ATL: DORIAN - Models

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ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5301 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:50 am

Ridge initialized a bit stronger compared to 12z on the Euro.

Now to see how much farther west that will bring Dorian before the north turn.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5302 Postby shah83 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:50 am

Note that HWRF run would be a rainfall disaster for Ga as well as FL, and maybe worse.

EC has substantially the same starting ridging as the Canadian, and the GFS really does look kind of anomalously weak.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5303 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:52 am

The short wave trough across the Midwest also looks a touch less amplified compared to 12z. These are subtle differences, but for a track this close, these kinds of small shifts can make a big difference in terms of impacts.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5304 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:53 am

At 24 hrs

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5305 Postby sponger » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:54 am

STRiZZY wrote:ECMWF initializing at 990??

I know it's usually off but wow..


Anyone know why that is? How can it be so accurate when it misses the starting pressure?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5306 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:54 am

Definitely a bit west from 12z and last 00z
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5307 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:54 am

sponger wrote:
STRiZZY wrote:ECMWF initializing at 990??

I know it's usually off but wow..


Anyone know why that is? How can it be so accurate when it misses the starting pressure?

It’s a known issue on the Euro, doesn’t affect it.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5308 Postby STRiZZY » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:55 am

slightly west 24hr
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5309 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:55 am



Oval shaped getting tugged North?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5310 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:57 am

Through hour 30, the Euro is about ~50 miles west of 12z. Slightly stronger ridge, slightly weaker trough amplitude.
Last edited by ColdMiser123 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5311 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:58 am

Euro seems a bit faster the first 24 hours
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5312 Postby HDGator » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:59 am

Bocadude85 wrote:Euro seems a bit faster the first 24 hours

Not good news for the stall/turn scenario for the east coast of Florida...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5313 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:01 am

Looks closer to Florida so far.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5314 Postby StruThiO » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:01 am

Oh boy.. SW at 48h
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5315 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:01 am

DEFINITELY more west at 48 hours...
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5316 Postby STRiZZY » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:01 am

crucial hours coming
Last edited by STRiZZY on Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5317 Postby STRiZZY » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:02 am

Well see here soon
Last edited by STRiZZY on Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5318 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:02 am

Well uhhh...the euro sure is looking a bit more west here...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5319 Postby STRiZZY » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:02 am

West at 48
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5320 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:02 am

At 48 hrs

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