Texas Winter 2014-2015

[weatherdude1108]

According to the NWS forecast this minute, it states the rain will change to freezing rain after noon on Monday. That would be worst case scenario for people already at school and work. But then it says little or no ice accumulation expected.

Cedar Park TX

7 Day Forecast
Detailed Forecast

Today Rain. High near 53. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tonight Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Rain or freezing rain likely, becoming all freezing rain after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 33. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.

Monday Night A chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday A slight chance of freezing rain before 9am, then a slight chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 41. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... Onhe9B6jqD

[srainhoutx]

According to the NWS forecast this minute, it states the rain will change to freezing rain after noon on Monday. That would be worst case scenario for people already at school and work. But then it says little or no ice accumulation expected.

Look for 'fine tuning' today of the current Advisories as the new data becomes available. I suspect by the afternoon we WILL see some changes made in the current Winter Weather Advisories across portions of Central/SE Texas and possibly into SW Louisiana.

[SouthernMet]

Winter Weather Advisory issued for Hill Country/Austin/San Marcos/Georgetown/PWC.

SREF still bullish with 20's Monday afternoon.

Southern, this is for Austin? Us???!!!! Don't see temps on wxbell for this....It could be I need coffee or a nap....

Yup that's what the 3z showed, 9z is not as cold, but still below freezing.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplu ... YP=roadmap

[Brandon8181]

I'm so excited to finally have a winter storm!! Don't get me wrong, I'm not excited about dangeeous driving conditions or power outages. However, it's just nice to have a real winter storm without it being a bust.

I use to live in Sherman/Denison near TexasSnowman, but now that I'm in Tyler we just don't have much winter

[Tejas89]

KRLD had Joe Harris from the FWD NWS on earlier. Confidence very high in the storm.

Synopsis was this could be "just under" the Dec. 2013 event for the metroplex. At least 1/2" accumulation for the immediate area with higher amounts locally if heavier showers develop. He thinks the heaviest precip will be northwest, and mentioned Jacksboro among others.

[orangeblood]

Why is Wfaa Ch. 8 misleading those in the DFW Metroplex ? They are leaving the metroplex counties and those to the south out of the warning area when clearly NWS has issued Winter Storm Warnings for those areas. This is irresponsible journalism at its core - not informing the public of a threat to it's own viewers, particularly one within 24 hours.

[Portastorm]

According to the NWS forecast this minute, it states the rain will change to freezing rain after noon on Monday. That would be worst case scenario for people already at school and work. But then it says little or no ice accumulation expected.

Look for 'fine tuning' today of the current Advisories as the new data becomes available. I suspect by the afternoon we WILL see some changes made in the current Winter Weather Advisories across portions of Central/SE Texas and possibly into SW Louisiana.

I feel like at this time EWX is off on the timing. Monday AM rush not the concern. It will be Monday PM rush and overnight into Tuesday AM that's the real concern. A bit worrisome that the 12z GFS coming out now shows light precip lingering well into Tues for portions of south central and southeast Texas. Remember that QPF amounts can be light but a steady drizzle over a number of hours with surface temps below freezing can create a lot of misery in urban areas.

[Shoshana]

According to the NWS forecast this minute, it states the rain will change to freezing rain after noon on Monday. That would be worst case scenario for people already at school and work. But then it says little or no ice accumulation expected.

Look for 'fine tuning' today of the current Advisories as the new data becomes available. I suspect by the afternoon we WILL see some changes made in the current Winter Weather Advisories across portions of Central/SE Texas and possibly into SW Louisiana.

I feel like at this time EWX is off on the timing. Monday AM rush not the concern. It will be Monday PM rush and overnight into Tuesday AM that's the real concern. A bit worrisome that the 12z GFS coming out now shows light precip lingering well into Tues for portions of south central and southeast Texas. Remember that QPF amounts can be light but a steady drizzle over a number of hours with surface temps below freezing can create a lot of misery in urban areas.

That's what I was thinking too - it looks like Monday afternoon/ evening through Tuesday morning ...

[srainhoutx]

Look for 'fine tuning' today of the current Advisories as the new data becomes available. I suspect by the afternoon we WILL see some changes made in the current Winter Weather Advisories across portions of Central/SE Texas and possibly into SW Louisiana.

I feel like at this time EWX is off on the timing. Monday AM rush not the concern. It will be Monday PM rush and overnight into Tuesday AM that's the real concern. A bit worrisome that the 12z GFS coming out now shows light precip lingering well into Tues for portions of south central and southeast Texas. Remember that QPF amounts can be light but a steady drizzle over a number of hours with surface temps below freezing can create a lot of misery in urban areas.

