Texas Winter 2013-2014

[opticsguy]

Wxmaps.org doesn't have today's 00Z GFS meteograms updated. Can someone post one for DFW? thanks.

[horselattitudesfarm]

I have moved from the DFW area to western North Carolina and , wow!, what a difference 900 miles to the east makes. We are living under that huge trough and have had lows of 0 degrees a couple of times now. The ponds are frozen over and even the streams and rivers are getting sheets of ice on the edges. The weather here is very dynamic and changes much quicker than what I've seen in Dallas the last few years. The mountains seem to block some of the snow and cold that has been hitting the Ohio valley and places only 100 miles to our north are getting lots more snow.

[Ntxw]

I have moved from the DFW area to western North Carolina and , wow!, what a difference 900 miles to the east makes. We are living under that huge trough and have had lows of 0 degrees a couple of times now. The ponds are frozen over and even the streams and rivers are getting sheets of ice on the edges. The weather here is very dynamic and changes much quicker than what I've seen in Dallas the last few years. The mountains seem to block some of the snow and cold that has been hitting the Ohio valley and places only 100 miles to our north are getting lots more snow.

Of course it would be . That's the latitude of Northern Oklahoma/Kansas with elevation. Dallas has Charleston's latitude!

[Ntxw]

The NAM and CMC seems to be the two wanting to kick things out while Euro, GFS, and Ukmet says nuh uh keeping it stuck in the baja and dry cold.

[wxman57]

Overnight GFS is still quite dry for TX on Tue/Wed. Just cold and dry. NAM is trending that way. I do like the GFS forecast of low to mid 70s next weekend.

[Ntxw]

Overnight GFS is still quite dry for TX on Tue/Wed. Just cold and dry. NAM is trending that way. I do like the GFS forecast of low to mid 70s next weekend.

On a serious note, what do you think of the ECMWF/GEFS ensemble shuffling the ridging and longwave pattern to -EPO/-PNA?

[wxman57]

Overnight GFS is still quite dry for TX on Tue/Wed. Just cold and dry. NAM is trending that way. I do like the GFS forecast of low to mid 70s next weekend.

On a serious note, what do you think of the ECMWF/GEFS ensemble shuffling the ridging and longwave pattern to -EPO/-PNA?

I think the first 90F day is looking like it won't occur in February...

[Ntxw]

One can still dream, 1986

[Portastorm]

Overnight GFS is still quite dry for TX on Tue/Wed. Just cold and dry. NAM is trending that way. I do like the GFS forecast of low to mid 70s next weekend.

Let's see how you like the 3z SREF, the one showing anywhere from .50 to 1.25 QPF from Waco down I-35 to San Antonio to Laredo, over to Corpus and back to Houston, and up to Lufkin. In fact, it suggests another wintry slop mess for portions of central and south central Texas.



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[Big O]

6z GFS has freezing rain, sleet, and some snow for most of south Texas beginning Tuesday morning and ending Wednesday morning. Let's see if it, the CMC, and NAM hold serve on their respective 12z runs. In addition, let's see if the 12z Euro begins to pick up the shortwave rounding the base of the trough. This definitely bears watching.

[Portastorm]

On a comment on the NAM per wxman57's earlier post ... it is looking drier overall if one compares the 12z run to the overnight 0z. However, for those that would get precip under the NAM (those along the Texas coast), the precip amounts are actually HEAVIER in the 12z compared to the 0z run. That means if the cold air can get there, you folks along the coast might be in for some winter fun.

The model looks to develop a coastal trough and it is trending further south with the upper level energy inbound from Mexico.

I would point out that I think the NAM performed poorly with this past "event." We never had a coastal trough develop like the NAM and the SREF, even, suggested. It was just a mild-looking upper level system with good Pacific inflow. And the Euro wasn't all that great either. Actually, the GFS did quite well. So at this point, I'm kinda leaning towards the colder/drier (for most of the state) GFS scenario. But the model trends this weekend will be followed closely at the PWC.

Who knows, North Texas had their Icemageddon, we in South Central Texas just had ours, maybe it's South Texas' turn this time. Whaddya say Big O, Rgv20, and cctxhurricanewatcher?

[opticsguy]

Just noticed Verhojansk, RU was at -67F! Any cross-polar flow is going to be mighty cold.

People in rural areas up North are out of propane and are now using space heaters. It's not in the news now, but will be soon.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Overnight GFS is still quite dry for TX on Tue/Wed. Just cold and dry. NAM is trending that way. I do like the GFS forecast of low to mid 70s next weekend.

On a serious note, what do you think of the ECMWF/GEFS ensemble shuffling the ridging and longwave pattern to -EPO/-PNA?

I think the first 90F day is looking like it won't occur in February...

Probably won't in March either given the trend. Maybe April

[Big O]

On a comment on the NAM per wxman57's earlier post ... it is looking drier overall if one compares the 12z run to the overnight 0z. However, for those that would get precip under the NAM (those along the Texas coast), the precip amounts are actually HEAVIER in the 12z compared to the 0z run. That means if the cold air can get there, you folks along the coast might be in for some winter fun.

The model looks to develop a coastal trough and it is trending further south with the upper level energy inbound from Mexico.

