ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthFLTropics]

Oh the drama of the models...One run we are safe with a recurve east of the Bahamas, next run we are getting a strengthening system on our doorstep. I personally feel all of the models are going to be bunk until she clears the big islands...then we can get a better handle on the system.

Just an observation here in Port St. Lucie...today is the first day in sometime that we have seen significant Tstorms moving across the coast from West to East. No question about the fact that the trough has dug south and pushed away the easterly flow we had been seeing for the last few days.

SFT

[AdamFirst]

18z models are wild cards...but this is a pretty significant shift.

[Aric Dunn]

again sot surprised.. considering the motion today.. models have to respond to that.. that and current synoptics still showing plenty of 500 mb ridging north of emily.

[SouthDadeFish]

Well this should shift the consensus a little farther back west....

[Kory]

Yes I do see a small opportunity for a shift a little closer to Florida, but the sub-Atlantic ridge should be far enough to the east that it leaves a huge door open. These tropical models have been switching back and forth like crazy.

GFS showing a large opening between the two ridges with plenty of space to move far enough from Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

landfall actually vero beach

[wzrgirl1]

Hope we don't wake up tomorrow morning to an even more significant westward shift of the models. Aric, at this point, do you feel that Southern Florida will be under any type of watches if it follows the NHC projected path? I am thinking possibly just a Tropical Storm Watch maybe late Thursday. Opinion?

[ronjon]

Models are windshield wipering east then west the last couple of days. We won't have a clear idea until she crosses Haiti/DR/eastern Cuba. But those deepening dynamic model runs from the GFDL and HWRF are getting scary for the FL east coast.

[SouthFLTropics]

Welcome to all newbies! You have the best site on the internet for discussion. Please keep asking questions as we all learn from the incredible knowledge base that comments here regularly.

I know this is off topic but I have to agree with this post 100%. It is good to see a lot of new people here at S2K. Keep in mind that sometimes you will see some bickering and static but please ignore the background noise and occasional troll and stay and learn something. The moderators do an excellent job with the site and keeping things moving and clearing out the riff raff. Welcome to all of the newbies that are here. Feel free to ask questions anytime...you will find that there are many people here that are a wealth of information. I go NOWHERE else the inside scoop on tropical weather. People I work with are always asking me how I know what is going to happen before the NHC puts out the information...I tell em Storm2k.org baby!!!

Now back to the topic...before the Mods come and police me! LOL

[Aric Dunn]

Hope we don't wake up tomorrow morning to an even more significant westward shift of the models. Aric, at this point, do you feel that Southern Florida will be under any type of watches if it follows the NHC projected path? I am thinking possibly just a Tropical Storm Watch maybe late Thursday. Opinion?

the NHC track .. probably not.. unless its on the western side of the cone..

[artist]

Yes I do see a small opportunity for a shift a little closer to Florida, but the sub-Atlantic ridge should be far enough to the east that it leaves a huge door open. These tropical models have been switching back and forth like crazy.

GFS showing a large opening between the two ridges with plenty of space to move far enough from Florida.

the problem is maps such as this are predictions, and with this time of year just a slight variance can make all the difference in the world. IF the models didn't keep flip flopping I wouldn't be quite so concerned but the pattern changes just slightly, the storm continues on a further westward track for longer than thought, and this is what keeps us on pins and needles until the storm is safely past.

[Jevo]

Hope we don't wake up tomorrow morning to an even more significant westward shift of the models. Aric, at this point, do you feel that Southern Florida will be under any type of watches if it follows the NHC projected path? I am thinking possibly just a Tropical Storm Watch maybe late Thursday. Opinion?

the NHC track .. probably not.. unless its on the western side of the cone..

OT: Congratz on your 7000th post Aric

[Aric Dunn]

funny how the eastern outlier ... the gfdl is now west to match the western outlier.. .. also funny the two models shifted west again after the bams did ...

[SunnyThoughts]

Yeah, Eric. It seems when the Bams lead...others follow.

[capepoint]

carolinas may have to start watching the models more in my opinion

already are, and have been for the last couple days. That said, way too early to worry about the Carolinas. Models don't mean squat for us right now...will be more interested around thursday/friday...

right now its about caribbean islands, t&c, bahamas, and fla.

[Bocadude85]

funny how the eastern outlier ... the gfdl is now west to match the western outlier.. .. also funny the two models shifted west again after the bams did ...

The NHC uses the 18z models to come up with a revised track for its 11pm update?

[Aric Dunn]

toggle the last few images.. look how far west the gfdl shifted

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 1&title=05

[Aric Dunn]

funny how the eastern outlier ... the gfdl is now west to match the western outlier.. .. also funny the two models shifted west again after the bams did ...

The NHC uses the 18z models to come up with a revised track for its 11pm update?

yes dont you remember last night discussion about the gfs 18z

[wzrgirl1]

With a storm like this, I get nervous for the people who are not as vigilant or as knowledgeable as us because a storm like this can change in an instant and catch many people by surprise, and if you are not keeping up with the advisories and/or models that you can really get caught off guard.

[Aric Dunn]

start at about image 66 and see what happens every time the bam models shift..
lol

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 1&title=05