ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jaguars_22]

So it is weakening. What's the estimates for Victoria would u guess

[Hammy]

I don't think I've seen the eye remain this well defined this long after initial landfall before.

[meriland29]

I thought Victoria would get the most rain

[jaguars_22]

Does it still look like Victoria will see 100+

[Blinhart]

Does it still look like Victoria will see 100+

Good possibility, if not sustained you will get at least gusts over 100 and still expected to get 3 feet of rain.

[Steve]

Can someone summarize what's going on?


I'm reading through and there's a bunch of stuff (Walmart roof torn apart, high school destroyed, gas line explosion, chasers fleeing, etc..).

Also Rock was in a feeder squall with debris hitting his windows and jaguars_22 had been in a closet for a few hours scared but probably not getting anywhere near the force that was along the coast.

[Blinhart]

TWC just said that they are expecting him to stay a Hurricane until Sunday Morning, so that is dangerous.

[jaguars_22]

Thanks so much for keeping us updated and for looking out for us! I would do the same for you guys.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I'm going to probably have to call it soon for tonight, but what comes over the next few days is what I'm dreading.

I just found out my family's house is in a 100 year flood zone. They could very well go underwater.

[Steve]

So it is weakening. What's the estimates for Victoria would u guess

Bands are creeping your way. It's likely to get way worse over the next 12 hours or so
The north side by you isn't as extreme at the moment but the northern eye wall isn't that far away. You'll probably get 100mph gusts late tonight and tomorrow. 20+ inches of rain?

[lhpfish]

time for a nap, it's insane to say this is just getting started.

[meriland29]

this thing is so slow. What worries me is the loopdy loo it does near Victoria, and back to the coast. Do you think that would reestablish strength?

Also, the persistence, I don't know, do you anticipate this will be as bad as Katrina?

[jaguars_22]

So your thinking 1hour until worse winds

[sponger]

this thing is so slow. What worries me is the loopdy loo it does near Victoria, and back to the coast. Do you think that would reestablish strength?

Also, the persistence, I don't know, do you anticipate this will be as bad as Katrina?

Likely just a slow steady weakening.

[Janie2006]

Unlikely to get many on-the-spot reports right now given the time of night and disruption of communications. Daylight will reveal more of the story. Those chasers are smart cookies. I'm sure they're squirreled away somewhere and recording.

[Janie2006]

I presume Rock has a generator. Power outages have to be widespread at this point.

[1900hurricane]

00Z ECMWF is just as rainfall crazy as the GFS. 50" gets broken by tau 102.

[jaguars_22]

What's euro showing for Victoria rain

[Steve]

this thing is so slow. What worries me is the loopdy loo it does near Victoria, and back to the coast. Do you think that would reestablish strength?

Also, the persistence, I don't know, do you anticipate this will be as bad as Katrina?

It's different. Katrina had storm surge destroy coastal MS and lower Mobile Co. in Alabama. The levees broke in New Orleans with nowhere for the water to go. Some parts of the city stayed flooded through much of September. This will be a combination of wind destruction along the coast in mostly smaller cities and then the potential for flooding rainfall over a very large area of Texas where probably close to 16MM people live. Depending on where it's the worst will determine the extent. As far as damage, I think it was 108B. This is anywhere from 7 to maybe 25 billion. Big range based on Who floods.

[Callista]

I doubt it'll be as bad as Katrina, at least not in terms of human lives. Probably a lot of damage to repair, but not that sort of devastation. I'm expecting something more like Hurricane Andrew's weaker little brother--costly, widespread, but not the nightmare that Katrina was.