Texas Winter 2024-2025

[MississippiWx]

I know we don’t live at 850mb, but this is as impressive of a model ensemble output as I’ve ever seen this far out. Not to mention that it’s the European which is typically more reasonable. I don’t know about precipitation events, but this just screams extreme cold is coming.

[orangeblood]

I know we don’t live at 850mb, but this is as impressive of a model ensemble output as I’ve ever seen this far out. Not to mention that it’s the European which is typically more reasonable. I don’t know about precipitation events, but this just screams extreme cold is coming.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/L8YGxjC/IMG-5300.jpg [/url]

Really deep cold on the Euro too (BONE DRY), not your typical dense shallow cold like we normally see. Canadian is more of your shallow cold variety allowing for overrunning/upglide qpf to break out

[Throckmorton]

The EPS mean forecast temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 13th, 12Z run):

24–08...(33–B01)...B02...0.59...Amarillo
32–20...(37–17).....17......0.39...Austin Camp Mabry
29–18...(34–14).....10......0.16...Dallas
35–25...(49–21).....20......0.08...Houston
25–10...(33–03).....01......0.24...Oklahoma City
24–10...(30–06).....B03...0.20...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, all of these stations except Tulsa would get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

On average, the EPS is 5.4° cooler than the GEFS and 5.8° warmer than the GEPS.

=====

The GEFS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 13th, 12Z run):

27–11...(39–01)...B02...0.97...Amarillo
39–25...(49–20)...17.....0.15...Austin Camp Mabry
35–23...(44–18)...10.....0.08...Dallas
46–32...(56–28)...20.....0.05...Houston
29–17...(41–10)...01.....0.35...Oklahoma City
26–15...(36–10)...B03...0.37...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, only Amarillo and Austin Camp Mabry would get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

On average, the GEFS is 11.3° warmer than the GEPS.

=====

The GEPS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 13th, 12Z run):

12–B01...(23–B10)...B02...1.10...Amarillo
27–19.....(40–10)......17.....0.28...Austin Camp Mabry
22–16.....(38–07)......10.....0.35...Dallas
39–28.....(53–19)..... 20.....0.08...Houston
12–02.....(21–B04)....01.....0.39...Oklahoma City
12–02.....(22–B05)...B03...0.39...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, all of these stations would break the existing record lows. At the 50th percentile, every station except Dallas and Houston would get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

[MississippiWx]

I know we don’t live at 850mb, but this is as impressive of a model ensemble output as I’ve ever seen this far out. Not to mention that it’s the European which is typically more reasonable. I don’t know about precipitation events, but this just screams extreme cold is coming.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/L8YGxjC/IMG-5300.jpg [/url]

Really deep cold on the Euro too (BONE DRY), not your typical dense shallow cold like we normally see. Canadian is more of your shallow cold variety allowing for overrunning/upglide qpf to break out

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KDFW/cross_section_full/1736769600/1736769600-qTir2MIAaOY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gem-all/KDFW/cross_section_full/1736769600/1736769600-aZD7jHHfDHc.png

Yes, very deep cold.

Regardless, it would be hard to believe that someone in the South doesn't receive some type of winter precipitation at some point during such a cold spell.

[orangeblood]

I know we don’t live at 850mb, but this is as impressive of a model ensemble output as I’ve ever seen this far out. Not to mention that it’s the European which is typically more reasonable. I don’t know about precipitation events, but this just screams extreme cold is coming.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/L8YGxjC/IMG-5300.jpg [/url]

Really deep cold on the Euro too (BONE DRY), not your typical dense shallow cold like we normally see. Canadian is more of your shallow cold variety allowing for overrunning/upglide qpf to break out

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-deterministic/KDFW/cross_section_full/1736769600/1736769600-qTir2MIAaOY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gem-all/KDFW/cross_section_full/1736769600/1736769600-aZD7jHHfDHc.png

Yes, very deep cold.

Regardless, it would be hard to believe that someone in the South doesn't receive some type of winter precipitation at some point during such a cold spell.

Yep, usually see it on the front end (frontogenesis type event) or the back end (S/W attacking the cold like last weeks storm system) where there's enough cold air still around for frozen precip.

