ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[asd123]

The question of why CPC dropped to 58% the chance to get El Nino in the November monthly update is answered in this discussion by them,excerpt below. Read whole discussion at link.

We’re still not seeing much of an atmospheric response to the surface warming, so there is now concern that if El Niño conditions are achieved, they won’t persist for the five overlapping seasons required for this to be called an El Niño event. So, we’re still calling for the development of El Niño–just with less confidence.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... 80%99-away

What I said earlier, couple pages ago:
"I agree that an El Nino is definitely materializing and rapidly at that. My guess for your question is that the CPC probably doesn't want to take any chances just in case the weather changes its mind. Don't forget earlier this year with the historic Kelvin Wave. The CPC NOAA NWS was calling for a very high chance of El Nino by now, but soon afterwards, the warm pool faded big time. Now the El Nino is getting its act together, in my opinion for real this time, but the CPC NOAA NWS just wants to be on the safe side."

Basically yeah they want to be on the safe side after the earlier bust.

[gigabite]

The question of why CPC dropped to 58% the chance to get El Nino in the November monthly update is answered in this discussion by them,excerpt below. Read whole discussion at link.

We’re still not seeing much of an atmospheric response to the surface warming, so there is now concern that if El Niño conditions are achieved, they won’t persist for the five overlapping seasons required for this to be called an El Niño event. So, we’re still calling for the development of El Niño–just with less confidence.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... 80%99-away

What I said earlier, couple pages ago:
"I agree that an El Nino is definitely materializing and rapidly at that. My guess for your question is that the CPC probably doesn't want to take any chances just in case the weather changes its mind. Don't forget earlier this year with the historic Kelvin Wave. The CPC NOAA NWS was calling for a very high chance of El Nino by now, but soon afterwards, the warm pool faded big time. Now the El Nino is getting its act together, in my opinion for real this time, but the CPC NOAA NWS just wants to be on the safe side."

Basically yeah they want to be on the safe side after the earlier bust.

Statistically the reasoning is probably based on current data, and the narrative is shaped by the intended audience.

[euro6208]

Interesting that el nino means christ child because it usually appears around christmas. We might get one...

[cycloneye]

CFSv2 is alone with this forecast of a Moderate to Strong El Nino by next Summer.Even the always bullish on the warm side ECMWF doesn't go that extreme.Ntxw,why the difference is so large between those two models.

CFSv2



ECMWF

[Blown Away]

If no El Nino, what lead to a very active EPAC season? Thought El Nino usually results in increased EPAC activity?
Did boderline El Nino conditions play a roll in below average Atlantic activity?
It appears El Nino chances are higher than average for 2015?

[cycloneye]

This discussion by the folks of CPC may clear some misunderstandings about when a El Nino will be officially declared.

El Niño “events” versus El Niño “conditions”

However, the folks at NOAA CPC and the IRI issue their ENSO Diagnostics Discussion and update the ENSO Alert System every month. If it’s issued monthly, then will it take three months to say El Niño has arrived?

The short answer is no. Knowing that ENSO is a coupled climate pattern between the atmosphere and ocean (see earlier post) gives us an ability to provide information on a monthly timescale. We will declare the onset of El Niño conditions (not yet a full-blown El Niño event) when three criteria are met:
1. Departures in the Niño-3.4 index equal to or exceeding +0.5C for a single month.
2. The tropical Pacific atmosphere should be consistent with El Niño. In particular, rainfall should be enhanced near the Date Line and suppressed near Indonesia, and the surface winds across parts of the equatorial Pacific should be anomalously westerly.
3. A forecast that the ONI will equal or exceed +0.5C for several seasons in a row.

Have there been cases when the ONI exceeded +0.5C for a couple seasons in a row, but El Niño was never declared? Yes, this happened most recently in 2012, when two seasons were warm enough to reach El Niño levels. But the atmosphere and, in particular, the pattern of tropical convection resembled the opposite state of El Niño—La Niña. So, an El Niño Advisory was never issued.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... as-arrived

[cycloneye]

Updated data of the subsurface show how the warm pool continues to expand.

[cycloneye]

Betting on El Nino is the theme of this interesting discussion by CPC.



http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... redictions

[HURRICANELONNY]

20 bucks for an el nino. which i think is already here but not by the 3 month standard.

[asd123]

This El Nino really seems to be establishing itself, and personally I think it's the real deal this time around. SSTA's have been building and no significant loss of the warmth was indicated. SOI has been strongly negative, with only a few single digit positive values as of late. That's just typical fluctuation.

Can others tell me how other El Nino indicating indices are doing? I am really only familiar with the SOI and SSTA's

[Ntxw]

Most are all within El Nino territory. It's just a matter of maintaining it, that's what the CPC wants. It needs to last more than a month for them to be confident, but in reality we can all see it's here. Global weather has been reflecting it.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's been a while since there has been a drop of rain here. It's unusual, and happens usually on El Niño events.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Most are all within El Nino territory. It's just a matter of maintaining it, that's what the CPC wants. It needs to last more than a month for them to be confident, but in reality we can all see it's here. Global weather has been reflecting it.

http://i60.tinypic.com/xc51sg.gif

Can I get the link to that neat graphic? I am going to add it to the first post of the thread along with the others that are there.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Most are all within El Nino territory. It's just a matter of maintaining it, that's what the CPC wants. It needs to last more than a month for them to be confident, but in reality we can all see it's here. Global weather has been reflecting it.

http://i60.tinypic.com/xc51sg.gif

Can I get the link to that neat graphic? I am going to add it to the first post of the thread along with the others that are there.

Most definitely, it's from NCDC

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sst/


I'm guessing 0.9C for Monday's update. There are 1C anomalies approaching from both east and west on TAO buoys.

[cycloneye]

When El Nino arrives officially in the coming weeks it would be the traditional one and not Modoki if this warming at Nino 1+2 just of South America holds.

[Kingarabian]

The more it climbs, the more the temperatures average out, the quicker the declaration.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TROPICAL TIDBITS DAILY UPDATE

Niño 1+2: +1.4C
Niño 3: +1.2C
Niño 3.4: +0.9C
Niño 4: +0.9C

[cycloneye]

PDO update will come this week and I expect a rise from the +1.08 that was in the last update.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

5th week in a row that the Niño 3.4 index is at least +0.5°C, and would be official in a few hours.

Niño 1+2: +0.9°C
Niño 3: +0.9°C
Niño 3.4: +0.8°C
Niño 4: +0.9°C

[cycloneye]

Text of the 11/17/14 CPC update that has Nino 3.4 staying at +0.8C. But if you read the whole update,the signs for El Nino to appear soon are there.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf