ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

The 5am track shifted east over Grand Bahama Island a little.

not sure why you think it went east


Most of the
dynamical models shows a track near the east coast of Florida
and the southeast United States from days 3 through 5. The NHC
track is largely unchanged through 48 hours, but has been adjusted
slightly westward after that time, and is close to the consensus
of the ECMWF and GFS. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact
forecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous
storm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew.

Actually, last night it was 109 miles from my house in Miami according to http://www.stormcarib.com/closest.cgi Today it's 119 miles. Not much, and I would WAY rather see it @ 319 miles, but every little bit helps!!

you are correct..every mile helps or hurts as it did yesterday

[KBBOCA]

Potentially a catastrophic scenario unfolding for Haiti this morning. Looks like a 130 knot Cat 4 moving into the western tip of Haiti.

Oh that eastern jog is breaking my heart this morning. I just can't imagine the devastation that's taking place in Haiti. Praying for miracles and safe places for many to shelter. This is just awful.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pretty scary how similar Matthew is starting to look like Hurricane Hazel in 1954 in terms of track.

[tgenius]

Seeing that east jog my heart breaks for the poor people from Haiti. It does appear that it may in fact help SFL and possibly keep the worst weather and/or landfall off shore. My only concern is that east path would somewhat avoid the core from passing over the mountains of Cuba.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah my heart really aches for yet another natural disaster impacting Haiti right now. I just pray for all down there and soon The Bahamas going into tomorrow. Just absolutely as bad conditions as you can imagine.

[La Sirena]

they want one more run of the gfs...there is a huge difference in terms of tropical vs hurricane in terms of evacs for keys and into miami...i suspect tropical storm watches/warnings upper keys all they to at least deerfield beach..they are cutting it close but they hoist hurricane watches/warnings the monetary expense skyrockets..lets see how the handle it

I told my husband last night that they would have to evacuate the Keys today if that was going to happen. And the mandatory checkpoint at MM 106 just to leave with your pets will slow this wayyyyy down. Governor Scott and EMA have a tough call to make quick.

Do you have any official information concerning evacuations and checkpoints? I see no reason to evacuate the keys nor have heard of any plans. With information coming in from all corners I urge people to provide official sources or we will have to remove posts to prevent false rumors from spreading.

I didn't say they were evacuating....I said if they did it would have to happen today. It's understandable if you need to delete my post.

Here's the checkpoint info in the article released yesterday regarding pet checkpoints : http://www.flkeysnews.com/news/local/article105665836.html

[GCANE]

Dreaded Pink Donut right at landfall - not good.

[LCfromFL]

Here is this morning's official briefing from NWS Jacksonville (FL). The next one will be issued at 12:15 pm ET today - I'll post it when it's available.

http://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

[pgoss11]

From the NWS in Charleston SC

The latest NHC forecast for Matthew indicates a Category 2
hurricane, possibly a Category 3 storm, impacting the area Friday
night into Saturday. Of course, there is still some uncertainty in
the track/strength of Matthew and thus pinpointing exact impacts is
impossible at this time. However, folks across southeast SC/GA
should prepare for hurricane force sustained winds /74+ mph/,
coastal flooding, heavy rainfall-induced freshwater flooding and
isolated tornadoes, especially near the coast. There is also the
potential for the center of Matthew to cross the coast and this
would increase the coastal flooding due to a potentially significant
storm surge, mainly to the north and east of the landfall
location.

[skufful]

Any further shifts west and poor little Beaufort, SC is gonna get a lot of wind. Looks like no baseball this weekend.

[syfr]

What effect on intensity occurs when a storm travels this close to land for extended periods of time (as Matthew looks to do along Fla and the SE coast).

[GCANE]

I would imagine this station is out.
Port Salut - closest to the eye.

https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fi ... =IPORTSAL2

[BobHarlem]

I hate the one to invoke the hurricane term "drinking game" but other than the eastern tail, Matthew sure has the look of a hurricane attempting to turn annular.

[hurricaneCW]

These jogs further east may have spared Florida from a direct hit but unfortunately it was at the expense of Haiti, this is as bad as you can imagine for them.

[gulf701]

It is sad that we depend on the "Government" to tell us to begin preparing. Unless it is just totally economical beyond one's means, and there can be a high number that needs a higher level of assistance, we all should make some effort for providing for our families during hurricane season. When it come to evacuations, the economic impacts can be devastating to families and local communities. The NHC has to take this into consideration when issuing watches and warnings in addition to life safety requirements. If local emergency management agencies are performing their responsibilities, they should already be planning what coastal areas will need evacuation and those that should shelter in place to manage the health and safety of the population. Having been part of the EM system, I do not envy their task or responsibilities to inform but not panic their respective communities, especially with the large population of coastal South Florida.

[GCANE]

Looks like the eye just hit the coast.
I wonder if the mountains will deflect some of the higher altitude winds down to the surface.

[ObsessedMiami]

These jogs further east may have spared Florida from a direct hit but unfortunately it was at the expense of Haiti, this is as bad as you can imagine for them.

Florida hasn't been spared anything yet.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/pastorjackp/status/783257459045588993

[Hypercane_Kyle]

These jogs further east may have spared Florida from a direct hit but unfortunately it was at the expense of Haiti, this is as bad as you can imagine for them.

Florida hasn't been spared anything yet.

Agreed. Absolutely pointless to be looking at short-term jogs east-to-west as hurricanes of Matthew's intensity don't follow a straight line and often bounce around.

[LCfromFL]

Florida Residents - do you know if you are in a Hurricane Evacuation Zone? They were updated a few years ago and now have color codes and letters (I am in a Zone C in Nassau County). If you scroll down to the map on this page, you can enter your address and the map will show you if your home is in an evacuation zone.

http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/

If you scroll a bit more, you can find your county map with evacuation zones and routes, surge maps. I've pasted the urls to a few counties in NE FL (there are additional links for other counties if you click that link above - then scroll down):

Nassau County: http://www.nefrc.org/pdfs/SRESP%20web%20version/VOLUME%20SEVEN%20(ATLASES)/BOOK%20FOUR%20NASSAU%20COUNTY.pdf

Duval County: http://www.nefrc.org/pdfs/SRESP%20web%20version/VOLUME%20SEVEN%20(ATLASES)/BOOK%20TWO%20DUVAL%20COUNTY.pdf

St Johns County: http://www.nefrc.org/pdfs/SRESP%20web%20version/VOLUME%20SEVEN%20(ATLASES)/BOOK%20SIX%20ST%20JOHNS%20COUNTY.pdf