ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

Question to the pros and serious amateurs out there... just eyeballing the recon data, and it seems like the radius of hurricane force winds is a little larger than the 40 mile radius mentioned in the 8am advisory. The radius appears to have expanded since the eye wall replacement cycle. Any thoughts?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/783291497391263744

[Bluespider]

what are the chances the eye crosses 80w and actually touches the central Florida coast?

[AdamFirst]

Question to the pros and serious amateurs out there... just eyeballing the recon data, and it seems like the radius of hurricane force winds is a little larger than the 40 mile radius mentioned in the 8am advisory. The radius appears to have expanded since the eye wall replacement cycle. Any thoughts?

I'd say that's pretty evident. ERC & land interaction is key for an expanding wind field.

[AdamFirst]

what are the chances the eye crosses 80w and actually touches the central Florida coast?

Pretty high - not guaranteed chances, mind you, but even if the eye is 25-50 miles off shore central Florida it'll likely bring hurricane conditions or just below that to the coastline.

[jdjaguar]

I have found this site to be quite interesting in discerning wind patterns.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... thographic

[xironman]

So, for a few days we have been talking about that if 15L/Nicole forms, she would weaken the ridge, and hurl Matthew right out to sea, now she has an 80% chance of developing, and I haven't heard much about it, will Nicole weaken the ridge, or will she not really have much affect at all?

It was mentioned briefly on TWC but they said it wouldn't have any effect. I don't know if thats accurate or not.

I don't believe it is accurate. Based on WV satellite you can already see that Matthew will likely recurve and remain east of the forecast. The high pressure does not look to be building so much. My opinion, though pretty obvious.

With the two most accurate dynamic models saying no, I would put this as a low probability event.

[Soonercane]

So, for a few days we have been talking about that if 15L/Nicole forms, she would weaken the ridge, and hurl Matthew right out to sea, now she has an 80% chance of developing, and I haven't heard much about it, will Nicole weaken the ridge, or will she not really have much affect at all?

It was mentioned briefly on TWC but they said it wouldn't have any effect. I don't know if thats accurate or not.

I don't believe it is accurate. Based on WV satellite you can already see that Matthew will likely recurve and remain east of the forecast. The high pressure does not look to be building so much. My opinion, though pretty obvious.

To be fair most models didn't really build in the ridge too much in the short term with the most dramatic westward expansion occurring tomorrow. I agree with your theory though I can't see a mid-atlantic ridge being that strong in October.

[Bluespider]

what are the chances the eye crosses 80w and actually touches the central Florida coast?

Pretty high - not guaranteed chances, mind you, but even if the eye is 25-50 miles off shore central Florida it'll likely bring hurricane conditions or just below that to the coastline.

Ok, Thank you... I'm in Brevard County about 3 miles inland, watching this intently...

[nativefloridian]

Short video of Matthew as seen from the Space Station....pretty awesome!

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/7 ... orida-hits

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[SouthFLTropics]

Matthew is about to pop out over open water once again. His trek across the Tiburon Peninsula appears to have done very minor damage to the core.

[jdjaguar]

what are the chances the eye crosses 80w and actually touches the central Florida coast?

Pretty high - not guaranteed chances, mind you, but even if the eye is 25-50 miles off shore central Florida it'll likely bring hurricane conditions or just below that to the coastline.

Ok, Thank you... I'm in Brevard County about 3 miles inland, watching this intently...

deciding today whether to go down to Vero Beach and board up my mom's house.

she lives 2 blocks from the ocean on the barrier island.

not liking the current position of closest approach as that may put the strongest winds directly over her.

[lhpfish]

What time does the next model set come out? What is the schedule for models?

[Emmett_Brown]

Matthew is about to pop out over open water once again. His trek across the Tiburon Peninsula appears to have done very minor damage to the core.

The next recon pass should be very interesting. Wondering if it will be far enough off shore to get a vortex message. The IR sat pic definitely looks like the eye got disrupted a bit, but looks can be deceiving.

[AutoPenalti]

What time does the next model set come out? What is the schedule for models?

GFS at 11:30

[JaxGator]

Matthew is about to pop out over open water once again. His trek across the Tiburon Peninsula appears to have done very minor damage to the core.

Perhaps an indicator on how well-established the core is or not being over land that long. The sooner, the better for Haiti, though they will still have to endure the south-quad (backside).

[AdamFirst]

What time does the next model set come out? What is the schedule for models?

NAM releases at 11ish
GFS starts at 11:30
UKMET, CMC shortly after GFS
HWRF/GFDL/NAVGEM around 12:30-1
EURO starts at 1:45

[Blown Away]

Rare October CONUS hit from the SE if it happens...

[AdamFirst]

Jim Edds is currently in Exuma, The Bahamas. Expect good videos from him.

[jlauderdal]

Pretty high - not guaranteed chances, mind you, but even if the eye is 25-50 miles off shore central Florida it'll likely bring hurricane conditions or just below that to the coastline.

Ok, Thank you... I'm in Brevard County about 3 miles inland, watching this intently...

deciding today whether to go down to Vero Beach and board up my mom's house.

she lives 2 blocks from the ocean on the barrier island.

not liking the current position of closest approach as that may put the strongest winds directly over her.

vero beach is definitely in the zone..if i lived there shutters would be going up now