Even the Texas Tech 3km WRF is suggesting freezing rain and sleet across Central and SE Texas. It is a bit interesting that the GFS is 'sniffing' a Coastal low developing Tuesday into Wednesday, so that needs to be watched as the main upper trough and stronger upper air disturbance advances E across Central Texas. That upper air feature cools the column and narrows the warm nose fairly substantially.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Winter Storm heading for TX.

Increasing threat for ice accumulation over portions of SE TX Monday evening-Tuesday morning.

Surface cool front currently lies along a line from Columbus to BUSH IAH to Cleveland with temperatures falling into the 50’s north of this boundary and rising into the 70’s south of the boundary. Front has shown very little movement this morning and do not expect much more southerly progress for much of today…in fact some of the high resolution guidance actually lifts the front back northward midday. Of bigger importance is the arctic front currently plowing through the panhandle. Temperatures behind this boundary are in the 10’s and this air mass is moving quickly southward and should push across SE TX and off the coast this evening with a much more significant temperature fall.

Strong cold air advection will onset this evening and continue Monday. Temperatures will fall from this evening through the day on Monday. Temperatures Monday morning in the lower 40’s will gradually fall during the day toward the mid 30’s by late afternoon as ice/sleet accumulation develops over north TX on Monday. Model guidance has trended a degree or two colder for Monday night and Tuesday morning which requires the freezing line to be shifted southward bringing more of the area under the threat for freezing drizzle. Additionally, what seemed marginal freezing temperatures yesterday (30-32) are now expected to be closer to 28-30 over our northern counties Tuesday morning and this is certainly into the critical threshold for ice accumulation on bridges and overpasses. Forecast profiles continue to support a very strong warm layer aloft over top of a shallow surface freezing layer (maybe 1000-2000 ft thick). This continues to support a rain/freezing rain P-type…however some of the latest soundings are showing a smaller warm layer aloft from Huntsville to Livingston Tuesday morning and this could support a mixture of freezing rain and sleet over Walker, Polk, Trinity, and San Jacinto Counties.

Freezing Line:
Of course the critical factor is how far south the freezing line progresses into the region. Current indications suggest the freezing line will extend from Columbus to Waller to between Conroe/The Woodlands to Cleveland from late Monday evening through Tuesday morning. This line has been shifted southward about 50 miles since yesterday. Both GFS and NAM guidance do suggest BUSH IAH does fall to 31-32 for a window Tuesday morning and this is possible between roughly 1100pm Monday and 900am Tuesday. Official forecast has IAH falling to 32 Tuesday morning so pockets of freezing temperatures are possible over northern and northwest Harris County overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Best thinking at the moment is that the north and west portions of Harris County will fall to 32-33 with the rest of the county and metro Houston falling to 33-34. A degree or two could make all the difference between minor ice accumulation in Harris County and no ice at all.

Ice Accumulation:
Forecast models show general lift being maintained Monday night into early Tuesday when critical temperatures will be reached over portions of the area. Liquid QPF amounts range from .05-.10 of an inch in mainly a drizzle or light rain. Ice accumulation will be greatest from Huntsville to Livingston where temperatures will be colder the longest and likely fall into the upper 20’s resulting in effective freezing of the liquid precipitation. Accumulations in this area will likely average .05-.10 of an inch which is just under the .12 of an inch for our local winter storm warning criteria. North of a line from Columbus to Waller to Conroe to Cleveland ice accumulation of .03-.06 of an inch is possible. Temperatures in this area will be in the 30-32 degree range resulting in a less effective freezing process since the falling precipitation will need to be cooled after passing through the warm layer aloft. Bridges and overpasses are also fairly warm from the recent warmth and will take time to cool to freezing so this region has a more conditional ice accumulation threat especially on bridges and overpasses.

Decision Support Matrix:

Burleson, Madison, Walker, Trinity, San Jacinto, Polk:

Ice Accumulation: .05-.10 of an inch

Timing: 600pm Monday-1000am Tuesday

Temperatures: 28-30 degrees

Winds: NNE 10-15mph

Confidence: high



Transportation: prepare for anti-ice operations

Education: delays and cancellations possible

Aviation: anti-ice operations likely

Power: isolated outages possible

Brazos, Grimes, Washington, Montgomery, Waller, northern Liberty:

