Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Brandon8181]

An old rule I used in the 80's and 90's growing-up: if it got to -40F in Montana, then we were in for a true historical blue norther. It hit -40F this morning.

Could you elaborate a bit? Blue norther?

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Amarillo

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
inches. Winds chills as low as -15 to -30 degrees.

* WHERE...Southern Texas Panhandle.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
could impact the morning commute. The cold wind chills as low as
25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little
as 30 minutes.

[Ralph's Weather]

Winter Storm Watches have just been hoisted for southeast Texas!

SHV still napping.

I hate to be snarky about NWS but they are slow with every winter storm historically especially here on the western edge. Thankfully we have FW CWA coverage a few miles to our west.

[Iceresistance]

NWS-San Angelo

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO
NOON CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow accumulations and dangerous wind chills. Total
snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected. Blowing and drifting
snow is expected Sunday night.

* WHERE...All of West Central Texas.

* WHEN...From midnight Saturday night to noon CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Near whiteout conditions. Power outages. Blowing and
drifting snow will drop visibility to near zero at times. Travel
could become impossible. The hazardous conditions will likely
impact the morning commute. The cold wind chills as low as 20
below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as
30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Air temperatures in the single digits and
colder may burst pipes. Pets and livestock will need extra
protection. Use extra caution when using fireplaces, stoves, and
space heaters.

[Quixotic]

An old rule I used in the 80's and 90's growing-up: if it got to -40F in Montana, then we were in for a true historical blue norther. It hit -40F this morning.

Could you elaborate a bit? Blue norther?

Texas term for a really strong arctic blast. Usually without clouds, you could see the incredible deep blue skies approaching from the north before we had pollution. Usually we'd go from 70 to below freezing in a matter of hours. Locals are familiar with it.

[Brandon8181]

Winter Storm Watches have just been hoisted for southeast Texas!

SHV still napping.

I hate to be snarky about NWS but they are slow with every winter storm historically especially here on the western edge. Thankfully we have FW CWA coverage a few miles to our west.

What? Everyone deserves a good nap. Just kidding I guess, well, I grew up in Grayson County and followed the NWS FW very closely. In the vast majority of cases they always seemed exceptional. I know it is of course easy to be the Monday morning quarter back; I guess overall I believe the performance of Fort Worth is just about as good as it gets especially some of their extremely detailed AFD’s. Hopefully we will hear from our local NWS soon with good information for the public. I can’t imagine the difficulty being in their position having to warn and try to properly prepare the public.

[Ntxw]

18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.

Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.

[jasons2k]

My high temp today may end-up being colder than tonight’s forecast low. Think about that one...

[Brandon8181]

An old rule I used in the 80's and 90's growing-up: if it got to -40F in Montana, then we were in for a true historical blue norther. It hit -40F this morning.

Could you elaborate a bit? Blue norther?

Texas term for a really strong arctic blast. Usually without clouds, you could see the incredible deep blue skies approaching from the north before we had pollution. Usually we'd go from 70 to below freezing in a matter of hours. Locals are familiar with it.

I may be too young. I’m 37 and I’ve heard the term norther, but not blue norther.

[orangeblood]

18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.

Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.

Interesting that the FW NWS is going with 3-6", this looks more like a 5-10" plus with these ratios

[Brandon8181]

My high temp today may end-up being colder than tonight’s forecast low. Think about that one...

Ha, yes sir! My high is 29 assuming I don’t warm anymore which I don’t think we will. The forecast and low tonight is 30°.

[Cpv17]

18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.

Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.

The NAM blows up in far east Texas into northern Louisiana and Arkansas. Not that impressive west of there.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

My high temp today may end-up being colder than tonight’s forecast low. Think about that one...

You and I don't live far apart ... I just got above freezing at 2 pm in Magnolia and now it's dropping again.

Methinks we could see lows near zero Tuesday morning.

[Ntxw]

18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.

Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.

The NAM blows up in far east Texas into northern Louisiana and Arkansas. Not that impressive west of there.

It's trending stronger and slower. It's a much longer duration event than what was depicted days prior. Also the coldest upper thermals is to the west and Oklahoma where the ratios are ridiculous. Sleet-fest to the east.

[bubba hotep]

18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.

Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.

Interesting that the FW NWS is going with 3-6", this looks more like a 5-10" plus with these ratios

Start conservative and then raise totals, if necessary.

[Texas Snow]

18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.

Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.

Interesting that the FW NWS is going with 3-6", this looks more like a 5-10" plus with these ratios

They used 12:1 in the AFD

[txtwister78]

[HockeyTx82]

Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.

The NAM blows up in far east Texas into northern Louisiana and Arkansas. Not that impressive west of there.

It's trending stronger and slower. It's a much longer duration event than what was depicted days prior. Also the coldest upper thermals is to the west and Oklahoma where the ratios are ridiculous. Sleet-fest to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/QqtKYHj.gif

Who does this favor for snow?

[Cpv17]

Set up on the NAM is wonderful. We even develop a trowal feature that prolongs the snow. With those temps as long as it keeps snowing you can pile it up really fast. Ratios would be to the roof for the region. And even with Kuchera maps we're assuming the model has the right handle of the profile.

The NAM blows up in far east Texas into northern Louisiana and Arkansas. Not that impressive west of there.

It's trending stronger and slower. It's a much longer duration event than what was depicted days prior. Also the coldest upper thermals is to the west and Oklahoma where the ratios are ridiculous. Sleet-fest to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/QqtKYHj.gif

Does the model not notice the SE ridge? You’d think that would slow it down?

[benrayrog]

As a kid, I remember hearing the great Harold Taft say when a blue norther was on the way: "There's nothing but a barb wire fence in between here and Oklahoma to stop it."