ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[La Sirena]

I am trying to pack my things to evacuate tomorrow..I can't find the most current update ad really don't have time to dig for it..can 1 of you please tell me is they are leaning towards it going up the gulf side or the east side or crossing over or the the horrible horrible going down the middle scenario thanks

NHC won't make an adjustment to the cone till 5 am I believe.

[Patricia]

Asking again about Melbourne. Thoughts please as no one answered before. Thank you.

[Hurrilurker]

St. Barts may get it even worse than Barbuda. From what I can tell, Irma's center missed Barbuda a little to the right (i.e. not quite the strongest winds) but St. Parts may get a direct hit or slightly to the left which would be a total disaster. Also more people, something like 10,000-15,000 (depending on tourism). The island may disrupt Irma a tiny bit though, as it has a 938 foot mountain on it, and a number of somewhat smaller ones. I was there once and as I recall the hills rise rather steeply from the water.

[drewschmaltz]

I am trying to pack my things to evacuate tomorrow..I can't find the most current update ad really don't have time to dig for it..can 1 of you please tell me is they are leaning towards it going up the gulf side or the east side or crossing over or the the horrible horrible going down the middle scenario thanks

First, I think it would be crazy to make any important plans based on anything you read on this forum.

To answer your question, over in the models thread they are talking about how there is starting to be model consensus of east coast - and it seems like a true FL landfall is absolutely no guarantee.

[La Sirena]

I am trying to pack my things to evacuate tomorrow..I can't find the most current update ad really don't have time to dig for it..can 1 of you please tell me is they are leaning towards it going up the gulf side or the east side or crossing over or the the horrible horrible going down the middle scenario thanks

Trending East.

I'm still holding out for 24 hours on these trends. We will know better tomorrow....hopefully lol.

[Sciencerocks]

When was the last cat5 to hit the northern leewards at cat5 strength?

[FLeastcoast]

I am trying to pack my things to evacuate tomorrow..I can't find the most current update ad really don't have time to dig for it..can 1 of you please tell me is they are leaning towards it going up the gulf side or the east side or crossing over or the the horrible horrible going down the middle scenario thanks

First, I think it would be crazy to make any important plans based on anything you read on this forum. Thanks..my plans are already made..heading to knoxville...i have family that won't leave in south fl and on the gulf side so just trying to keep track.

To answer your question, over in the models thread they are talking about how there is starting to be model consensus of east coast - and it seems like a true FL landfall is absolutely no guarantee.

thank you for the info much appreciated

[1900hurricane]

When was the last cat5 to hit the northern leewards at cat5 strength?

1780 maybe?

[Hurrilurker]

When was the last cat5 to hit the northern leewards at cat5 strength?

Really good question and I'm not even sure it has happened. To me it looks like the closest was Hugo in 1989, but I think it was still Cat-4 when passing the northern islands. Isabel was Cat-5 around that longitude, but pretty significantly north of the islands. Before that the 1928 Okechobee hurricane was close. Much more rare than I had thought.

[AubreyStorm]

When was the last cat5 to hit the northern leewards at cat5 strength?

Really good question and I'm not even sure it has happened. To me it looks like the closest was Hugo in 1985, but I think it was still Cat-4 when passing the northern islands. Isabel was Cat-5 around that longitude, but pretty significantly north of the islands. Before that the 1928 Okechobee hurricane was close. Much more rare than I had thought.

Hugo 1989

[drezee]

Next station that should get into Irma's eye

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... L3#history

[joey]

what i see from tonights run is that irma will slow down in the bahamas which give the trof a chance to catch her if she doesnt slow down she gets further west all about timing for now imo

[bahamaswx]

She's lost a lot of symmetry. Not nearly as beautiful as earlier today!

[Hurrilurker]

When was the last cat5 to hit the northern leewards at cat5 strength?

Really good question and I'm not even sure it has happened. To me it looks like the closest was Hugo in 1985, but I think it was still Cat-4 when passing the northern islands. Isabel was Cat-5 around that longitude, but pretty significantly north of the islands. Before that the 1928 Okechobee hurricane was close. Much more rare than I had thought.

Hugo 1989

Sorry corrected.

[sponger]

When was the last cat5 to hit the northern leewards at cat5 strength?

Really good question and I'm not even sure it has happened. To me it looks like the closest was Hugo in 1985, but I think it was still Cat-4 when passing the northern islands. Isabel was Cat-5 around that longitude, but pretty significantly north of the islands. Before that the 1928 Okechobee hurricane was close. Much more rare than I had thought.

Hugo 1989

I was dumb and foolish enough to attempt to surf it near Vero. Almost drowned when debris nearly landed on me.

[MatthewsRevenge]

She's lost a lot of symmetry. Not nearly as beautiful as earlier today!

She better not be making a new eye but I guess after hitting some land, it loses its size... but I can see it growing again due to the warm waters it's about to cross.

[1900hurricane]

Still 160 kt as of the 06Z best track update. That's 18 hours now, tying Tip '79 and Patricia '15 at >=160 kt. Irma still trails Haiyan '13 and Meranti '16.

[southwest southerner]

Next station that should get into Irma's eye

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... L3#history

Anguilla. My favorite place in the world. Visited many times.

Gonna be hard to watch.

[Chris90]

Hugo did reach category 5 status, but it was east of the islands and it didn't maintain it. Came in as a 4 through the islands.

It looks like Barbuda is getting the southeast portion of the eyewall now, and one of the last dropsondes from recon was in the SE eyewall, measuring an average of 150kts in the lowest 150m. Looks like the back side of the storm might be worse for them than the front was.

[Hurrilurker]

Next station that should get into Irma's eye

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... L3#history

Pressure in inches, yuck. Multiply by 33.86 to get mb.