Ivan Advisories

[Derek Ortt]

these forecasts have been pointing at the panhandle for the last 2-3 days (initial ones may have been just a bit too fast)

in Louisiana, you should be monitoring the situation closely during the next couple of days, just in case this thing does trend to the left.

Also, remember that forecasts beyond 72 hours should be used with extreme caution as they are subject to large error

[Sean in New Orleans]

Just read the discussion as it is and don't put any psychology in it and this argument is moot, IMO.

[PTPatrick]

I would consider New Orleans, MS, AL, and the Panhandle all Eastern if you divide it in half...that is not talking about the central GOM

[Raebie]

Gospel is probably pretty appropriate at the moment...

[LakeToho]

The NHC and models do not do well in the gulf. They never have.. Hurricanes seem to misbehave once they enter the gulf. I am not saying that the storm will misbehave, but I caution anyone to not take this track literally.. Take your precautions, but watch this storm carefully. We are still 4-5 days out from a landfall (maybe soon depending upon how well Ivan behaves)... The hurricane is about to enter the playground.

[Opal storm]

1 and 2 seem pretty likely.

[dennis1x1]

lol...."eastern gulf of mexico" covers the NORTHeastern part also...

[Derek Ortt]

and ships was wonderful with alex, bonnie, charley, and earl

[Sean in New Orleans]

I agree...Bob Breck would go with the Western track straight into Mexico....so, let's go with the middle---it'll probably wind up around Mobile...maybe just to the east of there...I'm not ready to go any further West. Granted, I have a chill and fear of thinking this could come much closer to New Orleans. I'll be much more sure before I even dare to say that...it'll have to go much further west...

[Possum Trot]

Gospel worked on Power106 in Jamaica last night.

[Possum Trot]

Thanks for the heads up Raebie.

[GalvestonDuck]

Cool! They played the "One Love" song.

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /ivan.html

And intensity is based on eyewall replacement cycles; otherwise, this thing would go right up to near 200mph. Of course the cycles are almost definite, so don't expect 175kts, forecast maxes at 160kts in 12 hours--which may not be very accurate +/- a few hours.

[tronbunny]

I believe this system will move west of 90 degrees and then move north and then northeast back to an area from Mobile to Panama City, FL

Maybe we should be asking the question about the system standing in Ivan's way in the Gulf strait?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 6&start=20

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?

[anjou]

Postpone it a week. There are still reports of some troubles even getting gas.. and people who've evacuated will be streaming back in.. and .. and... just postpone it a week, OK?

[HurricaneBill]

The only two hurricanes I can think of that had surges of 20 feet or higher are Camille (24.6 ft) and Audrey (20 ft).

[Stormcenter]

these forecasts have been pointing at the panhandle for the last 2-3 days (initial ones may have been just a bit too fast)

in Louisiana, you should be monitoring the situation closely during the next couple of days, just in case this thing does trend to the left.

Also, remember that forecasts beyond 72 hours should be used with extreme caution as they are subject to large error

Yes but that's only because Florida takes up so much of GOM coastline.
The bottom line is they keep on moving leftward and leftward. If that keeps up it will enventually be in AL or MS coastline.

[Wnghs2007]

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ga/discussion.html


FXUS62 KFFC 120212 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1010 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF IVAN...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY
ENTER THE FFC CWA AS EARLY AS WED MORNING...TRAVERSING ACROSS THE
CWA WED AND WED NIGHT. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FFC CWA SHOULD MONITOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM THE TPC AND THIS OFFICE VERY CAREFULLY AS
THIS VERY STRONG SYSTEM MOVES THIS DIRECTION. DAMAGING WINDS AND
FLOODING RAINS WILL BE LIKELY IF THE CURRENT PROJECTED PATH REMAINS
TRUE.

&&

[dennis1x1]

i think this goes without saying based on any model really.

[Possum Trot]

I don't think anyone knows if this thing might not plow right through Orlando... or New Orleans for that matter.