ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

[theweatherwatch]

T numbers way up there, could be only a few hours away from really bombing.

Here is a image showing the trend in the T numbers:



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 958.0mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.8 6.2

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks west to me....

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[eastcoastFL]

i am pretty sure this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html went due west for at least 2 and a half hours. maybe this will be the first forecast point that she misses to the west?

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[tropicwatch]

IS there a radar in the bahamas that we will be able to get a good look at soon?

Here is a good loop where movement can be depicted since an eye is forming.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Tropicwatch

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240400
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 39 20110824
035000 2142N 07118W 6966 03101 9996 +089 //// 152052 054 038 004 01
035030 2144N 07117W 6970 03103 0000 +085 //// 148053 053 043 005 05
035100 2145N 07117W 6967 03102 9999 +086 //// 148054 055 054 015 01
035130 2147N 07116W 6957 03116 0002 +081 //// 152058 061 052 018 01
035200 2149N 07115W 6964 03105 //// +075 //// 146055 060 049 018 01
035230 2151N 07115W 6974 03091 //// +064 //// 132058 063 053 020 01
035300 2153N 07114W 6961 03108 //// +061 //// 131056 058 054 022 01
035330 2155N 07114W 6975 03093 //// +059 //// 134053 057 050 013 05
035400 2156N 07113W 6963 03112 0007 +077 //// 139049 052 049 008 05
035430 2158N 07112W 6962 03115 0015 +082 //// 141056 058 049 008 01
035500 2159N 07110W 6970 03106 0014 +084 //// 139061 062 048 004 01
035530 2201N 07109W 6966 03117 0018 +082 //// 138059 061 047 005 01
035600 2202N 07108W 6967 03116 0013 +088 +085 138060 060 049 003 00
035630 2204N 07107W 6965 03121 0024 +078 //// 136064 064 048 005 01
035700 2205N 07106W 6968 03120 0022 +084 //// 135063 064 046 005 01
035730 2207N 07105W 6968 03119 0030 +073 //// 136061 063 045 007 01
035800 2208N 07104W 6968 03122 0036 +076 //// 136061 062 045 010 01
035830 2210N 07103W 6966 03131 0037 +075 //// 132061 061 046 012 01
035900 2211N 07102W 6954 03138 //// +073 //// 134054 062 044 029 01
035930 2213N 07101W 6992 03087 //// +077 //// 140050 059 050 021 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 240355
XXAA 74047 99212 70721 08012 99980 25803 11076 00679 ///// /////
92508 22404 13600 85244 19603 14588 70899 07800 15588 88999 77999
31313 09608 80333
61616 AF302 1109A IRENE OB 15
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2132N07215W 0338 MBL WND 12598 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 14090 979698 WL150 11590 084 REL 2123N07209W 033357 SPG 213
2N07215W 033812 =
XXBB 74048 99212 70721 08012 00980 25803 11850 19603 22751 15205
33713 11802 44698 07200
21212 00980 11076 11979 11077 22978 11086 33976 11590 44967 11590
55959 12097 66953 12610 77943 12601 88872 14097 99865 14088 11850
14588 22698 15588
31313 09608 80333
61616 AF302 1109A IRENE OB 15
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2132N07215W 0338 MBL WND 12598 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 14090 979698 WL150 11590 084 REL 2123N07209W 033357 SPG 213
2N07215W 033812 =
;

Eyewall dropsonde 79 kt surface winds.

[SouthDadeFish]

A very eerie nighttime visible image:



Most defined eye we've seen thus far.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

IS there a radar in the bahamas that we will be able to get a good look at soon?

The only one I've ever found is here:

http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/index. ... reflecanim

It doesn't work for me.

[CronkPSU]

is recon out there? checking this "real time" loop, it has been moving west the past two hours

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-70&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=10&palette=spect.pal

nevermind..found it

[eastcoastFL]

dolebot_Broward_NW,

when we are talking about things being DAYS away how can we be so sure that these steering currents wont change or that the trough will weaken? I highly doubt the trough change you can now see it plain as day coming straight at irene but the steering currents could change, couldnt they? I mean this storm is still 48 hrs from the nw bahamas /

[Dave]

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde suggests pressure now 968mb (969/14).

[SouthDadeFish]

Edit: nvm just noticed a recon pic was already posted. The two VDM's show a more recent westward jog. I doubt it means much in the long run.

[eastcoastFL]

looks like its gone about .4deg to the west and nothing to the north in the past few hours.

[tropicwatch]

IS there a radar in the bahamas that we will be able to get a good look at soon?

Here is a good loop where movement can be depicted since an eye is forming.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Tropicwatch

Sorry try this, select animation and about twenty frames nice loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[eastcoastFL]

thank you. should be helpfull

[MGC]

latest recon has a 35 mile wide closed eye...Irene is a big girl.....MGC

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240410
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 40 20110824
040000 2215N 07100W 6959 03133 //// +077 //// 134062 064 052 018 01
040030 2216N 07100W 6971 03119 //// +073 //// 136068 071 049 015 01
040100 2218N 07059W 6966 03123 //// +071 //// 139068 069 049 015 01
040130 2220N 07058W 6964 03129 //// +077 //// 139067 071 047 011 01
040200 2221N 07057W 6973 03121 0031 +080 //// 140069 070 047 011 01
040230 2223N 07056W 6954 03143 //// +073 //// 138065 068 047 011 01
040300 2225N 07055W 6967 03131 //// +072 //// 135065 066 047 013 05
040330 2227N 07055W 6969 03137 //// +069 //// 132062 065 /// /// 05
040400 2227N 07057W 6964 03138 //// +067 //// 131060 062 /// /// 05
040430 2227N 07059W 6969 03127 //// +070 //// 130059 062 049 013 05
040500 2227N 07101W 6966 03133 //// +076 //// 131063 065 049 011 01
040530 2227N 07104W 6965 03135 //// +079 //// 131063 065 048 008 01
040600 2227N 07106W 6968 03130 0027 +087 //// 129061 062 048 008 01
040630 2227N 07108W 6967 03126 0029 +086 //// 131063 066 046 009 01
040700 2227N 07111W 6970 03122 0026 +086 //// 131066 067 047 008 01
040730 2227N 07113W 6966 03133 0023 +091 //// 133062 064 048 007 01
040800 2227N 07115W 6969 03127 0018 +093 //// 133061 062 049 006 01
040830 2227N 07117W 6965 03128 0022 +088 //// 128060 061 049 006 01
040900 2227N 07120W 6961 03133 0026 +086 //// 127060 061 049 007 01
040930 2227N 07122W 6969 03122 0025 +084 //// 128063 065 051 007 05
$$
;

[Dave]