ATL: DORIAN - Models

[AtlanticWind]

Has the GFS been pretty reliable with Dorian? I would say not really but might be a better professional answer.

Not really early on but that doesn't really matter.
Still the 2nd most reliable Global model.

[Ubuntwo]

GFS about the same results given all day, maybe slight trend W over the day until 00z... I'm hoping the HP data collected showed a weaker HP and that data was in the 00z run tonight.

The higher pressure is shown to be stronger, however, the trough digging in and weakening it also forecast to become stronger.

[funster]

Wilmington landfall with this run? Hard to tell. Seems more of a northerly component, less to the east through 114...

[MrJames]

Anyone have the new UKMet plots?

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[otowntiger]

https://i.imgur.com/gwV0326.gif

It seems the west shifts have stopped. Based on the fact that GFS has all the data in it now and it seems to be settling on a track decently off shore I fully expect the euro to stay about where it was or maybe even shift some to the east. Carolinas may be under the gun though.

[MrJames]

[TheDreamTraveler]

Looks like 0z GFS has landfall in North Carolina...

[ConvergenceZone]

https://i.imgur.com/gwV0326.gif

It seems the west shifts have stopped. Based on the fact that GFS has all the data in it now and it seems to be settling on a track decently off shore I fully expect the euro to stay about where it was or maybe even shift some to the east.

Even if that's true, the Carolinas are in trouble. This run shows it moving it a bit inland, whereas the last run didn't show that......So Florida "MAY" be in the clear, but even if it is, attention then turns to North Carolina, but luckily it will be moving pretty damn fast by then...

[hurricaneCW]

GFS really backs up on the weakness as it heads towards the Carolinas, I wonder if that ends up being a trend. A further north or less weakness would allow him to go up the coast instead of curving sharply NE to ENE.

I know tonight's runs have the latest data ingested too.

[MrJames]

New UKMet stays about the same..

[TheDreamTraveler]

Gets pretty close to New England too. Might turn into a problem for Canada too. Looking out to september 7th it impacts Nova Scotia.

[drezee]

I do not typically post the JMA but 0z...

[Blizzard96x]

I do not typically post the JMA but 0z...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2019090100/jma_z500_mslp_eus_4.png

This is pretty interesting and I'll tell you why... It was the furthest east on the 12z Suite yesterday when the GFS skimmed the coast and the Euro went off the coast. JMA was even further east than the ECMWF at that point. Not really saying much other than the JMA could be all over the place... but, notable. Thanks for posting, probably wouldn't have looked.

[shah83]

CMC, what exactly are you doing, here? 36hr 00z

[AutoPenalti]

We know the GFS is subject to weaker ridging and stronger troughs.
I wonder what the Euro 0z will show.

[storm4u]

Canadian has a Florida landfall

[Blizzard96x]

CMC, what exactly are you doing, here? 36hr 00z

It's interesting too because the CMC hasn't really "stood out" throughout the model runs the past week for Dorian. Sure, people checked it but it hasn't done anything bold. Some models tried doing some funny things (Like the ICON up until tonights 00z going way south), but the CMC has generally been within the consensus. At 36hrs, its making a statement differentiating itself from the GFS by being so far west. Wonder what it will do next frame, but yeah... CMC and JMA telling us what happens in the Bahamas may not be figured out still.

[AtlanticWind]

CMC brings it into florida.