ATL: IKE Discussion

[Frank2]

Funny how folks are now supporting the models that forecast this track, when, just last Thursday of Friday if anyone had mentioned the WSW track based on these same models they would have been accused of -removed-...

Folks sure can be fickle sometimes...

[x-y-no]

Isn't that a trough digging down off the west coast of florida?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Almost looks like a ULL is trying to develop in the GOM.

Certainly not at the mid-level, where the ridge is still very strong. 12Z soundings all the way from Miami along the Gulf coast to Brownsville show 500mb heights at 5900 or higher. Key west has 5880.

Ike won't be turning northward into that for a while.

[KWT]

I'm starting to see a *slight* north of west motion now with the inner core, there really isn't an per say any more but the inner core is still obvious enough as is the center of the circulation. It doesn't matter much as its obvious its going to get int othe Caribbean and given the way the coast curves up if it holds its current motion it stays offshore for quite a while as well...

Still could be an illusion ass the core starts to move over water again.

[canes04]

>>This could get interesting!!

This already is interesting. I don't understand. Did you mean, "this could get interesting for me?" Please elaborate. kthx

Steve

I meant the future track could change in the GOM.

[boca]

I think the Yucatan like I've said earlier will be dealing with Ike.

[HURAKAN]

IMO, TS Warning is now required for the Cayman Islands.

[baitism]

Motion sure looks due west per visible

[Frank2]

I agree, totally - it seems they might have an unexpected visitor, but, that might mean a miss for LA and TX - we'll see...

It's a good thing - we had a visiting Priest from New Orleans yesterday, and, he said most of his (church) Parish was still without power...

It'd be terrible if they were hit again so soon after Gustav...

[Pebbles]

Looking at cuban radar looks to me that even if Ike started going NW now.. it's still going back over water. Kind of a given at this point.

[ROCK]

>>This could get interesting!!

This already is interesting. I don't understand. Did you mean, "this could get interesting for me?" Please elaborate. kthx

Steve

Steve, you are interesting... That is the only reason we like you...

[KWT]

Boca, I highly doubt it stays that much westerly, from where it is now due west would only clip the far Northern part of the Yucatan and given Ike should be reaching the western side of the high soon we should start to see Ike eventually lift towards the WNW, so its highly improbable it hits the Yucatan.

tolakram, one storm comes to mind that fooled nearly every model and that started with a K......

[cpdaman]

the weather channel mets i listened to this morning didn't even mention the NW carib for IKE

are they assuming that him getting into the NW gulf is going to be too close to land to keep him from weakening more? i don't get it

maybe they are the on air mets that can't "really" comment on what they think is happening (poltics?) that may be different than what is forecast, but rather just follow the previous nite's forecast until the director or lead meteorolgist says "ok guys this clearly has a chance to get into the NW caribean and although we haven't mentioned this, since it is likely to occur lets just use the phrase "waters south of cuba, on it's forecast track to the gulf".

[apocalypt-flyer]

Funny how folks are now supporting the models that forecast this track, when, just last Thursday of Friday if anyone had mentioned the WSW track based on these same models they would have been accused of -removed-...

Folks sure can be fickle sometimes...

NOT FICKLE

viewtopic.php?p=1806276#p1806276

[AJC3]

Looking at cuban radar looks to me that even if Ike started going NW now.. it's still going back over water. Kind of a given at this point.

Yup. Will probably slow the rate of weakening, or halt it altogether. I'm not thinking it will reintensify in the short term unless it somehow manages to continue moving due westward and eventually over the Isle of Youth, but it wouldn't be out of the question for it to do so.

[Frank2]

Yes, it can see the ocean from where it is now (if hurricanes had eyes that could see, that is)...

[boca]

I don't think mainland S FL will get more than 20 to 30 mph winds and little rain due to substanence around the storm.I don't see us getting 2 to 4 " of rain like they were predicting.I think when the NWS made their forecast Ike would have been moving WNW across the spine of Cuba, not going into the Caribbean on a due west heading. If I were in Cozamel, MX I'd pay attention to Ike.

[baitism]

baitism,
That's a great avatar - is that how all babies bath in Kansas?
Guess it's that or the kitchen sink...
LOL

I think I may have had a few like that as a baby, but on my own initiative.

As far as Ike, I think he is going to see alot more water than what is being forecasted now..

[carversteve]

Looking at cuban radar looks to me that even if Ike started going NW now.. it's still going back over water. Kind of a given at this point.

Yup. Will probably slow the rate of weakening, or halt it altogether. I'm not thinking it will reintensify in the short term unless it somehow manages to continue moving due westward and eventually over the Isle of Youth, but it wouldn't be out of the question for it to do so.

Just a question from a weather lover..What would keep it from reintensifying if it goes into the carribean? Thanks in advance!

[KWT]

Yup. Will probably slow the rate of weakening, or halt it altogether. I'm not thinking it will reintensify in the short term unless it somehow manages to continue moving due westward and eventually over the Isle of Youth, but it wouldn't be out of the question for it to do so.

I agree however the thing any water track will do is help to steady the inner core from its current degeneration trend which is not a good thing really. Exactly how long this can keep up is important, a few hours over water won't make a huge difference to its strength when it enters the gulf but longer and we may see some differences...

[Sanibel]

GFDL continues to amaze. This is the south of Cuba track of GFDL of two days ago you are seeing here. That flat west is something I didn't expect but there it is. This is like Dean and Felix where no one expected a strong ridge all the way across to Central America. Ike is about to get all water again. Should be interesting after what this area did for Gus recently.

The long and the short of this is watch where GFDL goes after Ike emerges from Cuba in a day or so. TV is saying trough will miss and Highs will bridge over GOM.

I agree however the thing any water track will do is help to steady the inner core from its current degeneration trend which is not a good thing really. Exactly how long this can keep up is important, a few hours over water won't make a huge difference to its strength when it enters the gulf but longer and we may see some differences...

Exactly.