Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[TexWx]

[quote="underthwx"]https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_50.gif



what is this?



Alicia?

[Portastorm]

The models are actually all over the place & have no clue. Haven't seen it like this for a GOM disturbance in a while. Weird set up all away around.

And I haven't seen them this clueless this close in either. I presume some of it is because there is not LLC to latch on to. It also indicates that the steering currents are expected to be very weak for a while. This will be very interesting to watch.

I concur and I don't think we should be surprised. There are so many variables at play. Will the trough over the Central US sharpen enough to really bring the cold front through Texas and near the Gulf Coast? We haven't seen a cold front in about four months. How many times have you Gulf Coasters seen the first late summer front move that far? I'm skeptical myself. But I also know that if the front does indeed go that far south, if there is some kind of warm-core system even close, it's likely to be pulled north and then east. If the trough misses it ... high pressure builds and it gets shunted south and west.

Then we have the actual system itself which obviously will be a slow developer, if at all. And where would cyclogenesis occur in the Gulf? Timing, etc. All issues.

There are an awful lot of unanswered questions right now about this deal.

[caneman]

The models are actually all over the place & have no clue. Haven't seen it like this for a GOM disturbance in a while. Weird set up all away around.

And I haven't seen them this clueless this close in either. I presume some of it is because there is not LLC to latch on to. It also indicates that the steering currents are expected to be very weak for a while. This will be very interesting to watch.

I concur and I don't think we should be surprised. There are so many variables at play. Will the trough over the Central US sharpen enough to really bring the cold front through Texas and near the Gulf Coast? We haven't seen a cold front in about four months. How many times have you Gulf Coasters seen the first late summer front move that far? I'm skeptical myself. But I also know that if the front does indeed go that far south, if there is some kind of warm-core system even close, it's likely to be pulled north and then east. If the trough misses it ... high pressure builds and it gets shunted south and west.

Then we have the actual system itself which obviously will be a slow developer, if at all. And where would cyclogenesis occur in the Gulf? Timing, etc. All issues.

There are an awful lot of unanswered questions right now about this deal.

I couldn't agree more.... Waiting game and could make for an interesting Labor Day weekend. Elena all over perhaps......

[underthwx]

im confused about the sfwmd models site...if you click on storm 50..it displays the gulf...is this an error on the page?...what is that?...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Tireman4]

Friday is the day to start really watching ( according to Wxman 57 and Jeff)...that is when I will really watch..

[southerngale]

im confused about the sfwmd models site...if you click on storm 50..it displays the gulf...is this an error on the page?...

This disturbance isn't on there (yet).

[southerngale]

12z NAM @ 72 hours







And here's a shot of the 6z GFS @ 72 hours

[djmikey]

12z NAM @ 72 hours

http://i55.tinypic.com/m9r5ae.gif





And here's a shot of the 6z GFS @ 72 hours

http://i55.tinypic.com/6sgih2.gif

Southerngale...can you describe the pics...some of us can't see these pics while at work. Thanks

[jhpigott]

long range radars out of both Tampa and Key West show a consolidated area of showers and thunderstorms just off the SW coast of FL. Don't see much in the way of turning though atm.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[crazy4disney]

Southerngale...can you describe the pics...some of us can't see these pics while at work. Thanks

Thanks, I was just going to ask that too. I can't see images here at work either.

-gina-

[southerngale]

12z NAM @ 72 hours

http://i55.tinypic.com/m9r5ae.gif





And here's a shot of the 6z GFS @ 72 hours

http://i55.tinypic.com/6sgih2.gif

Southerngale...can you describe the pics...some of us can't see these pics while at work. Thanks

The image just shows the NAM @ 72 hours, sitting on top of SE TX. 996mb.

I'll add to it a little... At hour 84, it moves a little SW. That's where the run ends, but that would appear to be similar to the Euro in riding down the Texas coast, but it's not usually wise to extrapolate.


The image of the 6z GFS at 72 hours shows an 1006mb system off the SE LA coast. It goes on to continue eastward and go inland in the Panhandle of Florida around 120 hours. I didn't look beyond that.

[Aric Dunn]

long range radars out of both Tampa and Key West show a consolidated area of showers and thunderstorms just off the SW coast of FL. Don't see much in the way of turning though atm.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Well there is a weak turning just north of the Yucatan Channel seeing some ene flow on the west side and obviously the strong southerly flow on the east side.. a bouy just NW of Keys a couple hundred miles has a east wind so weak low level turning farther south and is the area to watch

[djmikey]

I know it's too early to tell and I know this thing could go anywhere from TX to FL right now, BUT...just fro fun, what are your "hunches" as to where it will go? Many scenarios out now, but what is your "hunch"? Just curious!

[Nikki]

I know it's too early to tell and I know this thing could go anywhere from TX to FL right now, BUT...just fro fun, what are your "hunches" as to where it will go? Many scenarios out now, but what is your "hunch"? Just curious!

I will go out on a limb here and say inland!

[Aric Dunn]

I know it's too early to tell and I know this thing could go anywhere from TX to FL right now, BUT...just fro fun, what are your "hunches" as to where it will go? Many scenarios out now, but what is your "hunch"? Just curious!

im actually leaning towards a blend of the 00z NAM 00z cmc and 00z gfs.

[Nikki]

I know it's too early to tell and I know this thing could go anywhere from TX to FL right now, BUT...just fro fun, what are your "hunches" as to where it will go? Many scenarios out now, but what is your "hunch"? Just curious!

im actually leaning towards a blend of the 00z NAM 00z cmc and 00z gfs.

Can you explain what that means, you know for weather dummies like me

[djmikey]

I know it's too early to tell and I know this thing could go anywhere from TX to FL right now, BUT...just fro fun, what are your "hunches" as to where it will go? Many scenarios out now, but what is your "hunch"? Just curious!

I will go out on a limb here and say inland!

Nice...rnmm! lol

[underthwx]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... h_full.png


Climate Prediction Center Graphic....





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

I know it's too early to tell and I know this thing could go anywhere from TX to FL right now, BUT...just fro fun, what are your "hunches" as to where it will go? Many scenarios out now, but what is your "hunch"? Just curious!

im actually leaning towards a blend of the 00z NAM 00z cmc and 00z gfs.

Can you explain what that means, you know for weather dummies like me

Just the average track of those models. for instance the GFS heads the area NW to just south of LA where it develops it. the NAM is a little farther west.. and the CMC a little farther west than that.. so basically right up the middle..

[Nikki]

I know it's too early to tell and I know this thing could go anywhere from TX to FL right now, BUT...just fro fun, what are your "hunches" as to where it will go? Many scenarios out now, but what is your "hunch"? Just curious!

I will go out on a limb here and say inland!

Nice...rnmm! lol

Thanks! I just thought we all could use a laugh this morning!!