Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Houstonia]

Hou/Gal seems to not think it's going to be any bigger deal than the Thursday/Friday event:
Also showing Houston rising above freezing on Tuesday. However, I thought I read some other forecasting saying we will be lucky to get above freezing on Tuesday. *shrug* Oh well. have to wait and see, I guess.

Hou/Gal NWS:
Monday Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 54 by 8am, then falling to around 49 during the remainder of the day. West wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night A slight chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Tuesday A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tuesday Night A slight chance of snow and sleet before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

[txwxwatcher]

Hou/Gal seems to not think it's going to be any bigger deal than the Thursday/Friday event:
Also showing Houston rising above freezing on Tuesday. However, I thought I read some other forecasting saying we will be lucky to get above freezing on Tuesday. *shrug* Oh well. have to wait and see, I guess.

Hou/Gal NWS:
Monday Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 54 by 8am, then falling to around 49 during the remainder of the day. West wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night A slight chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Tuesday A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tuesday Night A slight chance of snow and sleet before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Pay attention to the NWS area forecast discussion rather than the point forecasts for more detailed discussion and details as to p-type amounts.

[Snowman67]

Hou/Gal seems to not think it's going to be any bigger deal than the Thursday/Friday event:
Also showing Houston rising above freezing on Tuesday. However, I thought I read some other forecasting saying we will be lucky to get above freezing on Tuesday. *shrug* Oh well. have to wait and see, I guess.

Hou/Gal NWS:
Monday Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 54 by 8am, then falling to around 49 during the remainder of the day. West wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night A slight chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Tuesday A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tuesday Night A slight chance of snow and sleet before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Read their latest discussion:

THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY COLD AND DRY...MID
TEEN AMBIENT AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS IN THE DAKOTAS
EVIDENCE TO THE POTENCY OF THIS NEXT AIR MASS TO DESCEND INTO
TEXAS TOMORROW. NWP SUITE STILL FORECASTING AREAWIDE QPF IN THE
QUARTER (INTERIOR) TO NEAR HALF INCH (COAST) LIQUID PRECIP TUESDAY
THAT WOULD EQUATE TO SNOW MEASURED BY THE INCHES OVER A GOOD PART
OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH
AN EARLY DAY FROZEN MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW (SANS THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...MAYBE) BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS BECAUSE
OF THE COLD AIR ENTRENCHING ITSELF OVER THE AREA BEFORE AN ANTICIPATED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING UP FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INITIATES
THE LIFT NEEDED IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL DEVELOP AS
EITHER UPPER LEVEL FALLING ICE CRYSTALS AND/OR SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS
EVAPORATIVELY-COOL THE LOWER COLUMN TOWARDS THE WET BULB TEMP THROUGH
THE DAY. RELATIVELY SHALLOW EARLY DAY 7-800MB WARM (ABOVE FREEZING)
LAYER IS ANTICIPATED TO SHRINK BACK TOWARDS 0 C INTO MID-DAY. WHILE
SNOW IS BECOMING NEARLY CERTAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR
COUNTIES...A LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW
OVER (NEAR) COASTAL COUNTIES IS BECOMING A MENTIONABLE EVENT. OF
COURSE...THE REAL HAZARDS WILL COME WITH THE PRECURSOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET THAT WILL COAT ROADWAYS AND POWER LINES WITH ICE.
THE BELOW REASONING STILL HOLDS TRUE ON HOW THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT WILL UNFOLD TUESDAY. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ALL OF THIS
SOUND FAMILIAR? 31

[Houstonia]

Good point txwxwatcher and snowman!!

Thank you!

[ROCK]

With the recent school closing last week to have another one so close this is going to be difficult. Especially with timing of the event. Maybe they let the kids out early on Tuesday. I don't feel safe even with a 4x4 driving on ice...ugh

Edit to add now if I was in Port's Prius I would feel safer...

[txwxwatcher]

Good point txwxwatcher and snowman!!

Thank you!

Absolutely. If you're hoping for some snow on the ground on Tuesday that will still be there when you wake up on Wednesday and again on Thursday, I am becoming increasingly confident that you will be happy.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im also interested to see what happens in la la land with the GFS

[ravyrn]

With the recent school closing last week to have another one so close this is going to be difficult. Especially with timing of the event. Maybe they let the kids out early on Tuesday. I don't feel safe even with a 4x4 driving on ice...ugh

Edit to add now if I was in Port's Prius I would feel safer...

It looks like it will begin around noon Tuesday. Kids could potentially not be in school Tues and Wed if some of the model forecasts pans out. NAM says it's starts around noon.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[txwxwatcher]

With the recent school closing last week to have another one so close this is going to be difficult. Especially with timing of the event. Maybe they let the kids out early on Tuesday. I don't feel safe even with a 4x4 driving on ice...ugh

Edit to add now if I was in Port's Prius I would feel safer...

If history is any guide HISD and surrounding school districts will cancel. Winter Storm Warnings don't get hoisted up around here very often. If one is issued tomorrow as looks increasingly likely, I would expect little chance of schools across the region being open on Tuesday (and likely Wednesday).

[ravyrn]

Meh, this board is losing its edge. We used to laugh off the NAM on a regular basis. Now I see cliff diving! C'mon folks, it's the NAM for crying out loud!!

