ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[beoumont]

My main impression viewing today's late visible satellite loops is the very large and expanding area of coverage this system's apparent cloud circulation covers. Low level cloud elements headed toward the center from hundreds of miles away in every direction. For what it's worth.

[HurriGuy]

I assume recon won't be back until tomorrow?

[RL3AO]

Just looking at the big picture, this has improved drastically over the past 36 hours. Outflow looks much better since this morning.

[tropicwatch]

I think the hurricane hunters might find a better organized system If this trend continues. Looks like the mlc is near the western tip of Cuba.




http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-85&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&zoom=2&numframes=15

[tpr1967]

The models initialization point was wrong. Storm is way WSW of those plot beginnings. Where's this big trough?





Follow NHC for real storm details.

If anything TD09 was East of the Model initialization points today.

[psyclone]

I agree regarding outflow...It is vastly improved. It'll be interesting to see if this gets a mention in the upcoming discussion. I hope Stewart is on duty.

[Aric Dunn]

I think the hurricane hunters might find a better organized system If this trend continues. Looks like the mlc is near the western tip of Cuba.




http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-85&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&zoom=2&numframes=15

that likely farther south,...

[RL3AO]

Crude artwork showing the improved outflow in WV imagery.

[HurriGuy]

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/770441654251630592

[Aric Dunn]

yes its the nam.. but for the 4 straight run the trough has been faster and and less of an erosion of the ridge. lets see if the global models see the same thing .

[SeGaBob]

Any chance the track shifts north and west at 11?

[Aric Dunn]

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/770441654251630592

2am take off ? 0200z is not 2am ...

[rolltide]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&AGE=Latest&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=GulfOfMexico-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&PAGETYPE=static&SIZE=Full&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/GulfOfMexico-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

If you look right at sunset you can see the northern circulation collapse as the mid level circulation to the south takes over.

[gatorcane]

I would like to see what the NHC says about the center at 11pm. Might it be relocating further south?

[RL3AO]

Forgive the fairly crude maps. Just wanted to check out calculated divergence at 200 mb on the GFS. Still shows a solid upper air environment.

[Aric Dunn]

I would like to see what the NHC says about the center at 11pm. Might it be relocating further south?

if stewart does it.. anyone else would just say the cliche standard stuff

[Frank P]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&AGE=Latest&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=GulfOfMexico-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&PAGETYPE=static&SIZE=Full&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/GulfOfMexico-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

If you look right at sunset you can see the northern circulation collapse as the mid level circulation to the south takes over.

Nice sat loop, TD9 keeps this up they may have to put out warnings for the Yutacan... hehe

[psyclone]

Any chance the track shifts north and west at 11?

certainly could. it's already shifted a touch north of where it had been. Looks like the 5 pm advisory had a Dixie county landfall. We're about to find out

[HurriGuy]

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/770441654251630592

2am take off ? 0200z is not 2am ...

I have no idea. They had another tweet talking about how they were preparing to take back off soon.

I would go with the 2AM EDT liftoff

[indianforever]

Has there ever been a storm that has went completely opposite than what was forecasted?