Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

What is the best radar out there for picking up on precipitation like mist/drizzle?

Local TV radar? I know that the NWS-DFW radar is picking it up too.

Thank you so I assume this freezing drizzle is probably going to be around awhile?

Yes

[bubba hotep]

12z HRRR cuts back QPF across DFW and is now more in line with the NAMS & GFS through Tuesday evening.

[gpsnowman]

Several ISD's are closed, mostly in Parker, Tarrant, and Johnson counties.

[WacoWx]

Ok City to Edmond looks like a sleet-fest right now. Holy moly

[gpsnowman]

Wife was summoned for jury duty today in downtown Dallas this morning. Wasn't cancelled and I am not happy about it.

[Iceresistance]

Ok City to Edmond looks like a sleet-fest right now. Holy moly

There is some snow mixing in too, and combine it with Lightning.

OK-74 (Lake Hefner Parkway) is very slow going right now

[HockeyTx82]

12z HRRR cuts back QPF across DFW and is now more in line with the NAMS & GFS through Tuesday evening.

So we have overblown this whole thing and the NWS was right?

Winter Cancel

[rwfromkansas]

Needless to say, while I hate being sick, I don't like lying about sick days to get off from school. So, good timing to get sick I guess. I am glad I got the sub for today rather than risk driving in myself due to my past scary accidents in ice. Keller emailed saying buses are running late and to be careful driving in already.

There's no way they don't do an early release.

Ground temps look to be in the mid-30s now. Another 12 hours and it will be at freezing, and elevated areas are already freezing per reports here. i did see the warning moved up as well.

On a side note, I was right about getting down to 25 IMBY and DFW 28. This site has definitely taught me things. A little surprised they didn't get to 27, but that's still cold enough for major impacts I think.

Now we wait for what the final run of models say. We may get this pushed off to the south a bit, but surely that just means more sleet for DFW.

[txtwister78]

12z HRRR cuts back QPF across DFW and is now more in line with the NAMS & GFS through Tuesday evening.

Good news. Really has cut back on the initial wave it had on previous runs. More in line with other guidance including NBM now. Still a dangerous situation for bridges and overpasses though across a good chunk of the 35 corridor.

[rwfromkansas]

12z HRRR cuts back QPF across DFW and is now more in line with the NAMS & GFS through Tuesday evening.

So we have overblown this whole thing and the NWS was right?

Winter Cancel

Even their NBM started bumping totals to a significant event. Even I we don't have an inch of ice, which I didn't really buy anyway, .20 to .50 is quite bad.

[bubba hotep]

12z HRRR cuts back QPF across DFW and is now more in line with the NAMS & GFS through Tuesday evening.

Good news. Really has cut back on the initial wave it had on previous runs. More in line with other guidance including NBM now. Still a dangerous situation for bridges and overpasses though across a good chunk of the 35 corridor.

Looking at soundings, the cutback might be due to how it handles the dry layer. So we could see higher QPF if things saturate quicker. Also, it is colder across DFW than the NAMs when the main precipitation moves in overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

[EnnisTx]

12z HRRR cuts back QPF across DFW and is now more in line with the NAMS & GFS through Tuesday evening.

So we have overblown this whole thing and the NWS was right?

Winter Cancel

[CaptinCrunch]

12z HRRR cuts back QPF across DFW and is now more in line with the NAMS & GFS through Tuesday evening.

So we have overblown this whole thing and the NWS was right?

Winter Cancel

Even their NBM started bumping totals to a significant event. Even I we don't have an inch of ice, which I didn't really buy anyway, .20 to .50 is quite bad.

.15" to .50" across DFW by Wednesday morning is possible. However I don't think the models have the precipitation amounts nailed down, they can go either way at this point.

[Iceresistance]

The Convective Sleet is now building over me

[WacoWx]

Convection all over central OK. It looks like that same impulse is now getting to closer to the Ablilene/WFalls corridor.

[Gotwood]

So we have overblown this whole thing and the NWS was right?

Winter Cancel

Even their NBM started bumping totals to a significant event. Even I we don't have an inch of ice, which I didn't really buy anyway, .20 to .50 is quite bad.

.15" to .50" across DFW by Wednesday morning is possible. However I don't think the models have the precipitation amounts nailed down, they can go either way at this point.

If those totals are just freezing rain I can see those totals being close but most areas are going to get hammered.

[Ntxw]

Convection all over central OK. It looks like that same impulse is now getting to closer to the Ablilene/WFalls corridor.

Moisture is surging from the south in Central Texas as well as entering from Northern Mexico. The trip home my not look like the trip out this morning.

[WacoWx]

Lets hope the heavier precip brings down some warmer temps to keep accretions down.

[Iceresistance]

Sleeting outside, 17°F

[Ntxw]

Ground temps look to be in the mid-30s now. Another 12 hours and it will be at freezing, and elevated areas are already freezing per reports here. i did see the warning moved up as well.

On a side note, I was right about getting down to 25 IMBY and DFW 28. This site has definitely taught me things. A little surprised they didn't get to 27, but that's still cold enough for major impacts I think.

DFW hit 27F this morning and is teetering between 27-28.

Like you I started tracking the soil temperature just to verify some ideas that didn't keep notice of in the past. In ~12 hours of below freezing to drop 10F from mid 40s to mid 30s. The idea from some guidance we would be below freezing for just a short period of time did not pan out.