshore under Kingston.

[pablolopez26]

This could be a poster for the history books:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg

Wow what a mess!

This is not including the 2 waves behind Hanna.

Crazy!

[tolakram]

In what part of Jamaica is located the highest mountain?

East central. I posted a graphic a while back and if you've installed the plugin you can see it here:

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

alternatively you can go to google maps and zoom in to see it:

http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ie=UT ... 2&t=p&z=11

Turn on the terrain view and zoom in closer to see the contour lines.

Thank you for those great graphics.

Most of the credit should go to google. For the earth plugin all I'm doing is telling google where to draw the position points when it renders the globe. The Google Earth plugin is really neat, though a bit unstable still.

[KWT]

dwg71, I don't think there is much of a best case, there is a slightly less dangerous case but too far eas then Mobile gets huge problems, too far westbrings W.LA into play and maybe SE Texas, over the NHC path and N.O is at risk.

Anyway center looks neatly inland now, convecton still blowing up on the western side and pretty much all over the system. Not a sign of a system weakening in any hurry.

[dwg71]

Whoa! Wicked outflow shooting out of the north quadrant.

No lack of energy there. Telegraphing intensity downrange.

Think I see center skimming half offshore under Kingston.

I think that is an eddy...

[bostonseminole]

In what part of Jamaica is located the highest mountain?

NE I think

[LowndesCoFire]

TWC just said plans to evacuate and "lock down" NOLA are in the works. All I have to say is the sooner the better.

[Cyclenall]

I just love watching that blowup on the north side in loops, just shoots up like a stock. Yes, the outflow on it is incredible. It should be saved.

[tolakram]

I'm thinking the center moved west so it's just offshore south of Kingston. There's a blowup of convection there as well.



4 hours old:

[lamsalfl]

landfall?

[Wx_Warrior]

TWC...Give me a break!

They would start late tomorrow, early Saturday (According to the governor's office).

[gboudx]

landfall?

Looks like it on the IR and Water Vapor loops.

[KWT]

Well recon found west winds further north from there tolakram about 2hrs ago but its hard to say whether that was an eddy or not.

If the circulation is near Kingston then the obs from there should give a pretty clear answer in a short while.

[N2Storms]

[quote="lamsalfl"]landfall?[/quote]


Even though landfall is expected to be well west of Panama City the NWS mentions that Gustav could still pose a significant heavy rainfall threat for the FL Panhandle


weather.gov
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Current Version

000
FXUS62 KTAE 281902
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TAKES THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WELL
OFF TO OUR WEST...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TRACK FCST. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN WITH A TRACK WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE FL PANHANDLE...THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR A LONG FETCH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF GUSTAV WHICH
COULD EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS ALL THE WAY NORTHWARD UP THE
WESTERN FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. THIS ALONE
MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION...FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

[poof121]

You would think the center would be north of Kingston with the winds out of the WNW...

Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 72 °F / 22 °C
Wind: 34 mph / 56 km/h / 15.4 m/s from the WNW
Pressure: 29.36 in / 994 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 85 °F / 29 °C
Visibility: -
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1600 ft / 487 m
Mostly Cloudy 3000 ft / 914 m
Overcast 10000 ft / 3048 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft / 9 m