Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[srainhoutx]

Dodge City has an interesting take on the longer range. I smell that pattern change...

I DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THERE
IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. I WANT TO SEE A FEW MORE RUNS WITH CONSISTENCY BEFORE
I MAKE CHANGES. THE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THAT THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF
THE 00Z ECMWF SWINGS THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER INLAND THAN COMPARED
WITH THE 00Z GFS WHICH MAINTAINS THE TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF THE QUICKER SOLUTION SO I AM GOING TO TREAT THE
00Z ECMWF MODEL RUN AS AN OUTLIER. THE NCEP AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. THIS COULD SPELL OUT BIG
FORECAST CHANGES TOWARDS CHRISTMAS AND AFTERWARD. IF THE 00Z ECMWF
WERE TO VERIFY, WE COULD FINALLY GET SOME INTERESTING WEATHER. IF
THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY, WE WOULD CONTINUE THIS HIGH AND DRY PATTERN
THAT WE HAVE SEEN ALL SEASON LONG.

[Texas Snowman]

Was looking at the OKC NWS winter temperature facts page.

Saw this:

•Most ≤32 Degree High Temperatures in a Calendar Year : 32 (1978)

Wowza.... That's an entire month's worth of freezing or sub-freezing high temps...in Oklahoma City!?!

That was some winter. I was in middle school in Memphis, Tenn. and I remember it was a pretty impressive winter there too.

[Portastorm]

It appears the pattern change that our friend srainhoutx has been raising our awareness of is still in the works. The 0z GFS paints a somehwat wet scenario for the after-Christmas period. We've been seeing this the last few days now and my confidence is increasing that we'll have at least a better chance of some wet stuff. At this point I don't care if it's frozen or not (although that's always a bonus! ) ... we need precipitation!

[srainhoutx]

You are correct Portastorm. Several things to watch in the Christmas Eve to New Years time frame. The storm track is shifting and that is a change. There appears to be a chance of severe weather to our NE with the Christmas Eve front. The front on the 28th is suggested by virtually all the global operational guidance (GFS, Euro, Canadian, & UKMET) to be a powerful Southern Plains storm. While the track will shift and certainly is not set in stone at this range, the fact that all medium range guidance is 'sniffing' out the storm brings some hope that it will be there in some form or fashion and end this run of a boring weather pattern.

[Dencolo]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/e ... ought.html

Drought conditions expected to persist or intensify for a lot of the plains. Pretty good explanation to go along with the map in the article. La Nina can be a real downer!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests the Christmas Eve front is still on schedule and a robust storm takes shape across the Southern Plains and heads E. There are some positive signals of a pattern change as well. The Pacific appears to be heading toward a more favorable period and we are seeing signs of an MJO pulse that could invigorate the STJ. Also of note is the rising PNA depicted in the guidance as well. The Pacific flow of storms appears to reamain very active and hopefully the more active period will produce some better chances of moisture for TX/OK...

PNA heading toward a netural/slightly positive regime after being negative since mid November...



AO is expected to stay negative after dropping to a record negative range today (-5.17)...

[wx247]

00z GFS suddenly went really cold in the long range. Hmm... wonder if it is a trend or a blip?

[srainhoutx]

HPC Morning update does offer some more details concerning the Christmas Eve Storm potential...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
900 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 26 2010

THE FORECAST SPREAD/SOLUTION ENVELOPE REMAINS SMALLER THAN NORMAL
AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE QUITE WELL WITH DEVELOPMENT AND
EVOLUTION OF AN AMPLIFIED AND STEADILY PROGRESSIVE MID-LATITUDE
FLOW PATTERN FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE LOWER 48 OVER THE
COMING HOLIDAY WEEK. THIS STORMY PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY
THE INLAND SURGE OF DYNAMIC/COOLING/DESTABILILZING SHORT RANGE ERN
PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY ALOFT OUT FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/ROCKIES THU OVER/THROUGH A MID-UPPER LEVEL MEAN RIDGE
POSITION BEFORE DIGGING/AMPLIFYING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND
INTO AN ERN SEABOARD BY CHRISTMAS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF WINTER PCPN ACROSS THE NATION
AND LEADING TO WELL ORGANIZED HOLIDAY WEEKEND EAST COAST WINTER
STORM CYCLOGENESIS. UPSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN
PACIFIC BY THEN BECOMES MORE OF A MESS HOWEVER WITH INCREASING
SOLUTION SPREAD...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES RAPIDLY WITH
TIME THERE AND INLAND INTO THE WRN US EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF
GUIDANCE DOES ALLOW ANOTHER POTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO REACH
THE WEST COAST CHRISTMAS WEEKEND WITH A RENEWED THREAT FOR MORE
HEAVY PCPN/UNSETTLED WEATHER SLAMMING INLAND.

