ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kassi]

I lost my home, everything in it, and all of my vehicles in Harvey. It was a nightmare, but my family survived. If he is safe, that's the most important thing.

I lived in Houston for Harvey.

Spent 3 days and nights in my 22’ aluminum boat rescuing folks in river conditions.

My hat is off to the Cajun Navy. Those guys are relentless.

Chuck

I live 100M east of Houston and we got 67". Cajun Navy was here as well. I evacuated 0.2 miles away and they couldn't evacuate. I walked back to my house and almost died in my backyard because it turned into quicksand.

It was insane and hopefully something we never have to go through again. Everything flooded, deeply, for many miles in all directions. It's still so surreal. I pray that I will never go through anything like that again. 5 years and still recovering from being left with nothing but concrete and studs. Rebuilding from scratch is expensive and we weren't in a flood zone. As much as I am fascinated with hurricanes, I also hate them. Prayers for everyone affected in Florida.

[ThunderForce]

On the Tampa Bay Area's IR Radar, it looks like Ian has either wobbled to the east or is starting to move a bit more eastward now.

[fasterdisaster]

landfall 5-10 minutes away imo

never mind...still waiting...

[CryHavoc]

Ian finally showing a bit less of the deep red convection on IR. Even if not weakening it might indicate the strengthening phase has abated.

[Javlin]

Dropsonde showing 137 knots at the surface in the Northwestern Eyewall

Category Five

Those winds are instantaneous and often are gusts. Not necessarily indicative of sustained winds and therefore category.

From one of the Mets on the board "Another impressive NW eyewall drop. 140+kt throughout the entire boundary layer."

[chaser1]

Eye drop is pretty dry (49% at 850mb), but I’m not sure if that’s due to another EWRC trying to start, or because the eye is so close to land.

Honestly, I think that simply displays the reality of the more stable dryer air appearing at that broadly 850 mb layer. Whether that is some weird unexplained "2022 thing" or a direct result of dry air wrapping around and being drawn into Ian circulation from it's west, I cannot say. We've all been hearing about the predicted "Ginormous" rainfall totals as predicted by the various models (GFS seemingly the most "over-the-top"). There seems to be a significant dry slot east to northeast of center that would ordinarily favor a greater concentration of feeder bands. We'll see as Ian traverses Florida whether forecasted raindall totals actually verify. I am tending to think that the vast majority of overall population will likely experience 50% (or less?) of anticipated rainfall for their respected areas though.

All in all though, I'm very curious to see what wind, surge, and rainfall forecasts ultimately verify - relative to the very broad distanced audience that these forecasts and warnings sre intended for and actually impact.

[tolakram]

I'd say landfall soon, Captiva perhaps.

[fasterdisaster]

looks like landfall happening right now

[Ed_2001]

We are all rightfully fixated on the situation in FL, but a HU watch has just quietly gone up for part of the GA/SC coast. Ian’s second landfall could still possess minimal hurricane intensity.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1575195841350057984

[Ed_2001]

Icyclone has not updated since an hour ago, when he was right outside of the eyewall in Punta Gorda. Likely/hopefully just lost signal.

[Texas Snowman]

I'd say landfall soon, Captiva perhaps.

https://i.imgur.com/ehyTV33.gif

Blind Pass is the bridge between Captiva and Sanibel. Looks pretty close to me ….

[skillz305]

Looks NE to me

[CryHavoc]

Icyclone has not updated since an hour ago, when he was right outside of the eyewall in Punta Gorda. Likely/hopefully just lost signal.

I shot him a text about 20 minutes ago, didn't hear back yet. Hopefully he's safe.

[Grumpy]

Eye drop is pretty dry (49% at 850mb), but I’m not sure if that’s due to another EWRC trying to start, or because the eye is so close to land.

Honestly, I think that simply displays the reality of the more stable dryer air appearing at that broadly 850 mb layer. Whether that is some weird unexplained "2022 thing" or a direct result of dry air wrapping around and being drawn into Ian circulation from it's west, I cannot say. We've all been hearing about the predicted "Ginormous" rainfall totals as predicted by the various models (GFS seemingly the most "over-the-top"). There seems to be a significant dry slot east to northeast of center that would ordinarily favor a greater concentration of feeder bands. We'll see as Ian traverses Florida whether forecasted raindall totals actually verify. I am tending to think that the vast majority of overall population will likely experience 50% (or less?) of anticipated rainfall for their respected areas though.

All in all though, I'm very curious to see what wind, surge, and rainfall forecasts ultimately verify - relative to the very broad distanced audience that these forecasts and warnings sre intended for and actually impact.

I don't know, not a forecaster. I've never seen this much rain, this fast and I'm a Florida native. I pumped 1,500 gallons out of my pool yesterday. It filled back up overnight. I pumped another 2,000 gallons out this morning and it's filling up quickly.

[Texas Snowman]

Port Charlotte…

 https://twitter.com/alexasantawx/status/1575192704388333568

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/steveseman/status/1575194991705538560

[tolakram]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 281901
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ONGOING...

A Weatherflow station at Tarpin point in Cape Coral reported
sustained winds of 77 mph (124 km/h) with a gust up to 118 mph (190
km/h). A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish
Pass, Florida, recently reported a pressure of 942 mb (27.81
inches).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 82.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Beven/Papin

[Blown Away]

Ian drifting E of the track.

[CronkPSU]

 https://twitter.com/richschellhase/status/1575197771606331392