Texas Spring 2022

[HockeyTx82]

Spring Equinox is today at 10:33AM CST.

Hope everyone stays safe tomorrow with the expected forecast.

[ElectricStorm]

HRRR has a lot of cloud cover/morning convection tomorrow. If that verifies, it could put a dent in tornado potential. If any areas start clearing by afternoon though then it wouldn't matter as much.

[Iceresistance]

This may not be Texas Related, but this is extremely concerning


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/OH-MY.gif

[Ntxw]

Second to the storms, Weds/Thursday looks chilly. Deep cutoff trof and wouldn't surprise me if snow flakes fly NW of DFW.

Still think north of I-20 rain the morning will damper some threats with decent but not great DP return. South and East higher risks but depends on how quickly it goes linear (meridional flow favors).

[txtwister78]

FWIW looks like Reed Timmer is setting up tomorrow in SC TX near the Austin metro. I've been highlighting this particular region between SA and AUS points east where I think instability will be maxed as a result of some peak afternoon heating and more than enough shear to develop storms (some tornadic) sometime between 2-4 PM. Still some question where exactly the storms fire but nonetheless parameters continue to be in place for an outbreak of severe weather tomorrow afternoon across portions of SC and Central TX points east.

[Iceresistance]

FWIW looks like Reed Timmer is setting up tomorrow in SC TX near the Austin metro. I've been highlighting this particular region between SA and AUS points east where I think instability will be maxed as a result of some peak afternoon heating and more than enough shear to develop storms (some tornadic) sometime between 2-4 PM. Still some question where exactly the storms fire but nonetheless parameters continue to be in place for an outbreak of severe weather tomorrow afternoon across portions of SC and Central TX points east.

Also note that something strange is going on with the NAM, it's been trending north with the STP & Supercell Composite, I've found this uncontaminated sounding west of DFW

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/2022032012_NAM_042_33.04-97.00_severe_ml.png

[txtwister78]

FWIW looks like Reed Timmer is setting up tomorrow in SC TX near the Austin metro. I've been highlighting this particular region between SA and AUS points east where I think instability will be maxed as a result of some peak afternoon heating and more than enough shear to develop storms (some tornadic) sometime between 2-4 PM. Still some question where exactly the storms fire but nonetheless parameters continue to be in place for an outbreak of severe weather tomorrow afternoon across portions of SC and Central TX points east.

Also note that something strange is going on with the NAM, it's been trending north with the STP & Supercell Composite, I've found this uncontaminated sounding west of DFW
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/2022032012_NAM_042_33.04-97.00_severe_ml.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/2022032012_NAM_042_33.04-97.00_severe_ml.png

I don't discount it entirely, but modes are going to be messy up in that region and with ongoing precip in the morning, I still think odds are higher further south where heating is maximized and directional shear is more favorable.

[cheezyWXguy]

FWIW looks like Reed Timmer is setting up tomorrow in SC TX near the Austin metro. I've been highlighting this particular region between SA and AUS points east where I think instability will be maxed as a result of some peak afternoon heating and more than enough shear to develop storms (some tornadic) sometime between 2-4 PM. Still some question where exactly the storms fire but nonetheless parameters continue to be in place for an outbreak of severe weather tomorrow afternoon across portions of SC and Central TX points east.

Also note that something strange is going on with the NAM, it's been trending north with the STP & Supercell Composite, I've found this uncontaminated sounding west of DFW
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/2022032012_NAM_042_33.04-97.00_severe_ml.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/2022032012_NAM_042_33.04-97.00_severe_ml.png

I don't discount it entirely, but modes are going to be messy up in that region and with ongoing precip in the morning, I still think odds are higher further south where heating is maximized and directional shear is more favorable.

Agreed but given the model depictions I think the SPC might be underdoing the northward extent of the tornado potential. The NAM run Ice took the sounding from is not the first run I’ve seen suggest it.

[ElectricStorm]

Still enhanced which is probably the right call with all the uncertainty and morning convection. However, parts of OK are now under a marginal risk.

[Iceresistance]

Also note that something strange is going on with the NAM, it's been trending north with the STP & Supercell Composite, I've found this uncontaminated sounding west of DFW
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/2022032012_NAM_042_33.04-97.00_severe_ml.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/2022032012_NAM_042_33.04-97.00_severe_ml.png

I don't discount it entirely, but modes are going to be messy up in that region and with ongoing precip in the morning, I still think odds are higher further south where heating is maximized and directional shear is more favorable.

