ATL: IRMA - Models

[robbielyn]

Hello everyone, I am waiting for the 5 am advisory. I am a retired television/radio meteorologist/tropics specialist. The general consensus is that all the models are in agreement that Irma will hit South Florida on Monday, September 11. I have spoken to other seasoned meteorologists who agree that the ridge is NOT going to move in time so IRMA will affect Florida and head North. As we approach next full forecast I really do not see a change with this system. Yes, it is too soon for broadcast media to say YES FL will get hit. However being a Miami native and knowing the population base from Lake Okeechobee to Key West also knowing that the residents in Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties that live EAST of I-95 and EAST of US-1 they would need more than 36 hours an evac! This system along with Harvey is difficult. I have been at this more than half my life and in my 50's now. If I still lived in South Florida I would take no chances. I was an airborne traffic reporter back in the late 80's early 90's and I can tell you that this would be a traffic nightmare. I understand the media can't jump on this till a certain point but remember what is considered South Florida has millions of residents. I am on Facebook if you would like to look me up as I have more than 30 communities/public pages for meteorology/climate change. This storm is going to affect a lot of people. Thoughts and prayers out for Houston continue and now for South Florida and points North. I do not get much time to get on here as I am on Facebook 10 hours a day. -George Sheldon

up the spine of florida like gfs or more towards NE florida towards sc like euro?

[Cyclenall]

I will say this, the last 24 hours have been the craziest model watching in my 11 years of following models. September 3-4, 2017.

[jdjaguar]

Hello everyone, I am waiting for the 5 am advisory. I am a retired television/radio meteorologist/tropics specialist. The general consensus is that all the models are in agreement that Irma will hit South Florida on Monday, September 11. I have spoken to other seasoned meteorologists who agree that the ridge is NOT going to move in time so IRMA will affect Florida and head North. As we approach next full forecast I really do not see a change with this system. Yes, it is too soon for broadcast media to say YES FL will get hit. However being a Miami native and knowing the population base from Lake Okeechobee to Key West also knowing that the residents in Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties that live EAST of I-95 and EAST of US-1 they would need more than 36 hours an evac! This system along with Harvey is difficult. I have been at this more than half my life and in my 50's now. If I still lived in South Florida I would take no chances. I was an airborne traffic reporter back in the late 80's early 90's and I can tell you that this would be a traffic nightmare. I understand the media can't jump on this till a certain point but remember what is considered South Florida has millions of residents. I am on Facebook if you would like to look me up as I have more than 30 communities/public pages for meteorology/climate change. This storm is going to affect a lot of people. Thoughts and prayers out for Houston continue and now for South Florida and points North. I do not get much time to get on here as I am on Facebook 10 hours a day. -George Sheldon

George, let's be frank, you cannot evacuate south Florida. Too many people, and only route is north through central Florida? impossible.

[bamajammer4eva]

From
http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/

[Hurrilurker]

Looks like it's getting close enough to Hispaniola to disrupt the circulation and knock it down a peg, maybe prevent or interrupt RI.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Btw, if this would end up stronger than what the Euro is predicting and bombs before hitting the Antilles, would that mean a more westerly path?

[stormreader]

About 3 days ago I forecasted an "Irma window". Cape Fear, NC down to the North Coast of Cuba. I know the North coast must have seemed extreme to most, but its becoming a greater likelihood. However, I didn't expect that both locales would be struck! I want to narrow this down some either today or tomorrow. And actually, I'm not sure that both locations will be struck. Irma will probably be very close to the North Cuban coast, but things could change. I have mentioned a few times that a trek through the Fl Straits was possible, with a building ridge to the north and then an extra west push into the Straits. Its still possible. So keeping same "Irma window" for now. But hope to refine my outlook soon.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I believe it was Aric who said the models would shift west once the SW motion began. Good call.

I'm guessing we could have another day then of westward shifts, before Irma begins turning back to the north? Looks like the entire Southeast US should be on guard (I am NOT a pro).

[Vdogg]

From
http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/

A slight shift East on the ensembles. The next Op run
may have it landing North Carolina instead of NC/SC border.

[Hurrilurker]

I believe it was Aric who said the models would shift west once the SW motion began. Good call.

I'm guessing we could have another day then of westward shifts, before Irma begins turning back to the north? Looks like the entire Southeast US should be on guard (I am NOT a pro).

I would say the entire east coast up through Cape Cod needs to keep an eye on it.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO, the primary threat area for the contiguous United States would be the Mid-Atlantic states (NY, PA, VA, DE) all the way up to the eastern GOM (Mississippi, Alabama, Florida) but then again, this is from the trends in global models and given the moderately distant timeframe for potential impact, several scenarios would play out but the most likely as of late would be a strike on Southern Florida before reemerging prior to landfall over NC/SC/GA. Those residing in the aforementioned regions/states should consider preparing for possible effects Irma may bring. However, this is not a professional opinion, but hopefully folks would remain vigilant and source necessary information regarding the storm from the NHC and NWS.

[Vdogg]

So, 6Z gfs is quite a bit north from its last run. Looks like it might miss Hispaniola and probably Cuba completely. It'll be interesting where it makes its turn.

[Hurricaneman]

So, 6Z gfs is quite a bit north from its last run. Looks like it might miss Hispaniola and probably Cuba completely. It'll be interesting where it makes its turn.

If the turn is in the same spot No bueno for Florida and The Georgia coast

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks further west to me, but still barely misses skirting the coast of Hispaniola.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks further west to me, but still barely misses skirting the coast of Hispaniola.

This run will landfall in Cuba by the looks of it

[xtyphooncyclonex]

So, 6Z gfs is quite a bit north from its last run. Looks like it might miss Hispaniola and probably Cuba completely. It'll be interesting where it makes its turn.

As of TAU 96, it's actually identical to 00z though pressure is higher at 930 mb compared to 914 mb

Edit: TAU 102 trends SW, not north... Likely seeing minimal deviations from the previous run other than the pressure being higher and more realistic

[northjaxpro]

So, we have the 0z Runs of GFS and EURO having a sharp turn to the both somewhere between from 79 -82 degrees Longitude. Timing of when Irma gets caught and turns North is going to be HUGE!! during the next several days!

the only issue is this north turn is based on a mid to upper low forming with little to no support.. Euro hangs onto it .. the rest of the models backed off on it from the 12 ans 18z runs.. the 00z runs showed a different setup..

just expect this feature to fade...

Yes. That feature just pops in.out of nowhere. Yeah, that can not be a permanent feature

[NDG]

GFS continues with its westward shift.

[Vdogg]

Hmm, might not miss Cuba after all. Still grazing it.

[NDG]

So, 6Z gfs is quite a bit north from its last run. Looks like it might miss Hispaniola and probably Cuba completely. It'll be interesting where it makes its turn.

You must be looking at an old run, if anything this run is closer to Hispaniola and Cuba.