ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

It would be kind of shocking seeing this get stronger then Jova is about to get. Of course, this has a huge advantage as Lee will have recon. So maybe this can become a cat5 based on this as it passes north of the islands.

[SconnieCane]

Now Bubba wuz a shrimpin' man. Bubba wuz from Bayou La Batre, Alabama and his mama cooked shrimp, and her mama before her cooked shrimp, and her mama before her mama cooked shrimp, too.

[cycloneye]

The big swells and coastal flooding will be the biggest problem as Lee moves north of the islands.

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Saturday and
could bring impacts to the northern Leeward Islands this weekend.
While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of
these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the
progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast.

2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

[cycloneye]

The waters that Lee will move thru are boiling until it gets to the cold wake that Franklin and Idalia left.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1699368019657453611

[Sciencerocks]

The waters that Lee will move thru are boiling until it gets to the cold wake that Franklin and Idalia left.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1699368019657453611

I think it is possible a large part of this is climate change. Of course we have colder years but it would be interesting to see a graph of the increase of heat build up in the Atlantic basin and another for surface temperatures in c or f since temperature collection.

[zzzh]

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/uMnyMkJ.png

I have been difficulty finding which site has this. Would it be okay to put out the link?

[Hurricaneman]

96L might have long term implications for Lee as if it’s to the east Lee might be a problem for eastern New England and Atlantic Canada but if 96L it further west it will cause a weakness in the ridge and may even miss Atlantic Canada. So here’s hoping that 96L comes more west and is stronger so Lee won’t bother anyone

[Sciencerocks]

This ir imagine doesn't scream a lot of strengthening to me but the microwave above does show an eye so I believe it is probably a low end hurricane of 65-70 knots.

[cheezyWXguy]

96L might have long term implications for Lee as if it’s to the east Lee might be a problem for eastern New England and Atlantic Canada but if 96L it further west it will cause a weakness in the ridge and may even miss Atlantic Canada. So here’s hoping that 96L comes more west and is stronger so Lee won’t bother anyone

Agreed, this is the scenario with best chance for a fish. The stronger and farther west 96L gets, the better. It also helps that the northern lobe of the east coast trough swings through in tandem with Lee, kicking it out northeast. Need a lot more run to run consistency though because the strength and track variation for 96L is huge over the last couple of runs, and the trough evolution isn’t much better.

[mitchell]

The 18z GFS has that more classic recurve arc. and keeps it hundreds of miles SE of New England and well off Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. I have this feeling the eastward trend may stop now and the next several model runs will kind of fluctuate around the basic track that the 12 and 18 runs hint at. It may come back west a bit on a few runs, but I'd be surprised if a CONUS landfall is back in play.

[Dsci4]

If hurricanes aren't expected to hit Florida, most people seem to lose interest in them.

For better or worse Florida jits carry the traffic on this site. I wouldn't say they're out of the woods yet

As one of those Florida men I won’t feel good until it turns. I’ve seen it too many times where the turn gets delayed and the track keeps shifting left. Hopefully that’s not the case here. I’m not sure what I would do with something like this.

I’m in St Augustine… definitely keeping tabs on this one regardless

[Teban54]

Looks like rotating hot towers are showing up on IR.

[Iceresistance]

Looks like rotating hot towers are showing up on IR.

I've noticed that too.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgG7U.gif

[Sciencerocks]

If I were to make an intensity forecast I'd go-Based on hurricane and global models of the structure of the cyclone. The main thrust of the models outside of the new one as in hafs and hmon the models show below the nhc intensities with the examples being ivcn, hwrf and of course the globals.
0 65 knts
6 70 knts (Reality: 70knts)
12 75 knts ~985(70 knts)
24 85 knts -979(115 knts) ounch!
36 100 knts ~974(135 knts) oh --- ounch!
48 110 knts ewrc ~954(130 knts)
72 120 knts Lower ~942(100 knts)
96 125 knts-ewrc and with it the structure becomes very broad with a massive wind field after this point. Probably 932 mbs(105knts)
120 110 knts -938(100 knts)
144 105 knts ~945...Globals weaken it as it is in the western Atlantic but make it very large in scope.


() reality

[Deshaunrob17]

Why do hurricanes stall near the Bahamas? Dorian, Joaquin

[cheezyWXguy]

It doesn’t look all that impressive now, but the movement of the cloud tops in the eastern half of the cdo, paired with that earlier mw satellite image, suggests Lee is making a good deal of progress toward getting ready to go. I doubt it will be quite as dramatic as Jova’s transformation today was, but I think there’s a good chance we won’t have to wait til tomorrow night for Lee’s RI phase to commence

[eastcoastFL]

Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2023 Time : 231020 UTC
Lat : 15:05:19 N Lon : 46:46:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 981.4mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 3.9 3.9

Center Temp : -69.8C Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

[eastcoastFL]

Why do hurricanes stall near the Bahamas? Dorian, Joaquin

I think in those situations the Bahamas was the edge of the ridge and they missed the trough that was supposed to pull them off to the north so they just have to wait for the next one.

[IcyTundra]

If I were to make an intensity forecast I'd go-Based on hurricane and global models of the structure of the cyclone. The main thrust of the models outside of the new one as in hafs and hmon the models show below the nhc intensities with the examples being ivcn, hwrf and of course the globals.
0 65 knts
6 70 knts
12 75 knts ~985
24 85 knts -979
36 100 knts ~974
48 110 knts ewrc ~954
72 120 knts Lower ~942
96 125 knts-ewrc and with it the structure becomes very broad with a massive wind field after this point. Probably 932 mbs
120 110 knts -938
144 105 knts ~945...Globals weaken it as it is in the western Atlantic but make it very large in scope.

Will probably be a bit stronger than that at its peak. Hard to predict ewrc's but there will be multiple.