Agreed but given the model depictions I think the SPC might be underdoing the northward extent of the tornado potential. The NAM run Ice took the sounding from is not the first run I’ve seen suggest it.

The SPC may have taken note of that since DFW is now under a Slight Risk

[txtwister78]

SPC continues to shift severe risk further south & west with time. They now have the significant tornado threat pushed further SW closer to SA with the region from just east of downtown SA to Waco points east under the highest threat tomorrow for strong tornadoes. The significant hail threat now encompasses most of SC TX including both the AUS & SA metros reaching as far north as Waco. Definitely agree with those trends based on models and parameters.

[wxman22]

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging
wind gusts, and several tornadoes are expected across portions of
central and eastern Texas, beginning Monday afternoon and lasting
through much of the night. A couple of strong tornadoes are
possible.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough over the West will move eastward into the
central/southern Great Plains region on Monday. As this occurs, a
surface low is forecast to move eastward from eastern NM toward
portions of the OK/TX Red River vicinity by Monday evening. A warm
front initially running from central TX into the northwest Gulf of
Mexico will move northward through the day in response to the
surface low.

...Central/eastern TX and vicinity...
An active severe thunderstorm event is possible across parts of
central and eastern TX, with a risk for all severe hazards,
including the potential for very large hail and a couple strong
tornadoes.

Initially elevated convection will likely blossom across parts of
north TX and southern OK later Monday morning into early afternoon,
within a strengthening warm-advection regime north of the warm
front. Uncertainties remain regarding the extent to which this
convection will impede the northward movement of the warm front
through the day. However, with an increasing low-level jet (50+ kt
at 850 mb), strong low-level moisture transport will continue, and
some convection may become rooted near/at the surface within a
strongly sheared environment. Any supercells or bowing structures
that can be maintained in this warm-advection regime will pose at
least an isolated threat for all severe hazards by early-mid
afternoon.

Meanwhile, further south into central TX, widely scattered
thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline by late
afternoon. Moderate instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and ample
deep-layer shear will support supercells, with an initial threat of
potentially very large hail. As these storms mature and move into an
environment of increasing low-level shear, a few tornadoes will be
possible, with a conditional strong-tornado threat with any
supercells that are sustained into the evening.

An increasingly linear convective mode is expected to evolve with
time by Monday night across eastern TX into southern AR and western
LA. While the expected line-parallel flow is not ideal for a
widespread damaging wind threat, at least scattered damaging gusts
are possible given the strength of the low/midlevel flow. Strong
low-level shear will also support a tornado threat with any
mesovortices or embedded supercells.

[Ntxw]

There's going to be some severe weather even to the north. More scattered in nature and I think even an area near the triple point where warm front will create a boundary.

Where is of greatest concern is C and SE Texas, jet entrance in the afternoon/evening changes in orientation from south to north into southwest to northeast. Ideal jet entrance for a major outbreak historically favors zonal west to east tilting slightly negative. The closer you get to that the better storm modes will be for supercells.

[Iceresistance]

The STP has rapidly increased for Northern Texas & most of Oklahoma on the 15z SREF compared to 9z

DFW is now up to 45% STP on the 15z SREF compared to 5-15%

OKC is now up 30% STP on 15z to compared to up to 15% on 9z

This could be a setup where even being North of the Warm Front can have tornadoes.

[Bhow]

Appears Reed Timmer is favoring the Austin area tomorrow.

[Cpv17]

The end of the 12z Euro looks quite interesting.

[Tireman4]

There's going to be some severe weather even to the north. More scattered in nature and I think even an area near the triple point where warm front will create a boundary.

Where is of greatest concern is C and SE Texas, jet entrance in the afternoon/evening changes in orientation from south to north into southwest to northeast. Ideal jet entrance for a major outbreak historically favors zonal west to east tilting slightly negative. The closer you get to that the better storm modes will be for supercells.

This could be a bumpy ride for us in the Houston Metro area Monday into Tuesday. I wonder if a PDS will be issued tomorrow. We shall see.

[Iceresistance]

This is the largest 90% STP Contour I've ever seen!


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/GOODNESS.gif

[captainbarbossa19]

The end of the 12z Euro looks quite interesting.

I saw that. Interestingly, this would go against the Euro's prior forecast of drier than normal conditions for our area in that time-frame. I think that this spring is going to have a lot of surprises in it and not of the dry kind.

[ElectricStorm]

For the Day 1 outlook I think it's a tossup again. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 15 hatched moderate at some point, but a lot of times they'll wait until later in the day to see how the morning convection/cloud cover effects the setup. Will be a very dangerous day though either way.