ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Squawking again

[Blown Away]

Looks like Miss Piggy having its usual Comm issues

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/9MCCMKpY/goes16-vis-swir-10-L-202308270917.gif [/url]

GCANE, do you think the broad COC is consolidating a bit SE from the 06z position?

Definitely, maybe a little more than just a bit

When you zoom out, TD10 at 20.1N/86.8W looks suspect IMO.

[Dean4Storms]

Concerned about the Ridge to the east of this that is expected to build and drive #10 northward being more stout than modeling is indicating and this takes a more NNW run for a bit. If it does so then more populated areas from P"Cola, Destin to Panama City come into play.
How many times have we seen models under estimate a sub-tropical building ridge and tracks all get adjusted westward?????

[Nimbus]

didnt expect to see tampa out of the cone already. interesting

The way stronger storms jog east on the last day is not good news for Tampa. (Charley, Irma, Ian)

My generator hasn't had a workout for the last 6 years since Irma so I cleaned it up and test ran it yesterday to make sure the governor would kick for the ac compressor. I had drained the gas before storage so the motor ran fine but its a brushless Chinese light duty unit. The damn thing quit making electricity after five minutes. Capacitor came down with Chinese mumps at some point. Probably dried out over the years or overheated when I blew the breakers trying to microwave some popcorn. Pretty funny, cost me $10 instead of three because I didn't wait three weeks for a slow boat from China.

Ten is where Recon tasking thought it would be this morning maybe a little south.
Run consensus this run wavered back west a smidge and is stronger.
I've got plywood shutters this year cut and painted but doesn't look like we will need them in the Tampa bay area yet.

[cycloneye]

Zoom to the center.

[NDG]

TD 10 did a nice cyclonic loop during the night, tracked right over Cozumel. I wouldn’t be surprised if recon finds pressure well down below 1000mb.

https://i.imgur.com/DuJ969S.gifv

[N2FSU]

Concerned about the Ridge to the east of this that is expected to build and drive #10 northward being more stout than modeling is indicating and this takes a more NNW run for a bit. If it does so then more populated areas from P"Cola, Destin to Panama City come into play.
How many times have we seen models under estimate a sub-tropical building ridge and tracks all get adjusted westward?????

That’s my concern here in Tallahassee as well. With all of our trees, even a strong Tropical Storm is a nightmare for us. Much less a major.

[gulf701]

This is Tallahassee NWS latest discussion for TD10:

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Sensible weather Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday will hinge
on the eventual evolution and track of TD 10 (forecast to become
Idalia).

Before that, the upper ridge parked across the southern half of
the US will weaken with the upper high retrograding back towards
the four corners. Ridging over the northeast will dig slightly
southward allowing a weakness in the ridge to develop. A frontal
boundary will sag into the southeast and stall awaiting and
allowing TD 10 to start its trek towards the northern Gulf coast.
Convection Monday appears to be focused along the frontal boundary
into central and southern Alabama and along the seabreeze further
east.

Tuesday, the forecast track of TD 10 has it gradually moving
northward towards the east-central Gulf while strengthening after
meandering around the Yucatan Channel Monday. The intensity
forecast has it becoming a hurricane Tuesday as well. The rip
current risk increases markedly beginning Tuesday as well as
increasing wave heights, period, and swells. This system will likely
make landfall somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and west-
central Florida around late Tuesday night or Wednesday. In
advance of the core of this storm, tropical storm force winds are
most likely to begin on Tuesday night over our Florida counties,
so preparations should be complete by sunset on Tuesday.

Given the inherent challenges of intensity forecasting, it is
usually good advice to prepare for one category higher than what
is being forecast. In other words, folks over our Florida counties
should begin preparing as if you are going to get a Cat 2
hurricane.

Storm surge could be a concern but will ultimately depend on the
track and intensity of TD 10. Due to its unique shape and bathymetry,
the shores of Apalachee Bay are one of the most surge-prone areas
in the U.S. A center landfall around Apalachicola would put the
bay in the surge-prone right side of the storm. However, it
landfall ends up being further south, say somewhere south of the
Suwannee River, then surge would be much much less of a concern.
Keep informed on this forecast and follow the orders of local
officials in case an evacuation of surge-prone areas is eventually
ordered.

[NDG]

Focus within the cone of uncertainty not the black line in the middle of it, being 3 days out the track can be any where inside the cone. Prepare just in case.

[SFLcane]

I mentioned the possibility of this happening yesterday.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1695692765235904576

[cycloneye]

Moving slowly SE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 86.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[HurricaneBelle]

Focus within the cone of uncertainty not the black line in the middle of it, being 3 days out the track can be any where inside the cone. Prepare just in case.

Focus anywhere in the Eastern Gulf as the cone is just a representation of track error, not of potential impacts.

[Teban54]

Focus within the cone of uncertainty not the black line in the middle of it, being 3 days out the track can be any where inside the cone. Prepare just in case.

Focus anywhere in the Eastern Gulf as the cone is just a representation of track error, not of potential impacts.

And it's historical track error, i.e. verification error of NHC forecasts for storms in the past, and not specific to each individual storm. TD10 likely has higher than average uncertainty due to its current meandering in the NW Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

Moving slowly SE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 86.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

Wow, NHC 4am had the 20.1N/86.8W, the 7am is near full degree ESE of 4am position. Gotta think E adjustments down the road are coming.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/zachcoveytv/status/1695772341408559403

[cycloneye]

Good explanation here about the steering.

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1695773020374073484

[SFLcane]

From @ZachCovey on Twitter.

HAFS did a great job showing this yesterday, just was a bit further north than the convection is right now. If that does in fact tug east as I suspect it will, I suspect we'll see a good shift in not only model guidance but cone forecasting throughout the next 18-36 hours.

[SFLcane]

Interesting thread surely

 https://twitter.com/zachcoveytv/status/1695775766867312981

[hipshot]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/9MCCMKpY/goes16-vis-swir-10-L-202308270917.gif [/url]

GCANE, do you think the broad COC is consolidating a bit SE from the 06z position?

Definitely, maybe a little more than just a bit

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/rwhtkGNm/goes16-ir-gom.gif [/url]

When you zoom out, TD10 at 20.1N/86.8W looks suspect IMO.

What is that convection coming off the mid east coast of Mexico?

[GCANE]

ASCAT and IR Satellites have it off the east coast of Cozumel.
I expect that is where recon will first look.