I would point out that I think the NAM performed poorly with this past "event." We never had a coastal trough develop like the NAM and the SREF, even, suggested. It was just a mild-looking upper level system with good Pacific inflow. And the Euro wasn't all that great either. Actually, the GFS did quite well. So at this point, I'm kinda leaning towards the colder/drier (for most of the state) GFS scenario. But the model trends this weekend will be followed closely at the PWC.

Who knows, North Texas had their Icemageddon, we in South Central Texas just had ours, maybe it's South Texas' turn this time. Whaddya say Big O, Rgv20, and cctxhurricanewatcher?

I sure wouldn't mind that (understatement).

[CYCLONE MIKE]

On a comment on the NAM per wxman57's earlier post ... it is looking drier overall if one compares the 12z run to the overnight 0z. However, for those that would get precip under the NAM (those along the Texas coast), the precip amounts are actually HEAVIER in the 12z compared to the 0z run. That means if the cold air can get there, you folks along the coast might be in for some winter fun.

The model looks to develop a coastal trough and it is trending further south with the upper level energy inbound from Mexico.

I would point out that I think the NAM performed poorly with this past "event." We never had a coastal trough develop like the NAM and the SREF, even, suggested. It was just a mild-looking upper level system with good Pacific inflow. And the Euro wasn't all that great either. Actually, the GFS did quite well. So at this point, I'm kinda leaning towards the colder/drier (for most of the state) GFS scenario. But the model trends this weekend will be followed closely at the PWC.

Agree 100%, said this a few times in "our" thread. The nam never had the ice and sleet making it into la until it was already obvious. Kept evaporating and pushing offshore west of lake charles. Gfs did much better for us than any of the other models. Dont have any idea aboutnthe cmc though as to what it showed.

The 6z gfs did show some winter weather trying to break out over us but keeps it right along the coast whereas last night run showed nothing.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS no phase and lags baja low, still mostly dry

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS has trended a bit stronger with the closed core upper air disturbance crossing Mexico early next week and is not cutting that feature off ~vs~ what it has been suggesting. A more progressive disturbance that continues moving E would tend to favor increased over running and precip developing after the Arctic air mass is firmly entrenched across our Region. There are also hints of yet another Coastal trough developing which further increases the odds that more wintry weather may well be possible, albeit light. We will see.

[stormlover2013]

I agree, and u also have to look at the trends!! Models don't get a good clamp on it until about 30 hours or so, so if this trend keeps it up then here we go!!

[timmeister]

On a comment on the NAM per wxman57's earlier post ... it is looking drier overall if one compares the 12z run to the overnight 0z. However, for those that would get precip under the NAM (those along the Texas coast), the precip amounts are actually HEAVIER in the 12z compared to the 0z run. That means if the cold air can get there, you folks along the coast might be in for some winter fun.

The model looks to develop a coastal trough and it is trending further south with the upper level energy inbound from Mexico.

Here is an excerpt from the Area Forecast Discussion issued by the NWS Jackson MS that's in agreement with your analysis:

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK...AND THERE ARE GROWING INDICATIONS THAT THE RISK
FOR AT LEAST LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ON THE INCREASE FOR AT
LEAST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH MOST COLD FRONTS THIS WINTER SEASON...
EXPECT AN EARLY MORNING ARRIVAL FOR THE FRONT MONDAY. THIS WILL
MAKE TEMPERATURES TRICKY GIVEN THE STRONG MIXING THAT WILL TEND TO
NEGATE THE SURFACE COLD ADVECTION SOME INITIALLY IN THE
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD POTENTIAL AND EVEN A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTTHIS TIME AROUND WHICH COULD
HASTEN THE COOLING TREND. FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MOST PART MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT THAT WILL LIKELY SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THERE MAY BE GREATER FUNNELING OF THE COLD
AIR THROUGH THE UPPER DELTA REGION AND HAVE CUT TEMPERATURES THERE A
BIT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THICKER CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ARKLAMISS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE AND HAVE RAISED
GUIDANCE VALUES THERE.

A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE BEARISH
WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A NUMBER OF
MODELS (GEM/GEFS/SREF/NAM) INDICATE JUST ENOUGH BACKING OF THE MID
LEVEL FLOW/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL HELP TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...THIS PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE NAM SHOWS A
PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WOULD INCREASE THE ODDS FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MONDAY NIGHT. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE
COLUMN WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TUESDAY...AND THE GEM AND
SEVERAL GEFS/SREF MEMBERS ACTUALLY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW. BUT GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF GUIDANCE IS ON THE DRY
SIDE...WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.

WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR MORE DIGGING OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND GREATER ENERGY ROUNDING ITS BASE THAT COULD INCREASE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. THE 06Z GFS INDICATES THAT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER > 1 INCH
WILL BE NEAR THE GULF COAST AND MASS FIELDS SUGGEST IT ONLY TAKE
SLIGHT PERTURBATIONS TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN QPF AS WAS THE CASE
IN THE PAST EVENT OVER LA/SRN MS.

[Big O]

12z GFS shows 2-4 inches of snow between CRP and San Antonio, south of a line from Del Rio to San Antonio to just south of Houston and north of a line from Zapata to just NW of CRP to Victoria. The trend is my friend...for now.