ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL aims on Cuba and is more west.

WHXX04 KWBC 041729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.0 56.4 290./14.9
6 23.4 57.7 288./12.9
12 23.6 58.9 279./10.9
18 23.6 60.1 270./10.8
24 23.5 61.5 267./12.5
30 23.2 62.8 256./13.2
36 22.8 64.2 252./13.2
42 22.4 65.5 255./12.8
48 22.0 67.0 253./14.1
54 21.6 68.5 256./14.3
60 21.2 69.6 249./11.1
66 20.8 70.7 251./11.0
72 20.7 71.8 266./10.1
78 20.6 72.8 266./ 9.6
84 20.6 73.8 267./ 9.3
90 20.6 74.8 272./ 9.4
96 20.7 75.8 274./ 9.1
102 20.9 76.6 285./ 8.3
108 21.3 77.3 299./ 7.1
114 21.8 77.9 307./ 7.8
120 22.3 78.6 308./ 8.4
126 23.0 79.2 315./ 8.8

[Evil Jeremy]

Just got back from lunch and 150 miles is close, but the emphasis of my statement was on the "TOO". At 150 miles away, Florida may or may not get TS force winds.

the gist was in response to "this GFS run is bad news for Fl", if this were to happen actually how this run predicts (which it wont), this would in fact be GOOD news for Florida.

This run is bad news because each GFS run keeps on heading more west than the previous one.

[gatorcane]

12z GFDL aims on Cuba and is more west.

WHXX04 KWBC 041729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.0 56.4 290./14.9
6 23.4 57.7 288./12.9
12 23.6 58.9 279./10.9
18 23.6 60.1 270./10.8
24 23.5 61.5 267./12.5
30 23.2 62.8 256./13.2
36 22.8 64.2 252./13.2
42 22.4 65.5 255./12.8
48 22.0 67.0 253./14.1
54 21.6 68.5 256./14.3
60 21.2 69.6 249./11.1
66 20.8 70.7 251./11.0
72 20.7 71.8 266./10.1
78 20.6 72.8 266./ 9.6
84 20.6 73.8 267./ 9.3
90 20.6 74.8 272./ 9.4
96 20.7 75.8 274./ 9.1
102 20.9 76.6 285./ 8.3
108 21.3 77.3 299./ 7.1
114 21.8 77.9 307./ 7.8
120 22.3 78.6 308./ 8.4
126 23.0 79.2 315./ 8.8

note the NW turn that would take it right into South Florida from the last forecast point position.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET is more west just east of Miami:


HURRICANE IKE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 56.6W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 04.09.2008 23.4N 56.6W MODERATE

00UTC 05.09.2008 23.8N 58.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2008 24.1N 61.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2008 24.7N 63.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.09.2008 25.3N 65.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2008 25.3N 68.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2008 25.3N 71.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.09.2008 25.3N 73.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2008 25.7N 75.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2008 25.9N 77.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2008 26.1N 78.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2008 26.0N 79.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2008 26.4N 79.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z UKMET is more west just east of Miami:


HURRICANE IKE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 56.6W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 04.09.2008 23.4N 56.6W MODERATE

00UTC 05.09.2008 23.8N 58.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2008 24.1N 61.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2008 24.7N 63.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.09.2008 25.3N 65.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2008 25.3N 68.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2008 25.3N 71.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.09.2008 25.3N 73.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2008 25.7N 75.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2008 25.9N 77.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2008 26.1N 78.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2008 26.0N 79.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2008 26.4N 79.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

Ohh my...not what the Dr ordered..

[gatorcane]

considering that we have 3 big models bringing Ike through Southern FL now with less of a recurve east of Florida

it must be noted:

UKMET, ECMWF, and GFDL.

[Canelaw99]

Not appreciating that trend this afternoon, that's for sure....gonna be a LONG weekend here LOL

[KWT]

Are we seeing a trend right now...the trend is a bad one unless the GFDL is correct which in that case a much weaker Ike would be aiming at Florida.

UKMO isn't buying the WSW motion but it does bend back west and stays that way...close enough atr the end of the run for a hurricane warning...expect the NHC to shift back west...

[Bocadude85]

Are we seeing a trend right now...the trend is a bad one unless the GFDL is correct which in that case a much weaker Ike would be aiming at Florida.

UKMO isn't buying the WSW motion but it does bend back west and stays that way...close enough atr the end of the run for a hurricane warning...expect the NHC to shift back west...

lol if you go by the UKMET then the eyewall would be onshore in Palm Beach County... thats more then close enough for a hurricane warning though IM sure these models will change again.

[Brent]

[Weatherboy1]

actually UKMET end point is right around eastern Palm Beach County, farther north than Miami. In fact, right around where I live. peachy.

[jlauderdal]

12z UKMET is more west just east of Miami:


HURRICANE IKE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 56.6W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 04.09.2008 23.4N 56.6W MODERATE

00UTC 05.09.2008 23.8N 58.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2008 24.1N 61.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2008 24.7N 63.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.09.2008 25.3N 65.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2008 25.3N 68.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2008 25.3N 71.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.09.2008 25.3N 73.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2008 25.7N 75.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2008 25.9N 77.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2008 26.1N 78.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2008 26.0N 79.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2008 26.4N 79.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

yikes if that verifies, jlauderdal will be wishing he and the family lived elsewhere, good news is i would be on the clean side

[KWT]

Even the clear side on Ike would be dangerous, I'm guessing if the UKMO is right we'd be looking at a cat-3/4 which would be really powerful...

[Weatherboy1]

the important thing -- rather than the precise forecast point at day 5 -- is the trend. And here, the eastern outliers (UKMET, GFS) have shifted very far to the W and S. That is troubling IF -- IF -- it persists through at least one or two more global model cycles.

[jhpigott]

Are we seeing a trend right now...the trend is a bad one unless the GFDL is correct which in that case a much weaker Ike would be aiming at Florida.

UKMO isn't buying the WSW motion but it does bend back west and stays that way...close enough atr the end of the run for a hurricane warning...expect the NHC to shift back west...

I could be wrong, but I think the only reason the GDFL is showing a weaker hurricane is land interaction with Haiti/Cuba . . .

[KWT]

Thats exactly the reason, either way a weaker hurricane is better then the UKMO set-up which would scream cat-4 landfall to me sadly.

[Una]

12Z HWRF ends 908mb just off miami.

[Derek Ortt]

however, the GFDL solution would give the storm plenty of time to ramp up over the Florida straits

that is the worst case track, as that could split the Peninsula, hammering everyone from the Keys to the metro areas

[Canelaw99]

12Z HWRF ends 908mb just off miami.

does NOT look good for those of us down here in Dade/Southern Dade....good thing we're 5ish days out, but still....

[shah8]

I just saw that...

/me shivers...