Ice Accumulation: .03-.06 of an inch

Timing: 1000pm Monday-1000am Tuesday

Temperatures: 30-32 degrees

Winds: NNE 10-15mph

Confidence: moderate



Transportation: standby for anti-ice operations

Education: delays and cancellations possible

Aviation: anti-ice operations likely

Power: isolated outages possible

Austin, Colorado, north Harris, central Liberty:

Ice Accumulation: patchy ice accumulation possible

Timing: 1100pm Monday-900am Tuesday

Temperatures: 31-33 degrees

Winds: NNE 10-15mph

Confidence: low to moderate



Transportation: monitor trends/standby equipment and personnel

Education: delays possible

Aviation: anti-ice operations possible at Hooks and IAH

Power: None

Fort Bend, southern Harris, Wharton, Jackson, Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers:

Ice Accumulation: None expected at this time

Timing: N/A

Temperatures: 33-35 degrees

Winds: NNE 14-18mph

Confidence: moderate



Transportation: None

Education: None

Aviation: None

Power: None

Will update again this evening.

[stormlover2013]

srainhoutx-what is it looking like for the Lumberton area/Hardin county ?

[TheProfessor]

It seems like the models have already underdone the precip for today, Abilene is under a flood advisory, I wonder if they will under do the precip that's going to occur while we are below freezing?

[srainhoutx]

srainhoutx-what is it looking like for the Lumberton area/Hardin county ?

Most of the guidance I've seen shows you folks in the Piney Woods of far SE Texas into Lake Charles really close to the freezing line. You may even be a degree or two colder than IAH.

[stormlover2013]

Thanks for the update!!

[Tammie]

Fxus64 kfwd 221528 afdfwd Area forecast discussion National Weather Service fort worth tx 928 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 Aviation: Update, tafs are pretty much unchanged as timing of major features is on track. I am concerned about the thunderstorms out west because guidance is struggling to pinpoint the instability location and movement. As the 12Z data trickles in, one model advects the instability aloft into the metroplex but another keeps it out west. We will closely watch the trends in guidance/lightning data/radar and if ts becomes a threat for metroplex airports will be quick to amend. As temps cool, any heavy tsra has the potential to cool the lower layers and become tspl.

What are they trying to say? It won't make it here, or it will make it after DFW is below freezing? TIA.

[Ralph's Weather]

Fxus64 kfwd 221528 afdfwd Area forecast discussion National Weather Service fort worth tx 928 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 Aviation: Update, tafs are pretty much unchanged as timing of major features is on track. I am concerned about the thunderstorms out west because guidance is struggling to pinpoint the instability location and movement. As the 12Z data trickles in, one model advects the instability aloft into the metroplex but another keeps it out west. We will closely watch the trends in guidance/lightning data/radar and if ts becomes a threat for metroplex airports will be quick to amend. As temps cool, any heavy tsra has the potential to cool the lower layers and become tspl.

What are they trying to say? It won't make it here, or it will make it after DFW is below freezing? TIA.

It sounds to me like they are not sure if the instability will reach the Metroplex.

[CaptinCrunch]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1051 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 TXZ091>093-100>104-115>119-222230- /O.CON.KFWD.WS.W.0001.150223T0000Z-150224T0000Z/ MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-STEPHENS- PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE... SHERMAN...DENISON...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR... BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY... PLANO...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR... FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS 1051 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... *

TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...MAINLY SLEET. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAINLY EARLY THIS EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO BELOW FREEZING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. * MAIN IMPACT...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. BRIDGES ARE LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE ICE AND SLEET FIRST WITH MAIN ROADS ALSO ACCUMULATING SLEET AND POSSIBLY SOME ICE DURING THIS TIME.

* OTHER IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY ICE ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MELTING MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WARNING AREA WILL BE VERY HAZARDOUS...AND POSSIBLY IMPASSIBLE. DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS IT IS NECESSARY.

[Ntxw]

GFS is getting colder low to mid 20s most of tomorrow, that is a big problem even if the precip is light. Hope it is snow because the sleet will stick to the roads like glue with those temperatures. Aloft it continues to look colder.

[Wntrwthrguy]

GFS is getting colder low to mid 20s most of tomorrow, that is a big problem even if the precip is light. Hope it is snow because the sleet will stick to the roads like glue with those temperatures. Aloft it continues to look colder.

What's it showing for the Austin area?

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS is getting colder low to mid 20s most of tomorrow, that is a big problem even if the precip is light. Hope it is snow because the sleet will stick to the roads like glue with those temperatures. Aloft it continues to look colder.

What's it showing for the Austin area?

I was gonna ask along those lines as well. I'm currently in College Station wondering what this might mean for us as well in terms of temp and p-type