ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[6SpeedTA95]

If Gustav keeps tracking South and West of the NHC forecast points much longer than I think watches and warnings may be needed for the Yucatan Peninsula. At least the Northern portion.
I don't think there are any yet.

I would keep in mind that this SW movement was predicted and quite accurately by the UKMET for one model run roughly 18 to 24 hours ago. I chalked it up to an outlier.

[tolakram]

ir2, no eye visible, center most likely over SE Jamaica.



hmmm, old image ... are we in an eclipse?

[Brent]

Scary TAFB 72 hr. forecast!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

!!!!!!!!!!

[paintplaye]

Ed you do know if you are wrong I will never let it down. I am just saying it makes me angry when people just go out saying that "o we are not going to be having any more hurricanes this year". It shows a lot of foolishness on your part. I believe it is one of the most irresponsible things I have ever heard.

[Texashawk]

ir2, no eye visible, center most likely over SE Jamaica.

You know, that's the scariest tropical storm I think I've ever seen.

[6SpeedTA95]

ir2, no eye visible, center most likely over SE Jamaica.

You're not going to get a good shot at the center of circulation on a visible shot at night. I'd recommend going to the WV or infrared loop.

[6SpeedTA95]

Scary TAFB 72 hr. forecast!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

!!!!!!!!!!

cat 3 storm

[Cape Verde]

It's fun and educational to speculate where the storm is going. Competent pros can disagree and it's interesting to hear their arguments, although the good ones will admit that they are best guesses based on current information.

You can set the odds for the outcome of the USC/Ohio State game next month right now, but they will change before gametime. They certainly would change during the game, if you could get them at all.

Current information changes everything.

[cheezyWXguy]

ir2, no eye visible, center most likely over SE Jamaica.

You're not going to get a good shot at the center of circulation on a visible shot at night. I'd recommend going to the WV or infrared loop.

Those two are infinitely worse at detecting a center than visible, even at night.

[tolakram]

ir2, no eye visible, center most likely over SE Jamaica.

You're not going to get a good shot at the center of circulation on a visible shot at night. I'd recommend going to the WV or infrared loop.

That is IR2, or shortwave. The upper levels, or water vapor, aren't going to show much.

IR, color enhanced


JSL


Water vapor

[6SpeedTA95]

ir2, no eye visible, center most likely over SE Jamaica.

You're not going to get a good shot at the center of circulation on a visible shot at night. I'd recommend going to the WV or infrared loop.

Those two are infinitely worse at detecting a center than visible, even at night.

I disagree. Visible gets very tough to pickout cloud motion at night so you are forced to look for a clearing, the IR/WV at least give you some motion and there will be little convection or less convection at the very center of the storm IF it has a defined center.

And again I didn't say it had a eye, I specifically said "potential" eye as I'm watching the convection develop around a specific point and move fairly consistently around that point.

[cpdaman]

Derek was referring to the hurricane warning over Eastern Cuba last night.

And vacanechaser was referring to some of the silly posts that we're occuring yesterday afternoon regarding Gustav's "imminent" demise. What I saw yesterday afternoon with talk of an open wave and Gustav being no more was not one of S2K's better moments. And what is sadder is that very very few of those people that we're espousing those incorrect opinions were able to man up and say they were wrong.

umm no he highlighted derek's post ....pretty straight forward....sounds like he is embarressed to admit he was confused

anyhow........this storm did amaze me with how fast it got it's act back together east of jamaica in the wee hours last nite, and i think it has gotten everyone's attention......people just seem a bit stressed out by this thing and agitated......i think the agitation will go away when they see a big cat 4 ....but the stress will stay...along with a wee bit of a mix of excitement/fear for some and pure fear for others.

[Stormcenter]

Scary TAFB 72 hr. forecast!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

!!!!!!!!!!

cat 3 storm

Do they have it moving NE?!?!?!?

[ROCK]

Looks to me like the risk of a Houston hit is pretty low at this point, but we'll have to wait for another day or two to really know I think.

That is what I have been saying. Too bad they scrubbed the G-IV data mission over the Gulf today, the 0Z models could have been fed warm, tasty data fresh from the Gulf. Tomorrow nights 0Z models should get the G-IV, if they don't go cancel again for the third day in a row.


BTW, why is someone sniping at Derek? Personal history?

I am going to say this until I am blue in the face.....Galveston is in the cone period. No denying that fact Ed, though for some unknown reason you feel its necessary to keep playing down a possible west shift. I recall Rita was tightly clustered as this, then once in the GOM things begin to change. I mean we are only talking some 200 so odd miles correct from the last 18z GFS. Wouldnt take much for a shift west, high builds in strong, faster than previous thought...we are talking 4 days until a possible landfall and Gus is not even sniffing the GOM.... The models are not going to shift east or west?? in 4 days?? How long have you been tracking? I hope people in here looking for information do not become complacent.

but of course I am sure that you have some sort of logical answer to calm all our fears...


Mods- feel free to delete as this adds nothing to the discussion. I just had to get this off my chest...

[jasons2k]

Let's stop the sniping now please.

[mvtrucking]

He looks fairly close to NHC(0045) IMO...

[stormy1970al]

Let's stop the sniping now please.

I totally agree! Derek Ortt is a great asset to this board and we are lucky to have him here.

[Yankeegirl]

well i really dont like the westward track that is forecast now... even if it goes into LA, i think texas is going to get some rain or something from it? but, the track just keeps shifting west... ill check again tomorrow...

[tolakram]

I disagree. Visible gets very tough to pickout cloud motion at night so you are forced to look for a clearing, the IR/WV at least give you some motion and there will be little convection or less convection at the very center of the storm IF it has a defined center.

And again I didn't say it had a eye, I specifically said "potential" eye as I'm watching the convection develop around a specific point and move fairly consistently around that point.

Well I'm not experienced enough to say you're wrong, I'm just going on observations and past mistakes I've made.

If you want to look at all levels in a fairly equal fashion then the rainbow loop is a good one, and oh so pretty to look at.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Both it and the water vapor loop show moisture streaming away from a general central location.

[Air Force Met]

Scary TAFB 72 hr. forecast!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

!!!!!!!!!!

cat 3 storm

You guys realize that is just the official NHC forecast...right? There is nothing special in and of itself.