Texas Winter 2010-2011

[JGrin87]

Love Field in Dallas now at freezing - reporting freezing rain at 32

[CaptinCrunch]

going to bed, but here at the house sleet/rain mix 34 degrees 1:54 am, 2 hrs a head of forecast.

[HockeyTx82]

Off to bed here as well. I sure hope to wake up and see some white stuff. I already got the day off so I am doing ok. Stay safe out there and take heed of the NWS warnings and do what they say.

[iorange55]

Well least my dogs are staying up with me.

[CaptinCrunch]

.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE THIS
EVENING WITH A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SWINGING EASTWARD OUT OF
NEW MEXICO. UPWARD FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EVIDENT BY RAPIDLY
COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH TEXAS AND
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST HOUR.
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S NORTH OF
A COMANCHE TO PARIS LINE...AND 50S AND 60S FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER
THE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR IS STILL A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BUT IS
MAKING SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. TEMPS OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS COLD AIR WILL
AFFECT WESTERN COUNTIES FIRST...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EAST AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE AND
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO POUR SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THERE APPEARS TO BE
A PERIOD OF TWO OR THREE HOURS WHERE SOME MODERATE FREEZING RAIN
COULD OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FROM NEAR
GRAHAM TO BOWIE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE 00Z NAM
AND 02Z RUC INDICATE THAT THE 1000-850MB LAYER WILL COOL QUICKLY
TO BELOW FREEZING SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER A STOUT WARM
NOSE WILL PERSIST AROUND 800MB INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. THE LATEST RUC ALSO INDICATES AS MUCH AS 350J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATOP THE COLD AIR. THIS PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT
SOME IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SLEET SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CANT RULE OUT THUNDER SLEET
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL. THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE
LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC ZONE AND
POTENTIAL FOR BANDED PRECIP TO SET UP.

GIVEN THE LATEST DATA...WILL LEAVE THE WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS
IS...BUT CHANGE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SLEET AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE THE PURE
SNOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND RED RIVER COUNTIES
THROUGH MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WE COULD SEE ALL
SNOW OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN.
IN ADDITION...WILL BUMP UP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE METROPLEX TO 2 TO
3 INCHES...MAINLY SLEET ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAKE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS.

[Brandon8181]

Well least my dogs are staying up with me.

Hey buddy Im' here

bark bark? lol

[iorange55]

Well least my dogs are staying up with me.

Hey buddy Im' here

bark bark? lol

Woo! A human life form. I'm hoping to see this one from start to finish.

[MSUDawg]

iOrange I'm here too... just to the west of you i believe... another band of rain moving north right on the county line right now
Ohh did i just hear something outside go clank or is that my cat playing tricks on me..

Grr..just the cat

[HockeyTx82]

I would stay up, but I am so tired I am falling asleep sitting here at my computer. Temp went up to 33 here in Denton. Still waiting. Things still in good order? Any model runs worth mentioning?

[Ntxw]

Unbelievable. I don't think I've ever seen models fail like this leading up to a storm. Sure they had it that there would be a storm and the cold is coming, but the constant changes are amazing.

[Brandon8181]

Unbelievable. I don't think I've ever seen models fail like this leading up to a storm. Sure they had it that there would be a storm and the cold is coming, but the constant changes are amazing.

Whats up? I've been working and just got on in the last hour, haven't looked at any models at all. Whats going on?

[HockeyTx82]

Unbelievable. I don't think I've ever seen models fail like this so leading up to a storm. Sure they had it that there would be one and the cold is coming, but the constant changes are amazing.

They have the La Nada program ingested so they are not working in the real world, LOL. What are you seeing now? Good, bad, same? I really need some sleep.

[DonWrk]

I'm here also. Been some big time thunder going off. I'll know when the sleet/rain stops when I can actually hear my tv under this tin roof.

[iorange55]

06z nam still showing 4+ inches around here. Sleet or snow? Who knows.

[Ntxw]

RUC keeps changing the 'look' of the system/temps and size and HRRR keeps expanding. Clearly underdone. Abilene was progged to get maybe an inch or two by virtually all of the models. That's gone down the drain. San Angelo nothing, and they have something. NAM has failed, GFS has been trending slowly, Euro went from one extreme to the other...sigh.

[HockeyTx82]

RUC keeps changing the 'look' of the system/temps and size and HRRR keeps expanding. Clearly underdone. Abilene was progged to get maybe an inch or two by virtually all of the models. That's gone down the drain. San Angelo nothing, and they have something. NAM has failed, GFS has been trending slowly, Euro went from one extreme to the other...sigh.

So what does that make us?

[paulb]

Heavy sleet in Paradise now, just started from out of seemingly nowhere.

[iorange55]

Just by looking at the radar and the current temps...I just don't see how we'd only get an inch or two. Heaviest precip is still a little ways from here and our temps certainly aren't going to go up.

[HockeyTx82]

What? It backed up?

What is going on?

[Ntxw]

Just by looking at the radar and the current temps...I just don't see how we'd only get an inch or two. Heaviest precip is still a little ways from here and our temps certainly aren't going to go up.

Dry slot lol.