ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Ivanhater]

Good news for the panhandle at least this morning, only thing is the longer it takes to strenghthen the further west the models will go..kind of a catch 22

[caneman]

erinmia,

If you're insnuating I'm -removed-, you would be wrong. I own 2 businesses and a Hurricane would destroy my livelihood. My intent in pointing it was that Gator seems so certain that it will impact SE Florida when I believe that threat to be less than 20% for a direct hit. I simply asked that he be subjective and not just come up with facts that only supports his conclusion I do find it ironic that you point out people wanting something to come their way and how your post corrilates with your location.

[canetracker]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
Fay is not looking to healthy right now.

[Vortex]

12Z GFS rolling in..Good initialization..Very important run IMO.

[jinftl]

the flip might be true..the further west it goes, the more water it stays over, the quicker it will strengthen

Good news for the panhandle at least this morning, only thing is the longer it takes to strenghthen the further west the models will go..kind of a catch 22

[cpdaman]

erinmia,

If you're insnuating I'm -removed-, you would be wrong. I own 2 businesses and a Hurricane would destroy my livelihood. My intent in pointing it was that Gator seems so certain that it will impact SE Florida when I believe that threat to be less than 20% for a direct hit. I simply asked that he be subjective and not just come up with facts that only supports his conclusion I do find it ironic that you point out people wanting something to come their way and how your post corrilates with your location.

i think you (and others) make the mistake of assuming people want it going there way , when in fact they are really concerned, and pay attention to details that support their concern

[tailgater]

I'm thinking Fay will a bit slower developing and take a path a bit south and west of what most of the models are showing, today and tommorow. I like( agree)with the AEMI solution.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al062008.png

I was forbidden to see that link. Could you please explain why you think more west?

I just don't think it will get it's act together as quick as predicted meaning it would take longer to feel that weakness but still end up affecting SW Fla.

[marciacubed]

12Z GFS rolling in..Good initialization..Very important run IMO.

Why? What do you think will happen? I am not questioning your knowledge I just am wondering why? I am just trying to learn things.

[ericinmia]

erinmia,

If you're insnuating I'm -removed-, you would be wrong. I own 2 businesses and a Hurricane would destroy my livelihood. My intent in pointing it was that Gator seems so certain that it will impact SE Florida when I believe that threat to be less than 20% for a direct hit. I simply asked that he be subjective and not just come up with facts that only supports his conclusion I do find it ironic that you point out people wanting something to come their way and how your post corrilates with your location.

It's Eric by the way, and i'm glad you can read my insinuating sarcasm!

[Stephanie]

Looks healthy, but flat on the West side. Looks like she's heading a bit southwest in that loop.

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing for sure, since 10,000 feet mountains couldn't destroy Fay, Cuba won't do much damage to the storm either...This has the potential to be really strong.

[gatorcane]

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[/quote]

I am not certain its a SE FL hit. Nowhere I have said it will directly hit SE FL. I do think peninsula FL is the target though.

[TCmet]

it will be interesting to see what recon finds in a little bit - this will be the first true center fix since the upgrade to TS.

should help to initialize the models a bit better too - esp finer scale models like HWRF.

[caneman]

cpdaman,

I'm not saying Gator wants it to go his way. I simply asked that he try and be objective. I at least give it a 20% chance but Gator seems to be finding facts to only support a SE landfall. And I love Gator's post so it's not an attack in anyway. I simply asked for objectivity.

[deltadog03]

AFM....Hey, good buddy!! What do you think about the track we seen by the euro, and somewhat of the GFS from a day or 2 ago...A W or a WSW, short term, track that takes it very close to jamaica?? (just north of there) I think models are gonna end up being too strong in the short term with strength and therefore they are trying to tug and yank this too far east. ??

[Air Force Met]

Promets, do you see fay slowing down or accelerating from it's current speed in the next 24-36 hours? thanks for any reply's!

It may slow down some as it moves south of Cuba...but overall...it should be about the same average.

[cpdaman]

let's see , she is disorganized and has mountains currently to her SW,S,SE,E,NE,NW

appears no mountains to the N or the W but everywhere else, good luck unless you go south of SE cuba, or over EAstern fifth of cuba (1 out of 10 shot or more IMO)

[TCmet]

unusually high amount of uncertainty in NHC forecast right now - both track and intensity, due to current and upcoming land interactions.

we'll probably have to wait another 24-48hrs when Fay is over Cuba to get any sort of decent idea about FL landfall specifics.

[ericinmia]

I think the most important thing to remember this point is the excerpt from the 11am disco that stated something to the effect of east, down the center, or west makes really no difference. You will need to prepare if you are in the cone, (all in that realm east-west), and be prepared for the worst. But the likelihood for hurricane force winds under any of those tracks is very high for all involved, according to the NHC.

All the quibling over 30 miles here and there in regards to the eventual landfall is really negligible, it will only be a bullet point in history as to where it landfalled... not necissarily how you were affected. (Generally speaking a storm moving to my west would be much more impactful to me than a direct hit.)

Everyone needs to remain calm and simply do the basic preparations. Should you follow common sense there are no reasons to worry. Life will go on, aside from bad luck... were not looking at any sort of large scale catastrophe's here.
-Eric

[gatorcane]

I think the most important thing to remember this point is the excerpt from the 11am disco that stated something to the effect of east, down the center, or west makes really no difference. You will need to prepare if you are in the cone, (all in that realm east-west), and be prepared for the worst. But the likelihood for hurricane force winds under any of those tracks is very high for all involved, according to the NHC.

All the quibling over 30 miles here and there in regards to the eventual landfall is really negligible, it will only be a bullet point in history as to where it landfalled... not necissarily how you were affected. (Generally speaking a storm moving to my west would be much more impactful to me than a direct hit.)

Everyone needs to remain calm and simply do the basic preparations. Should you follow common sense there are no reasons to worry. Life will go on, aside from bad luck... were not looking at any sort of large scale catastrophe's here.
-Eric

excellent post and this is so true, anybody in the cone should take action and listen to NHC guidance for the most accurate information.