ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ktulu909]

How can we trust ANY model if we cant keep track of the center???I am thinking that the models trend west the more that this thing shifts SW.This thing could end up in S.America if it keeps this up

[KWT]

Yep hiflyer seems like most data does support a circulation relocating down to the SW, avoiding the mountions as well through the central part of the island.

[HurricaneRobert]

Any reason to think it would shift West as opposed to staying nearly constant or shifting East towards P'cola?

Why didn't the NHC mention Texas in their discussion, but they did say that the Panhandle and the entire LA coast was in danger?

[dwg71]

I think NHC is reluctant to jump on the GFDL train, because its the outlier, but I think they feel most confident in it. I thought it too strange that he stopped short of TExas and mentioned panhandle.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well Im about 95%sure that where going to see a repeat of last night's convective blow-up, and we will likely see hurricane status by morning tomorrow, assuming this really is offshore. I can see deep convection developing in scattered areas in gustav's extremities, that are likely already beginning to push toward the storm. Btw, was Gus developing an eye just as it made landfall? I think I saw it just before it went inland earlier.

[LAwxrgal]

Well, isn't the saying, if you're in the middle of the five day cone, the storm's probably not going to hit you?

[Agua]

Well, isn't the saying, if you're in the middle of the five day cone, the storm's probably not going to hit you?

I think it's "[t]he safest place to be is the end of a five day forecasts track", or something like that.

[smw1981]

I think NHC is reluctant to jump on the GFDL train, because its the outlier, but I think they feel most confident in it. I thought it too strange that he stopped short of TExas and mentioned panhandle.

I think NHC is reluctant to jump on the GFDL train, because its the outlier, but I think they feel most confident in it. I thought it too strange that he stopped short of TExas and mentioned panhandle.

I think this is because the GFDL has been trending more EAST, not WEST, and although it is the outlier, they are definitely considering this scenario. (I'm not sure what it has done this afternoon, I just checked back in without looking! Sorry if it has swung back to the left now lol.)

Also, I just got back (last week) from working in Kingston. I was there when Fay went north of us, and Kingston (on the south coast) got more rain than Ocho Rios...which flooded (for a short time) the house I was staying at on the campus of the University of the West Indies. I worked in Spanish town (about an hour or so west of Kingston) and I cannot tell you how much I feel for the people there right now. There are some really, really poor rural communities in the mountains (Caymanas Glade for one) with the nicest people I have ever met, and the dirt road leading to them flooded during a 15 minute afternoon thunderstorm one day. Please keep these people in your prayers!

[Agua]

Any reason to think it would shift West as opposed to staying nearly constant or shifting East towards P'cola?

Why didn't the NHC mention Texas in their discussion, but they did say that the Panhandle and the entire LA coast was in danger?

I'm assuming that the TX coast was outside the scope of their statement concerning, and I paraphrase "the chances of tropical storm winds are the same from the FL Panhandle as throughout the LA Coast". That would indicate to me that the chances of tropical storm winds occuring in places outside of those areas are different. I dunno, but that's just how I would read it. :shrug:

[dwg71]

Well, isn't the saying, if you're in the middle of the five day cone, the storm's probably not going to hit you?

I think it's "[t]he safest place to be is the end of a five day forecasts track", or something like that.

Problem is 4 days out its just south of NOLA. They get more and more accurate as they get closer to the 3 day cone. Link somebody posted earlier from Houston Chronicle showed that since 2005 they 4 day cone was pretty darn good and improving.

I would rather be in Houston right now, than NOLA (in terms of NHC and model paths)

[KWT]

Of course the thing is the synoptic evolution is pretty well honed in now, the system tracks round the western side of the high steadily bwnding in a gentle WNW motion before making landfall somewhere in the gulf.

Anyway I'm pretty confident that we have some sort of center relocation (well maybe not relocation per say) to the south-west of where it was before, but we won't know till we get the next recon mission fly through.

[jaxfladude]

Is NOAA flying their Gulfstream Jet to sample the upper atmosphere for Gustav and/or Hanna?

[Brent]

Is NOAA flying their Gulfstream Jet to sample the upper atmosphere for Gustav and/or Hanna?

Saturday for Gustav. No flights at all for Hanna yet(because it's not a threat anytime soon)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

This confirms my thinking of the center back over water south of Jamaica.

[Stratosphere747]

This is why Texas wasn't included in the statement about hurricane force winds and why nobody should read anything into it -



Our coastline is still outside of the 120hr mark.

[LSU2001]

Is it me or is the overall size of Gus expanding. I don't expect to see much strengthening yet but it appears to me that the overall size of the storm has increased and the banding and outflow channels have certainly improved.
Tim

[KWT]

Yep I think that settles it Matt, you can clearly see the inner core is over water just to the south of Kingston, wonder whether it continues to skirt around the southern side of the island?!

[weatherguru18]

Is it me or is the overall size of Gus expanding. I don't expect to see much strengthening yet but it appears to me that the overall size of the storm has increased and the banding and outflow channels have certainly improved.
Tim

I was just about to say the same thing...

[dwg71]

looks to be still on land heading about due west, convective feature south is deceptive because of its movement. We will see.

[Brent]

Is it me or is the overall size of Gus expanding. I don't expect to see much strengthening yet but it appears to me that the overall size of the storm has increased and the banding and outflow channels have certainly improved.
Tim

I've been noticing that all day. It's like a completely different storm than last night.