ATL: MILTON - Models

[gatorcane]

That GFS run through a whole wrench into models trending south of Tampa. If I were in the Tampa area or points north, that is not a run you want to see. Let’s see where the hurricane models end up.

[eastcoastFL]

12z UKMet holds firm with a Ft Meyers to Treasure Coast exit.

I'm glad that's an outlier right now. It's going to be a stressful couple of days. I'm gonna have to try and work and keep an eye on the storm/models tomorrow.

Nothing is an outlier lol it’s well within the nhc cone.

Much of the state is in the cone right now. It's an outlier as far as global models go this run.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I wouldn't consider any model an 'outlier' at this point if it's in the cone. Ft Myers being hit is a genuine possibility. Same with Cedar Key. Usually a 'meet-in-the-middle' scenario is the best result, which is almost always where you find the center of the NHC cone.

HAFS-A back on the crazy superstorm idea in 48 hours. Not sure how likely that is, really seems overcooked.

[Steve]

HMON 929 at 57 hours
A 919 at 48
B 905 66 hours

[Steve]

I wouldn't consider any model an 'outlier' at this point if it's in the cone. Ft Myers being hit is a genuine possibility. Same with Cedar Key. Usually a 'meet-in-the-middle' scenario is the best result, which is almost always where you find the center of the NHC cone.

HAFS-A back on the crazy superstorm idea in 48 hours. Not sure how likely that is, really seems overcooked.

You’re right but he’s saying among the models it is which is also correct so far.

[mantis83]

That GFS run through a whole wrench into models trending south of Tampa. If I were in the Tampa area or points north, that is not a run you want to see. Let’s see where the hurricane models end up.

agreed! tampa still needs to watch out!

[SconnieCane]

12Z HWRF has a borderline major hurricane in 12-18 hours.

I'm not sure I even want to see the HAFS duo.

[Steve]

12Z HWRF has a borderline major hurricane in 12-18 hours.

I'm not sure I even want to see the HAFS duo.

Haha. The B is down to 901 72 hours is of course wrong. A at 915 at 54 so it has time to get it down to the 800’s.

[tolakram]

I have no evidence to say this is wrong, all I can say is I don't believe it until it happens.

[tolakram]

Remember that time Ike wasn't supposed to hit Cuba?

[BobHarlem]

12z HAFS-B is slightly slower and a little to the left of the 6z so far. (Corrected from faster)

[toad strangler]

What’s lurking in the back of my mind is 57’s belief that systems like this in the Gulf more times than not will slide east more than projected with a jet streak present. None of us know which of these models is looking at that more accurately. We will soon find out! Up Next, euro.

[Steve]

What’s lurking in the back of my mind is 57’s belief that systems like this in the Gulf more times than not will slide east more than projected with a jet streak present. None of us know which of these models is looking at that more accurately. We will soon find out! Up Next, euro.

Right. But the eastern Canadian trough is also lifting out a little at the end. So it could also hook NE. Tough call but somewhere in the middle of the peninsula is probably right.

[CronkPSU]

What’s lurking in the back of my mind is 57’s belief that systems like this in the Gulf more times than not will slide east more than projected with a jet streak present. None of us know which of these models is looking at that more accurately. We will soon find out! Up Next, euro.

It is basically going to be going east already…almost every other storm approaching is coming in northward

[Steve]

B at 939 NW weighted and heading toward Pinellas Co or a bit farther north at 84 hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=84

[Steve]

Landfall in the Bay pressure 950’s and coming up.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=93

[BobHarlem]

12z HAFS-B landfall treasure island. Exits into the Atlantic just north of Cape Canaveral.

[Steve]

HMON 970’s Pinellas Co. weighted north.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=90

[BobHarlem]

12z hmon landfall Clearwater Beach. (Shift right/south from Homosassa at 6z), exits into the Atlantic near Palm Coast.

[Steve]

Hafs A is showing a bunch of supercells in the band ahead making it look like a real tornado threat.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=81