ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jasons2k]

Rock here is my opinion. It seems that West of Louisiana the NHC and models always over estimate the Ridges. All the storns usually end up east of the forecasted landfall point. With that said and the current model projections one can only conclude that the same will happen. (I know there is a first for everything but I'm confidently thinking this will end up East of Texas.) At the present the models & NHC seem to support that. If things change I will be the first to point it out and acknowledge that I was wrong. Maybe that is what Ed is thinking too?

Back to Gustav

Not all storms. Case & point, Allen, 1980.

Yeah, I discount any Texas possibility too - I've seen them go east too many times. If you have to go back 28 years to prove otherwise, then that doesn't prove much!

FWIW that was just off the top of my head

Look, I didn't mean to sound "snippy" myself and I'm sorry if I did. As you might guess, I'm very very busy right now.

The point was this - you can't assume that just becasue a few storms like Rita went east, you can then feel safe - and post as much on the board. That can be dangerous and deadly. You have to look at the actual situation at hand.

And like I said there is an option B with this system and it isn't Panama City.

I think if the GFDL will s-l-o-w down some it will get the idea, but for now it's WAY too fast, 6 runs in a row or not, it's just way too fast. If Gustav doesn't get going that trough is going to lift out, and some of the models are starting to see that. Capiche?

[SoupBone]

I'm surprised no one's commenting on this recent trend we're seeing in the models. The GFS, the NOGAPS, the UKMET, the HWRF, the AEMN all slow it down SIGNificantly just offshore. It's one thing to have a fast landfall of a major hurricane, but what about a Category 3+ hurricane churning 50 miles off the coast of several major cities and towns?

That would be totally chaotic and destructive to whichever area it heads to. I really don't even want to think about that in say Houston, New Orleans, Biloxi/Gulfport. I mean people thought Katrina was bad. This would be monumental.

[lonelymike]

Maybe it's time to give the discussion thread a rest for a while and just glance in at the trop analysis board for a while. People are getting tired and snippy. Not atall the normal attitude here at S2K

I guess because it's kind of a "lull" right now. But I've noticed it too. What I've noticed about S2K is that there appears to be too many thin-skinned posters. There's too much "I told you so", and stuff like that. And no one just lets criticism roll off their back. It's been getting worse lately though.

/yeahiknowcutitoutandbackontopic

Well if you are looking at your area getting hit and quite possibly losing everything that you have worked for all your life I can certainly understand the stress. Katrina was a mean lady and I can certainly understand the craziness this storms can unleash. Prayer does change things is all I will say.

[Stormcenter]

Hmm, I wonder if there's any possibility of the NAM model verifying? That would take Gus into the Yukatan and into the BOC...

That run would be bad for Mexico but wonderful for all of the Gulf coast.

[StormWarning1]

I'm surprised no one's commenting on this recent trend we're seeing in the models. The GFS, the NOGAPS, the UKMET, the HWRF, the AEMN all slow it down SIGNificantly just offshore. It's one thing to have a fast landfall of a major hurricane, but what about a Category 3+ hurricane churning 50 miles off the coast of several major cities and towns?

Jump over to the gustav model thread.

[StormWarning1]

Gustav has dropped a little further South. Now at 17.75N and 77W and pretty much stationary.

[alicia83]

Not picking on any single individual here, but some of you post WAY too much and about any and every little thing......

Examples
It wobbled west
It wobbled North
I think it is moving North then south then west then.......
Your wrong, it went south
Your wrong it went north

Most all of us on here know how to look at a Sat Pic or interpret a wobble. Some just think they need to tell us all something all the time and have an opinion on every single little detail. Ease Up, let others have an opinion and if you see something you disagree with -so what, we all don't need to know you disagree.

I think people can/should post as often as they please, but they shouldn't ridicule others for their opinion no matter how dead on or how foolish it may be. Discussions are great, debates are great, but you shouldn't ridicule someone because you disagree or think they're wrong. And if someone wants to post one word it's a message board, I say as long as its civil post away ... dunno...

Yes, much better to post your observation with info to back it up, and let that stand as your opposition to another poster. Just MHO.

Otherwise, I've got a great idea for a new horror story:
I was an amateur meteorologist.

Sorry, couldn't resist. Too much time spent watching Fay and Gustav, and now back to Gus.

