(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a special weather statement from the Lake Charles NWS and it includes Beaumont. If they are expecting ice over there (where less of the cold air will be)...then I am sure we would get it here too:

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
428 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-181800-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
428 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES
REGION OF EASTERN TEXAS.

ARCTIC AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY. THE CORE OF
COLDEST AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
REGION WILL SEE ONLY A GLANCING SHOT OF THIS COLD AIRMASS...WHICH
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW.

WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIFTED ATOP THIS SHALLOW COLD LAYER...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO SPILL INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

AS A RESULT...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP
IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND LIKELY LIMITED TO
ELEVATED SURFACES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

[CajunMama]

YIPPEE! That includes Lafayette parish too! I'm going to have to bundle up tonight to go watch the mardi gras parade...and bring a thermos of hot toddies! Cold and wet weather will mean less people along the parade route...more beads for me to catch!

[jasons2k]

Here is a special weather statement from the Lake Charles NWS and it includes Beaumont. If they are expecting ice over there (where less of the cold air will be)...then I am sure we would get it here too:

Not exactly, even the statement itself says the core of the cold is pushing into the TN valley, which is well EAST of here.

I don't think the ice will get any closer than Huntsville, maybe, *maybe* Conroe, and I HOPE it stays thay way. The trees down here are all blooming out; ice would be a very BAD thing, not to mention all the accidents it would cause.

[PTPatrick]

This cold seems to have been very hard on the forecasters...early this week the cold was supposed to shoot straight down into texas. Areas of Louisiana and Mississippi werent supposed to be in on the cold stuff. the MObile NWS was calling for a low in the 40's tonight 5 days ago, now they say low 30's. its nuts

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a special weather statement from the Lake Charles NWS and it includes Beaumont. If they are expecting ice over there (where less of the cold air will be)...then I am sure we would get it here too:

Not exactly, even the statement itself says the core of the cold is pushing into the TN valley, which is well EAST of here.

I don't think the ice will get any closer than Huntsville, maybe, *maybe* Conroe, and I HOPE it stays thay way. The trees down here are all blooming out; ice would be a very BAD thing, not to mention all the accidents it would cause.

I am not so sure though...both the ETA and the GFS show ice reaching north Houston tonight/tomorrow morning. Also..the ETA shows us staying below 34F all tomorrow (and even down to 28F tomorrow afternoon). I just do not see why all the models would be in so much agreement. Also..with temps. of 40-42F right now..it will only take a 8-10F temp. drop to get us to the freezing mark...which is very possible. I think for now we should just wait and see what happens today and this evening before deciding whether or not Houston has a chance at wintry weather.

[Furious George]

Here is a special weather statement from the Lake Charles NWS and it includes Beaumont. If they are expecting ice over there (where less of the cold air will be)...then I am sure we would get it here too:

Not exactly, even the statement itself says the core of the cold is pushing into the TN valley, which is well EAST of here.

I don't think the ice will get any closer than Huntsville, maybe, *maybe* Conroe, and I HOPE it stays thay way. The trees down here are all blooming out; ice would be a very BAD thing, not to mention all the accidents it would cause.

Even if Northern suburbs of Houston see ice, I would not ecpect enough accumulation to cause anything major as far as accidents. Looks like the ground and road may be warm enough to prevent ice from forming - but bridges and overpasses may be another story. Right now I see about a 1 in 4 chance of anything more than a trace of ice accumulation south of the Woodlands.

[Extremeweatherguy]

WOW!!!!!!!!! Latest ETA run is in, and look at the precip. it has for Houston tomorrow:

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US

Sleet and Frz. rain!?!? If this ETA is right, then we could be in for a big event. The model starts the sleet late tonight or very early tomorrow morning and has it continue, mixed with freezing rain, until Monday afternoon. This scenario would probably be a worst case scenario for Houston and would probably lead to 0.25"+ amounts of ice. Now I am not saying I think this will happen..all I am doing is showing that a model thinks this can happen...and the ETA (NAM) is usually good in these kind of events.

[jasons2k]

Here is a special weather statement from the Lake Charles NWS and it includes Beaumont. If they are expecting ice over there (where less of the cold air will be)...then I am sure we would get it here too:

Not exactly, even the statement itself says the core of the cold is pushing into the TN valley, which is well EAST of here.

I don't think the ice will get any closer than Huntsville, maybe, *maybe* Conroe, and I HOPE it stays thay way. The trees down here are all blooming out; ice would be a very BAD thing, not to mention all the accidents it would cause.

Even if Northern suburbs of Houston see ice, I would not ecpect enough accumulation to cause anything major as far as accidents. Looks like the ground and road may be warm enough to prevent ice from forming - but bridges and overpasses may be another story. Right now I see about a 1 in 4 chance of anything more than a trace of ice accumulation south of the Woodlands.