OVERALL...WHILE GUIDANCE DOES OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES AN OVERALL
SOLUTION CLOSE TO THAT SIMILARILY PROVIDED BY RECENT GFS/ECMWF AND
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEMS REASONABLE AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENT. THE MANUALLY ADJUSTED UPDATED HPC PRELIM GUIDANCE
PACKAGE MAINTAINED CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS
FROM OUR EARLIER ISSUANCE. HEAVY SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUS IS OFTEN
MORE FICKLE AS PER IMPORTANT SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES AND
INTERACTIONS THAT STILL FALL WITHIN NOISE LEVELS AT MEDIUM RANGE
TIME SCALES...BUT THE FLOW REGIME CERTAINTY SUPPORTS A BUSY/STORMY
HOLIDAY PERIOD.

[Texas Snowman]

Hmmmm....but I thought winter 2010-2011 was already over!

[Portastorm]

Hmmmm....but I thought winter 2010-2011 was already over!

Now, now ... I think I said I was "close" to posting the proverbial "winter=cancel" thread. I never did it!

Let's all think positive thoughts and maybe, maybe ... we can get this horrid pattern to change.

By the way, another see the 0z GFS this morning?

[Ntxw]

Wow, wouldn't it be somethingfunny ( ) to have the same scenario play out as last year lol. A potent storm about a week out tracking almost the same way from California/Nevada, depicted as a Kansas snowstorm then progressively trends further south until you have a full out blizzard in Oklahoma/NW Texas at the same time period gotta be a joke.

If we can get the next storm to dig a little south

Here's to refresh some memories!

[iorange55]

That storm didn't bring Dallas a lot of accumulation but it was the closest thing I have seen to a blizzard here. It was white out for awhile.

[Ntxw]

That storm didn't bring Dallas a lot of accumulation but it was the closest thing I have seen to a blizzard here. It was white out for awhile.

And enough for a white Christmas! That's all I ask for, even if it doesn't snow again this winter...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWGjyh_peBs

Amazing video out of Bridgeport NW of Ft Worth that day. Had the band kept together for another 50 miles Dallas probably could've seen the same thing

[TwisterFanatic]

Ah, yes the 2009 Christmas eve blizzard. First ever Blizzard warning for Tulsa.

[Ntxw]

Here is thecritter that is supposed to make headlines over the Christmas weekend. Where it enters/tracks and how deep it is will determine if Texas/Oklahoma receives much needed rain (perhaps something more). It's finally showing up in the medium range which should keep us busy the next couple of days! Keep your fingers crossed! If only we had a +PNA, it would dig a much sharper trough sigh. The big storm off the NW coast worries me, could correct itself to be yet another flat trough.

Hour 78 after entering the SoCal coast.


Edit: 0z GFS is north with perhaps thunderstorms for TX/OK ahead of the front. Beyond that the Pacific still looks disgusting and stagnant.

[Ntxw]

And now the discrepancies begins. 0z Euro swings the low from southeast New Mexico through North Texas to Lousiana (Deja Vu anyone?) while the GFS had it in Oklahoma/Kansas region through the Tennessee Valley. Canadian once again somewhere in between the two. How much this storm digs will have lots of implications for us, as well as the east coast. The more the better.

[TwisterFanatic]

And now the discrepancies begins. 0z Euro swings the low from southeast New Mexico through North Texas to Lousiana (Deja Vu anyone?) while the GFS had it in Oklahoma/Kansas region through the Tennessee Valley. Canadian once again somewhere in between the two. How much this storm digs will have lots of implications for us, as well as the east coast. The more the better.

Might wanna keep the popcorn on standby.

[wx247]

I'm popping some right now. The Euro solution is interesting... we shall see if it is still looking similar 24 hours from now.

[Ntxw]

One thing to note, the EC tonight is also much slower than the GFS. What was an east coast Christmas snowfall is now a southern plains day event IF that were to verify before bombing the following Monday off New England coast. So not only is location a problem, but timing seems to be different as well...

[TwisterFanatic]

I know the DGEX is not super reliable, but it shows this nonetheless.



Further south than the GFS also.

EDIT: After looking, actually almost all models have trended southward with the GFS being the exception.