[Portastorm]

Blurb of interest from this afternoon's forecast discussion out of NWS Austin/San Antonio:

A generally downslope flow results in the warmest temperatures of the foreast period
with above average temperatures expected on Saturday. Then, a Canadian/Arctic
front moves through on Sunday. Lack of moisture convergence along the fronts precludes
any rain with the frontal passages. In wake of the Arctic front, temperatures plummet again
with hard freezes likely each night into morning for most areas. Most models/ensembles keep
the area dry in wake of the front. However, a few are starting to show a potential for
some precipitation early next week. For now, will keep mention of POPs out of the forecast
as timing and track of any impulses and accompanying forcing are highly uncertain and
lack a consensus at this time. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates on developments
of this potential.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.fox4news.com/video/1575702

Someone is salty this AM.......

Jump ahead to 2:38

[TarletonTexan]

https://www.fox4news.com/video/1575702

Someone is salty this AM.......

Jump ahead to 2:38

How dare anyone steal his thunder before he has a chance to get in front of the tv cameras. Geez. Ego much?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

https://www.fox4news.com/video/1575702

Someone is salty this AM.......

Jump ahead to 2:38

How dare anyone steal his thunder before he has a chance to get in front of the tv cameras. Geez. Ego much?

I really don’t have a problem with what he said other than it could be 5 below normal everywhere or 40 below.

When you see a map like that, chances are we aren’t going to be 5 degrees below normal.

[Stratton23]

Newest outlook from the CPC has increaed the hazardous temperature outlook for a good chunk of texas to a 2/3 or a moderate risk of hazardous cold temperatures, that is pretty significant

[Tireman4]

https://www.fox4news.com/video/1575702

Someone is salty this AM.......

Jump ahead to 2:38

Well, he has a point on the CPC Forecasts, but in defense of the CPC, it is CYT (Cover Your Tail). You do not want to make predictions that far out and have them completely bust.

[Sambucol2024]

Pow Ponder video. Interesting and wow!
https://www.facebook.com/share/1FfpDPrZ ... tid=wwXIfr

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.fox4news.com/video/1575702

Someone is salty this AM.......

Jump ahead to 2:38

How dare anyone steal his thunder before he has a chance to get in front of the tv cameras. Geez. Ego much?

I really don’t have a problem with what he said other than it could be 5 below normal everywhere or 40 below.

When you see a map like that, chances are we aren’t going to be 5 degrees below normal.

It's the way he said it and he just keeps going after social media people. I think it just could be more professional when doing so. CPC is our Government, Local TV Stations do not issue watches, warnings and outlooks. They are just a visual mouthpiece for the NWS, SPC and CPC.

I don't mean to derail but I'm sorry when I hear that kind of an attitude from a professional meteorologist that could utilize his time to educate just puts me off.

/rantover

[Ntxw]

Pow Ponder video. Interesting and wow!
https://www.facebook.com/share/1FfpDPrZ ... tid=wwXIfr

He is brave calling for 30-40F below average this early, best of luck on his forecast!

[Throckmorton]

I know we don’t live at 850mb, but this is as impressive of a model ensemble output as I’ve ever seen this far out. Not to mention that it’s the European which is typically more reasonable. I don’t know about precipitation events, but this just screams extreme cold is coming.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/L8YGxjC/IMG-5300.jpg [/url]

Surface temperatures per the EPS (ensemble) mean are cold but not record breaking.

[gpsnowman]

Agree on Evan Andrews. Another subtle jab at followers of weather. He was once the same thing without social media. Had he grown up in the era of exploding social media, guaranteed he would be all over it, just like we are.
If you can check out the Fox4 noon weather report from young Dylan Federico. It's a thought out report with a couple of informative descriptions of the effects of cross polar flow and snowpack to the north. More information rather than bitterness in my opinion. Again, I've been watching Evan for years but I think more professionalism is needed on his part. Follow social media but ignore it on air . Obviously he follows social media quite a bit.

[Throckmorton]

It's inappropriate to be criticizing professional meteorologists in this forum, correct?

[Stratton23]

POW calling for 30-40 degrees below normal for texas honestly doesnt sound that farfetched to me, this siberian sir will be crossing over a decent snowpack to our north which would slow moderation down, I think 30-40 below normal is most definitely a possibility considering the legs this airmass will have

[rwfromkansas]

I am assuming KS snowpack will have rapid melting this week, so we can't assume that will still be there by Friday except for the major 15+ areas.

But, hopefully that helps keep the cold from moderating. Not liking the non-storm runs, but it also is pretty early for that.

[snownado]

It's inappropriate to be criticizing professional meteorologists in this forum, correct?

As with everything, it's all in how you do it.