ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Also, although it is still being sheared, Julia still has a respectable tight circualtion and the spiral bands are still not terribly removed from the center. Still producing gusts to 45kts in those squalls east of Savannah.

[JaxGator]

It looked good last night despite the shear. The center was under the convection but now it's the opposite as clearly seen on visible (just a bit). Still a lot of rain to come for those in the path. 2000+ now without power in Georgia.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
200 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

...JULIA JUST OFFSHORE NEAR GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 80.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 80.8 West. Julia is
moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a slow and
erratic motion is expected over the next couple of days. Julia is
likely to meander near the northern Georgia or southern South
Carolina coastlines through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km),
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible along
portions of the coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina today.
Fort Pulaski, Georgia, near Savannah, reported a wind gust to 45 mph
(72 km/h).

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches along the immediate coastline of South Carolina
from Georgetown southward, and 2 to 4 inches near Savannah, Georgia.
Isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches are possible along the
immediate coast of South Carolina. Julia is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches elsewhere along the coast
from far northeast Florida to far southern North Carolina. This
rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially in Georgia and
South Carolina.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across southern South
Carolina today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Fishing]

It's been alternating steady to somewhat heavy rain here in Mount Pleasant, SC (Charleston county).
No winds to speak of. My rain gauge is almost full. Started early early this morning 3am (ish). Had a lull from about 7 to 11 and then it's been constant.

[northjaxpro]

You can still see the shear effects on Julia as the center of circulation is becoming exposed as convection is removed east of the COC currently. The visible imagery really shows the COC really good, which iis right at the mouth of the Savannah River currently. also, a very wierd configuaration with thant elonagted look from NE to SW n visible imagery.

Also, the N/NE movement is already slowing to a crawl . Lots of rain potential for the SC Low Country, provided if Julia stays and meanders closer to the coast.

It looked good last night despite the shear. The center was under the convection but now it's the opposite as clearly seen on visible (just a bit). Still a lot of rain to come for those in the path. 2000+ now without power in Georgia.

I know what they are enduring currently.God bless those without power. I did not have mine after midnight last night when Julia blasted my locale. Finally, the power was back on after 6 a.m. this morning. Lousy feeling indeed. Thankfully Julia was not a stronger tropical cyclone, but it was bad enough to knock my power out, which never occured during Beryl's landfall here in 2012 and even the other storms to affect us this year.

[JaxGator]

You can still see the shear effects on Julia as the center of circulation is becoming exposed as convection is removed east of the COC currently. The visible imagery really shows the COC really good, which iis right at the mouth of the Savannah River currently. also, a very wierd configuaration with thant elonagted look from NE to SW n visible imagery.

Also, the N/NE movement is already slowing to a crawl . Lots of rain potential for the SC Low Country, provided if Julia stays and meanders closer to the coast.

It looked good last night despite the shear. The center was under the convection but now it's the opposite as clearly seen on visible (just a bit). Still a lot of rain to come for those in the path. 2000+ now without power in Georgia.

I know what they are enduring currently.God bless those without power. I did not have mine after midnight last night when Julia blasted my locale. Finally, the power was back on after 6 a.m. this morning. Lousy feeling indeed. Thankfully Julia was not a stronger tropical cyclone, but it was bad enough to knock my power out, which never occured during Beryl's landfall here in 2012 and even the other storms to affect us this year.

For sure indeed. Praying for them. Yeah, that is weird how that didn't happen before but I did see a few blue lights light up the sky during Beryl but somehow, didn't lose power. Check out this cool footage taken yesterday of Julia's onslaught.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ho7902NYX7Y&sns=fb

[LarryWx]

Julia continues to me well east of earlier model/NHC projections and it is already up to the latitude of SAV moving NNE or NE. She wasn't projected to even reach this latitude til this evening. I wonder if this means she will just stay offshore whether she ends up slowing down to a crawl or not.

[Aric Dunn]

just got a chance to look at it today since yesterday.

that went the wrong direction as forecast.. not its completely offshore interesting..

[NDG]

It looked good last night despite the shear. The center was under the convection but now it's the opposite as clearly seen on visible (just a bit). Still a lot of rain to come for those in the path. 2000+ now without power in Georgia.

I know what they are enduring currently.God bless those without power. I did not have mine after midnight last night when Julia blasted my locale. Finally, the power was back on after 6 a.m. this morning. Lousy feeling indeed. Thankfully Julia was not a stronger tropical cyclone, but it was bad enough to knock my power out, which never occured during Beryl's landfall here in 2012 and even the other storms to affect us this year.

For sure indeed. Praying for them. Yeah, that is weird how that didn't happen before but I did see a few blue lights light up the sky during Beryl but somehow, didn't lose power. Check out this cool footage taken yesterday of Julia's onslaught.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ho7902NYX7Y&sns=fb

Wow, those winds looked like 60 mph gusts to me at times.

[wxman57]

Good chance it'll be hanging around the SC coast through at least Sunday morning, though it should be winding down by the weekend. Lots of rain possible for coastal counties.

[LarryWx]

I just looked at the 12Z model initializations/runs:

Julia has already reached the 12Z Euro/GFS/CMC/JMA/NAVGEM 24 hour position (8 AM EDT tomorrow) of just E of SAV 18 hours early! So, I'd take the non-CMC idea of her hanging along the coast of the SE US with a huge grain. I wouldn't be surprised if she stayed offshore and kept going NE as opposed to coming back to or near the SE coast. The model consensus appears clueless as regards current steady NE movement. Actually, the CMC has her moving NE pretty steadily. It wouldn't surprise me if the 12Z CMC ends up verifying most closely, ironically enough.

[tolakram]

live 30 frame visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

[LarryWx]

live 30 frame visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

This loop clearly shows her steady NE movement. The non-CMC models, including the mighty Euro, are not catching this steady NE movement at all.

[Fishing]

live 30 frame visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

This loop clearly shows her steady NE movement. The non-CMC models, including the mighty Euro, are not catching this steady NE movement at all.

Sure hope you're right. I love the rain but not 3 or 4 days of it. Last October was quite enough!

[wxman57]

I don't see it racing out to sea. It's blocked by a large area of high pressure. It'll move NE for a bit then stall, make a clockwise loop, then likely head back to near Charleston by Sunday.

[Fishing]

I don't see it racing out to sea. It's blocked by a large area of high pressure. It'll move NE for a bit then stall, make a clockwise loop, then likely head back to near Charleston by Sunday.

Well lovely. Guess I'll get used to it. Can't fight nature .

[hurricanedude]

So is the center on land or over water now?

[wxman57]

I don't see it racing out to sea. It's blocked by a large area of high pressure. It'll move NE for a bit then stall, make a clockwise loop, then likely head back to near Charleston by Sunday.

Well lovely. Guess I'll get used to it. Can't fight nature .

Think of it as "Hermine II", but with more rainfall along the coast than Hermine. So much for my Hermine comp day Friday...

[ronjon]

I don't see it racing out to sea. It's blocked by a large area of high pressure. It'll move NE for a bit then stall, make a clockwise loop, then likely head back to near Charleston by Sunday.

LOL - the storm that has a mind of its own and refuses to listen to models!

[wxman57]

So is the center on land or over water now?

It's offshore. "X" marks the spot. Still have yet to see any reported sustained wind of tropical storm strength. If Julia has any, then those winds cover only a tiny area. It's more likely a depression now but the NHC won't likely downgrade a system near shore that could strengthen at any time. Not a bad strategy.