Texas Winter 2018-2019

[cheezyWXguy]

Dfw has been upgraded to slight risk in the latest spc outlook

[hamburgerman7070]

I got a question. Mjo is supposed to get into phase 8 then 1 and 2. If that happens, can we be more optimistic or does that not matter at this point, considering its the first time all winter it may do that.

[bubba hotep]

Dfw has been upgraded to slight risk in the latest spc outlook

Lol, it's been a tough day for SPC, this is back towards to the early morning update after they slowly shifted it north during the day until the slight was pushed up almost to the Red River.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Slipping into phase 8 to 1 is our only hope. As of now it's predicted, but very far out. It's showing it in a VERY strong way at the moment. If that happens, i'd expect it to be very stormy and cold in the lower 48 east of the rockies.

[bubba hotep]

I got a question. Mjo is supposed to get into phase 8 then 1 and 2. If that happens, can we be more optimistic or does that not matter at this point, considering its the first time all winter it may do that.

There is still reason to be optimistic until we move into mid-March. This MJO pass through 8/1/2 has actually been trending towards a truer MJO pulse with less influence from ERW & KW. I posted a filtered image over the weekend that showed a very low amp MJO pulse, lower than the January pass, but now the filtered image is showing a truer MJO.



This should allow for a more predictable response from the influence of tropical convection on the downstream pattern over N. America. We may finally see a -NAO develop as we head into the 2nd half of February. Obviously, this is based on the models being right about the MJO and how it will influence the mid-lats but there is reason to believe that this is real. A lot of the analogs that I looked at this afternoon had snow in February & March for N. Texas during past similar patterns.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I got a question. Mjo is supposed to get into phase 8 then 1 and 2. If that happens, can we be more optimistic or does that not matter at this point, considering its the first time all winter it may do that.

There is still reason to be optimistic until we move into mid-March. This MJO pass through 8/1/2 has actually been trending towards a truer MJO pulse with less influence from ERW & KW. I posted a filtered image over the weekend that showed a very low amp MJO pulse, lower than the January pass, but now the filtered image is showing a truer MJO.

https://i.ibb.co/7yJ5F8S/Filtered-MJO-25%2019.png

This should allow for a more predictable response from the influence of tropical convection on the downstream pattern over N. America. We may finally see a -NAO develop as we head into the 2nd half of February. Obviously, this is based on the models being right about the MJO and how it will influence the mid-lats but there is reason to believe that this is real. A lot of the analogs that I looked at this afternoon had snow in February & March for N. Texas during past similar patterns.

The latest GFS ensembles show a pretty robust MJO swinging through 7-8.

[HockeyTx82]

https://youtu.be/SHjSXQ_0rbQ

Is that Wxman57 doing the forecast in that video?

[harp]

Question: If the MJO is truly moving to phase 8, when would it show up in the operational model runs?

[bubba hotep]

Question: If the MJO is truly moving to phase 8, when would it show up in the operational model runs?

Last two weeks of February, based on current modeling.

[harp]

Question: If the MJO is truly moving to phase 8, when would it show up in the operational model runs?

Last two weeks of February, based on current modeling.

Thank you. Keep us posted with your thoughts.

[spencer817]

00z EURO has some snow for DFW this weekend

[Brent]

00z EURO has some snow for DFW this weekend

That Friday wave has sure shifted north

I did notice also several GFS ensembles did show a little snow by Saturday

this map is way overdone looking at the precip maps but still

[Haris]

Most of that will be virga imo. Too much dry air per the soundings. That is the case both in C and N TX

[Brent]

Most of that will be virga imo. Too much dry air per the soundings. That is the case both in C and N TX

Yeah looking at the precip maps I'm thinking its closer to a flizzard than accumulating snow

But maybe we'll be wrong lol

[Cpv17]

I for one am just glad it’s going to get cold again for a few days. It’s been downright nasty here these past few days. I shouldn’t be sweating doing yard work in February.

[gpsnowman]

Well I am up for work. Line of rain moving in. Doesn't look all that impressive but maybe we get some T&L out of it. Rain is good.

[Brent]

Well I am up for work. Line of rain moving in. Doesn't look all that impressive but maybe we get some T&L out of it. Rain is good.

71 at the airport 40 in Bowie gonna be a shock to some people by lunchtime

[HockeyTx82]

Nice little storm here in Ponder. The dog is spooked and she woke me up.

Quite a temp gradient as you all have mentioned.

[gpsnowman]

Well I am up for work. Line of rain moving in. Doesn't look all that impressive but maybe we get some T&L out of it. Rain is good.

71 at the airport 40 in Bowie gonna be a shock to some people by lunchtime

Good weather day ahead. Rain then wind and dropping temps. Hey, it is something!!!!

[gpsnowman]

I take back what I said. This line is impressive. Quick but impressive.