[Scorpion]

The conditions are perfect for rapid deepening near the Caymans. I am expecting a sub 900 mb pressure.

[LSU2001]

Gustav has dropped a little further South. Now at 17.75N and 77W and pretty much stationary.

Looks to me that Gus may be finding the bumpy edge of the ridge and is stair stepping along the western side.
Overall motion seems to be west with wsw jogs.
tim

[caneman]

I agree with Dean, please stop with the Wobble West, Wobble East posts. Further, if you're huggin a model that goes to the State you live in , most people will believe you have a motive.

[6SpeedTA95]

The conditions are perfect for rapid deepening near the Caymans. I am expecting a sub 900 mb pressure.

That is a monster pressure prediction. It better get away from land if its going to pull off something that astounding. That has happened what 8 or 9 times in the atlantic basin?

[Dean4Storms]

Not picking on any single individual here, but some of you post WAY too much and about any and every little thing......

Examples
It wobbled west
It wobbled North
I think it is moving North then south then west then.......
Your wrong, it went south
Your wrong it went north

Most all of us on here know how to look at a Sat Pic or interpret a wobble. Some just think they need to tell us all something all the time and have an opinion on every single little detail. Ease Up, let others have an opinion and if you see something you disagree with -so what, we all don't need to know you disagree.

I think people can/should post as often as they please, but they shouldn't ridicule others for their opinion no matter how dead on or how foolish it may be. Discussions are great, debates are great, but you shouldn't ridicule someone because you disagree or think they're wrong. And if someone wants to post one word it's a message board, I say as long as its civil post away ... dunno...

Some just post way too much causing these threads to move faster than Gustav and usually it is basically the same thing they said 20 times before. I'm not bashing those that post informative information, new model runs, new coordinates, obs, personal forecasts, .e.t.c.... I'm just saying that telling us that you see a wobble 6 times or that it is headed toward LA ten times just clutters the board with useless information, there is not a person in America tonight that does not know that NO is in the center of the cone!

I'll leave it at that.

[CrazyC83]

The conditions are perfect for rapid deepening near the Caymans. I am expecting a sub 900 mb pressure.

That is a monster pressure prediction. It better get away from land if its going to pull off something that astounding. That has happened what 8 or 9 times in the atlantic basin?

Officially, 5 times (although there were probably 2 or 3 other storms that did so as well).

Wilma - 882, Gilbert - 888, Labor Day - 892, Rita - 895, Allen - 899.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Am I crazy or is Gustav moving SW away from Jamaica still?

[Air Force Met]

Yeah, I discount any Texas possibility too - I've seen them go east too many times. If you have to go back 28 years to prove otherwise, then that doesn't prove much!

Katrina...Ivan...Felix...Dean...Jeanne...there are many more.

While these aren't Texas examples...they are examples of storms in which the models...and NHC underestimated the strength of the ridge steering the storm. The first four storms on this list had major track adjustments due to getting the strength of the ridge right. Heck...in the State of Texas...we activated military to get bus drivers ready for evac based on the 5 day forecast pointing it towards the Valley. It went south of Tuxpan.

[jasons2k]

Sub 900 is a tall order indeed. But if there were a setup to do it, this would be it.

[cpdaman]

anyone wanna discuss the possibility for rapid deepening later tonite


or perhaps the current steering flow and how long this may drift sw/wsw for

anyone have a radar link to jamaica i can't find one but i know aric dunn had a shot of one up earlier but he's off line soo........bueller.....

[RattleMan]

The conditions are perfect for rapid deepening near the Caymans. I am expecting a sub 900 mb pressure.

That is a monster pressure prediction. It better get away from land if its going to pull off something that astounding. That has happened what 8 or 9 times in the atlantic basin?

Only five times! Wilma, Gilbert, 1935, Rita, and Allen.

EDIT: Crazy beat me

[6SpeedTA95]

Hey crazy, long time no see, how the heck have you been?

What are you thinking right now on Gustav? Any thoughts on landfall and current model runs?

[StormWarning1]

anyone wanna discuss the possibility for rapid deepening later tonite


or perhaps the current steering flow and how long this may drift sw/wsw for

anyone have a radar link to jamaica i can't find one but i know aric dunn had a shot of one up earlier but he's off line soo........bueller.....

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/