ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5341 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:04 am

Inland over Cuba:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5342 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:04 am

Pressure higher than previous run but the bad news is that the ridge remains more intact
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5343 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:05 am

By Wednesday this is going into the GOM by passing Florida all together
Last edited by SFLcane on Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5344 Postby Vdogg » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:05 am

NDG wrote:GFS continues with its westward shift.

Won't really know if it's Westward until it makes it's turn. It hasn't reached Florida longitude yet, which is the furthest west it's been. 0z ensembles backed off Florida landfall a bit.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5345 Postby Vdogg » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:08 am

About under Fl now. Maybe GOM
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5346 Postby MrJames » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:09 am

114 to 138 looks to be heading due west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5347 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:09 am

Vdogg wrote:
NDG wrote:GFS continues with its westward shift.

Won't really know if it's Westward until it makes it's turn. It hasn't reached Florida longitude yet, which is the furthest west it's been. 0z ensembles backed off Florida landfall a bit.


So far through 138 hr is further south & west than previous runs.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5348 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:09 am

Stalling and feeling the trough.... Florida again.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5349 Postby Vdogg » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:11 am

Pretty much due west now. Guess it missed the trough.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5350 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:11 am

A majority of the 00z ensembles went over Cuba (some even went into the Caribbean through Cuba) but almost all of them lifted north towards Florida afterwards:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5351 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:13 am

Yep looks up the spine again on the GFS
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5352 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:13 am

Lifting north now:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5353 Postby MrJames » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:13 am

Starting the turn toward Florida. Might take I-75 this time though.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5354 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:14 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5355 Postby Vdogg » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:14 am

I have to wonder how much storm will be left after riding the entire length of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5356 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:14 am

USTropics wrote:A majority of the 00z ensembles went over Cuba (some even went into the Caribbean through Cuba) but almost all of them lifted north towards Florida afterwards:

https://i.imgur.com/Q7mxgk0.png[/img]


Quite a few Euro ensembles did too, and many of them went to the east of Florida. Still far enough out that nothing is really off the table I guess.
Last edited by HurricaneFrances04 on Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5357 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:14 am

Donna could be a good analog storm for track as long as the west trends don't continue.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5358 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:15 am

Vdogg wrote:Pretty much due west now. Guess it missed the trough.


You always speak too soon :)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5359 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:16 am

Lifting north now:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5360 Postby MrJames » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:16 am

Looks due north at 162.
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