Now if you see similar stuff from the GFS and Euro, then you can jump off the ledge.

Porta, remember the discussion we had this past midweek regarding these events? Perhaps we need to have that discussion again Your quote in my sig is delivering the goods, but I think the PWC may need to have a meeting after this event... to determine ptype preferences

[Rgv20]

Special Weather Statement issued out of the NWS in Brownsville..

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1013 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

TXZ248>257-271100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
1013 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

...ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY...
...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS...

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY.
WARM DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE
40S BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE COLD AIRMASS SPREADS OVER THE
REGION THE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL FALL FURTHER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES TO THE MID 30S
ACROSS STARR...HIDALGO...WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL EVEN
FURTHER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING
DIPPING INTO THE 20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE. AS THE RAIN MIXES
WITH THE DEEPENING COLD AIR...A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLAND AREAS. EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCH LANDS. AREAS OF ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS AND
KENEDY COUNTIES MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ACCUMULATED FROZEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT DUE TO FAIRLY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER PATCHY
ICING MAY OCCUR ON EXPOSED METAL SURFACES IN ADDITION TO EXPOSED
BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR LATER
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTRY WEATHER EVENT. LAST MINUTE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS ZAPATA...BROOKS...JIM HOGG AND KENEDY
COUNTIES COULD PRODUCE A MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR
THESE COUNTIES.

$$

[Houstonia]

Good point txwxwatcher and snowman!!

Thank you!

Absolutely. If you're hoping for some snow on the ground on Tuesday that will still be there when you wake up on Wednesday and again on Thursday, I am becoming increasingly confident that you will be happy.

I'm actually NOT hoping for some snow, or ice, or any of that, unless I get the day off of work!! I work in downtown Houston and I am really not looking forward to either the drive into work or the drive to the Metro Rail station. I can handle deep water, high winds, crashing thunder, etc. But I'm a total wimp when it comes to icy roads. And I don't trust other drivers on CLEAR days. LOL.

[Houstonia]

Gah! I work for UH and I'm not expecting to get lucky two days in seven days time. And Tuesday is TIME SHEET day!!

But I just heard the mayor talking and she's acknowledging that while last weeks storm impacted mostly only freeways, this one has the potential to also impact all the surface roads. It seems that the city government is showing concern for Tuesday. That's a good thing.

With the recent school closing last week to have another one so close this is going to be difficult. Especially with timing of the event. Maybe they let the kids out early on Tuesday. I don't feel safe even with a 4x4 driving on ice...ugh

Edit to add now if I was in Port's Prius I would feel safer...

If history is any guide HISD and surrounding school districts will cancel. Winter Storm Warnings don't get hoisted up around here very often. If one is issued tomorrow as looks increasingly likely, I would expect little chance of schools across the region being open on Tuesday (and likely Wednesday).

[txwxwatcher]

Gah! I work for UH and I'm not expecting to get lucky two days in seven days time. And Tuesday is TIME SHEET day!!

But I just heard the mayor talking and she's acknowledging that while last weeks storm impacted mostly only freeways, this one has the potential to also impact all the surface roads. It seems that the city government is showing concern for Tuesday. That's a good thing.

With the recent school closing last week to have another one so close this is going to be difficult. Especially with timing of the event. Maybe they let the kids out early on Tuesday. I don't feel safe even with a 4x4 driving on ice...ugh

Edit to add now if I was in Port's Prius I would feel safer...

If history is any guide HISD and surrounding school districts will cancel. Winter Storm Warnings don't get hoisted up around here very often. If one is issued tomorrow as looks increasingly likely, I would expect little chance of schools across the region being open on Tuesday (and likely Wednesday).

If this pans out as now expected, Tuesday may be iffy but many employers in Houston will not be expecting employees to commute to work on Wednesday (or instructing them to not even make the attempt).

[Ntxw]

If this pans out as now expected, Tuesday may be iffy but many employers in Houston will not be expecting employees to commute to work on Wednesday (or instructing them to not even make the attempt).

I think people in Houston metro should just stay home. My bet is this will be a bad ice storm for the city which probably doesn't have the man power or trucks for something like this prepared. It's better just to be at home and enjoy it.

[HouTXmetro]

This event is expected to be in Full effect by noon Tuesday. It's irresponsible for employers to ask their workers to drive home in that mess.

[jerryh421]

What about areas north of Houston? Does it not look that bad?

[Houstonia]

You obviously don't understand the importance of TIME SHEET DAY!! (I sound snarky, but having fun with a serious message: not turning in/being around to sign time sheets can really screw up the bureaucratic works!!)

And... back on topic.

If this pans out as now expected, Tuesday may be iffy but many employers in Houston will not be expecting employees to commute to work on Wednesday (or instructing them to not even make the attempt).

I think people in Houston metro should just stay home. My bet is this will be a bad ice storm for the city which probably doesn't have the man power or trucks for something like this prepared. It's better just to be at home and enjoy it.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

What about areas north of Houston? Does it not look that bad?

More sleet/snow than ice, but yes, it looks pretty intense.

[Longhornmaniac8]

So are models trending away from any precipitation in Austin, or is it more that Houston is potentially the bullseye?