ATL: LEE - Models

[Teban54]

Pretty huge shift there lol

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1699562532397363291

There is a reason its called the gfs happy hour, give it a cycle or two and reality will return.

The tweet shows 8 runs, only 2 of which are 18z runs. Even if you take them out, the general trend is still SW.

[cheezyWXguy]

Pretty huge shift there lol

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1699562532397363291

There is a reason its called the gfs happy hour, give it a cycle or two and reality will return.

The reason that term came about was because years ago the 18z used to get fed the least amount of new data of all four runs in a given day, resulting in reduced accuracy relative to the other runs. However, this hasn’t really been a thing in the last 10 years or so

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Yeah...

Cut-off low to the west moving SE, ridge building over... this is not a "fish" scenario.

https://i.imgur.com/zWDOK6V.png

Those of us who live in Bermuda know that there are very few true fish in the North Atlantic.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think the westward shift is due to the fact that run to run the trough cut off over the SE has been trending further west. Three runs ago it had it extended to the coast. Now it is much further west

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 2397363291

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1699562532397363291

Wasn't this already posted earlier?

[ColdMiser123]

Pretty huge shift there lol

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1699562532397363291

There is a reason its called the gfs happy hour, give it a cycle or two and reality will return.

The reason that term came about was because years ago the 18z used to get fed the least amount of new data of all four runs in a given day, resulting in reduced accuracy relative to the other runs. However, this hasn’t really been a thing in the last 10 years or so

Yep, when you look at the 10-year historical accuracy of the 4 GFS runs for a week out, there is almost no difference among runs.

[LarryWx]

1)
Last 6 EPS runs (0Z and 12Z only): # of members with CONUS H landfall

12Z 9/6: 3 (6%) (ME 9/15 & 9/17, MA 9/18)
0Z 9/6: 5 (10%)
12Z 9/5: 2 (4%)
0Z 9/5: 4 (8%)
12Z 9/4: 1 (2%)
0Z 9/4: 2 (4%)

So, the latest run dropped from 10% to 6%. The chance remains low.

2) 18Z Euro 72 is ~75 miles NE of the 12Z at 78

[Blown Away]

GFS is the king of modeling fujiwhara hurricanes.

[Dsci4]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/sgVZdP5C/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-384.gif [/url]

GFS is the king of modeling fujiwhara hurricanes.

Fujiwhara special but all I can look at is a 984mb storm sitting just north of the islands under a high pressure ridge

[jlauderdal]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/sgVZdP5C/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-384.gif [/url]

GFS is the king of modeling fujiwhara hurricanes.

Fujiwhara special but all I can look at is a 984mb storm sitting just north of the islands under a high pressure ridge

But its run to run accuracy has improved

[Ianswfl]

18z GFS ensembles another SW shift.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Here's a better look at the 12z Euro from earlier with the 500mb at the end of its run. Really interested to see what the 0z shows later tonight. It's also funny that the euro was showing it moving northeast and out a few days ago and now the end of its run is showing it moving northwest towards the coast. And yet some people will still say this storm is a done deal and isn't effecting anyone. This is going to be a long week lol

 https://twitter.com/WeatherNut27/status/1699377900527493139

[IsabelaWeather]

To add credit to the model trends today, the NHC discussion at 11pm EDT nudged their track west from day 3 on.

This is getting interesting here, if the ridge build in a bit more PR could get into some of the rain bands which would be exciting as long as the core stays off shore.

[ThunderForce]

These shifts in the model ensembles today are concerning to say the least.

[Tekken_Guy]

How is NJ looking?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/sgVZdP5C/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-384.gif [/url]

GFS is the king of modeling fujiwhara hurricanes.

I love this run. Hopefully, it will keep trending further SE with time and miss all coastal locations then head OTS.

[SouthFLTropics]

For what it’s worth, 00z ICON is slower and further south than the 18z.


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[SouthFLTropics]

ICON brings this north of Puerto Rico and slows it down to a crawl… barely moving.


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[IcyTundra]

How is NJ looking?

Too early to say but people in NJ need to keep an eye on Lee for sure. Hopefully by the end of the weekend we will have a better idea of what Lee will do.