Yeah, I definately don't expect anything on the roads themselves here, but after seeing many o' ice storm in Dallas, all it takes is an infantile glaze of ice on the overpasses to cause major havoc. Even a little freezing drizzle would spark hundreds of accidents in the Metroplex.

[cheezyWXguy]

man...I have no more hope in winter this year...I hate this...I saw 1 ice flurrie...so much for 1/10 of an inch maybe next year

[jasons2k]

I haven't checked my *real* thermometer outside, but just since I've been online for the last 30 min. or so, my Weatherbug set to the John Cooper School in The Woodlands has dropped from 41 to 40.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I haven't checked my *real* thermometer outside, but just since I've been online for the last 30 min. or so, my Weatherbug set to the John Cooper School in The Woodlands has dropped from 41 to 40.

Yes, I would expect a slow steady temp. drop today as lower dew points creep into the area from the north. By late day, I expect many areas to be in the 30s. I think our real concern will be tomorrow. Check the ETA in my post above and you can see what I mean.

[Extremeweatherguy]

As of latest report...dew points have dropped 1F in the last hour at Conroe, Hooks and IAH. Also, temps. have fallen 1F at Hooks.

Current Dew points:

Conroe = 36F
Hooks = 37F
IAH = 38F

This is a good site to see National Dewpoints...you can also watch for trends over the hours in our area:

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag338.html

[Furious George]

WOW!!!!!!!!! Latest ETA run is in, and look at the precip. it has for Houston tomorrow:

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US

Sleet and Frz. rain!?!? If this ETA is right, then we could be in for a big event. The model starts the sleet late tonight or very early tomorrow morning and has it continue, mixed with freezing rain, until Monday afternoon. This scenario would probably be a worst case scenario for Houston and would probably lead to 0.25"+ amounts of ice. Now I am not saying I think this will happen..all I am doing is showing that a model thinks this can happen...and the ETA (NAM) is usually good in these kind of events.

Is it just me or is the ETA guidance much colder than the NGM or GFS? See below for IAH temps. Maybe it is initiizling too low on the temps - I don't know.

IAH S NGM MOS GUIDANCE 2/18/06 1200 UTC
DAY /FEB 18 /FEB 19 /FEB 20 /
HOUR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00
MN/MX 37 44 44 61
TEMP 40 40 40 39 38 38 38 37 38 41 43 44 46 48 50 52 56 59 59
DEWPT 39 39 37 35 34 33 34 33 36 39 39 39 41 44 47 50 53 56 55

KIAH GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/18/2006 1200 UTC
DT /FEB 18/FEB 19 /FEB 20 /FEB 21
HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X 34 43 41 64 58
TMP 37 39 40 39 37 37 36 36 37 39 40 43 43 43 43 49 60 63 60 60 61
DPT 37 39 35 32 31 31 30 31 36 39 38 38 39 40 41 46 51 53 55 58 59


KIAH ETA MOS GUIDANCE 2/18/2006 1200 UTC
DT /FEB 18/FEB 19 /FEB 20 /FEB 21
HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X 28 33 33 41 37
TMP 34 36 35 36 34 33 33 28 29 32 31 33 34 34 34 35 35 38 40 39 38
DPT 34 36 33 29 27 27 27 26 29 32 31 28 30 31 31 30 32 36 39 36 36

[gboudx]

EWG, I wouldn't trust those NAM outputs too much. According to those predictions, DFW should be seeing a lot of freezing rain/sleet right now. Well, that's just not the case. There was a little bit earlier, but not as much as the NAM is showing.

[jasons2k]

Ys, it is, it's way off

[cheezyWXguy]

i have no more faith....i guess ill wait till next winter to hope for another one...at least i get 10 bucks on the sleet...and my tennis tournament was cancelled

[Extremeweatherguy]

i have no more faith....i guess ill wait till next winter to hope for another one...at least i get 10 bucks on the sleet...and my tennis tournament was cancelled

Well you do still have the rest of today and tomorrow to go. I wouldn't give up hope yet..anything can happen.

[cheezyWXguy]

i have no more faith....i guess ill wait till next winter to hope for another one...at least i get 10 bucks on the sleet...and my tennis tournament was cancelled

Well you do still have the rest of today and tomorrow to go. I wouldn't give up hope yet..anything can happen.

the problem is that were so dry...the core of the moisture is all the way into TN...by tomorrow itll be well gone...besides, it looks like tomorrow might be ur day, EWG...I hope u dont get as much of a disappointment as us

[gboudx]

cheezy is right, the radar returns up here don't really show much in terms of covereage, or new development. And there doesn't appear to be any new development south, west or southwest of us. This appears to be just a really cold arctic outbreak for us. At least the grass that started growing in my yard will now die off.

[cheezyWXguy]

man i was really looking forward to having a big sleetstorm out of this tonite like they said would happen...oh well maybe next year...this reminds me of 2001-2002 how we got some flurries one day and it never stuck and that was our entire winter in one day...the next winter(2002-2003) we had a major ice/sleet storm...was that just some kind of coincidence or not?