ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

Just checked 250mb winds.
ULL just broke down.
Ridge to the north is really pushing down on Dorian now.
Anti-cyclone looks stronger.
Stay tuned.

Just as I suspected, the ridge north of Dorian is stronger than initially thought. 850 mb steering analysis last night showed that the ridge axis extended west all the way into the North Centra GOM. This explained the ULL west of Dorian contunued west .motion. The ULL was forecasted to droo south.over Cuba 36 hours ago. That is telling to me tight there about the strength of the ridge north of Dorian.

Can anybody explain in simple terms what this could mean for Dorian's future?

A faster forward speed and a more westward track before the turn north, which is why the NHC sent Gonzo back out to sample the ridge again (and why models have trended a bit west last night/this morning).

[toad strangler]

Just as I suspected, the ridge north of Dorian is stronger than initially thought. 850 mb steering analysis last night showed that the ridge axis extended west all the way into the North Centra GOM. This explained the ULL west of Dorian contunued west .motion. The ULL was forecasted to droo south.over Cuba 36 hours ago. That is telling to me tight there about the strength of the ridge north of Dorian.

Can anybody explain in simple terms what this could mean for Dorian's future?

A faster forward speed and a more westward track before the turn north, which is why the NHC sent Gonzo back out to sample the ridge again (and why models have trended a bit west last night/this morning).

And why the cone was adjusted W

[hurricaneCW]

I hope everyone who thought they were in the clear yesterday is prepared. One more west shift and the eye will be right on the coast.

Models shows significant increase in Dorian's size as it gets closer to Florida, surge and heavy rain is likely regardless of landfall.

[northjaxpro]

Just checked the 00Z runs.
Global models are way off on intensity initializations.
Hurricane models much better.

Hate to say it JAX, not looking good for you.

Yesh GCANE, I am REALLY ON THE EDGE dealing with the prospects of this monster storm.
Yeah I have so much still to do with preps today here at my home. Needless to say, it is a rather sttessful time for yours truly.

At least time is on your side. How far are you from the coast?

I live in northwestern Jacksonville, about 4 miles from where the NWS Jax WFO is located near the
JAX Airport. I am about 15 miles inland fron the coast. I am in an area where there are some trees,so obviousky that is worrying me the most around the my home here. I live far enough away from the Saint Johns River amd other tributaires to be concerned aboit any storm surge flooding.isdues (hopefully)

I wil be so busy from here on out, working my job montoring the syorm and getting all of my ,preps done in between. I will try to duck in here when I can, to updateall of you on how I am and the conditions for as long as I can do so safely. that is to emphasize.

I have a srrong feeling for the first time I will have to leave to get away from the storm. I will.make that decision by tomortow if not sooner, .given that I am sure mandatory evacuations will be issued today later. The roads are going to be chaotic to say the least.

[USTropics]

Next recon flight is en route:

[Kat5]

CMISS map is still showing the weakness slowly and surely transitioning as Dorian continues it’s expected slowed westward movement. Nothing really off per the forecast, in my opinion. Stay safe folks!

[jlauderdal]

Next recon flight is en route:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF302-2805A-DORIAN_dropsondes.png

right over the house, lol

[cjrciadt]

My guesses for Recon Data:
Peak FL: 155
Peak SMFR: 151
933mb

[Bunkertor]

First real light pictures are due
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 146&y=5680

[catskillfire51]

My guesses for Recon Data:
Peak FL: 155
Peak SMFR: 151
933mb

Knts or mph?

[cjrciadt]

My guesses for Recon Data:
Peak FL: 155
Peak SMFR: 151
933mb

Knts or mph?

Yes knots

[Bocadude85]

CMISS map is still showing the weakness slowly and surely transitioning as Dorian continues it’s expected slowed westward movement. Nothing really off per the forecast, in my opinion. Stay safe folks!

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.GIF

Dorian has not slowed down as out yet, not sure what you are looking at...

[Sciencerocks]

I'll predict
929 mb pressure
162 knots flight level
154 knots smrf

Of course this will result in the nhc keeping the intensity at 11am at 130 knots.

[catskillfire51]

My guesses for Recon Data:
Peak FL: 155
Peak SMFR: 151
933mb

Knts or mph?

Yes knots

Im thinking SMFR: 140kts
930mb

[USTropics]

First visible frame this morning:


Mesoscale Floater #1 has 30 second image updates: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[northjaxpro]

CMISS map is still showing the weakness slowly and surely transitioning as Dorian continues it’s expected slowed westward movement. Nothing really off per the forecast, in my opinion. Stay safe folks!

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.GIF

Oh yeah. The weakness is definitely there as evidenced on the steering map analysis for this morning. It is just a matter of timing. How quickly will the ridge get erioded by the shortwave, or will the ridge hold strong enough to push Dorian right to the coast or even landfall.

Dorian will get close enough fo give very damaging effects and impacts I am afraid along the Florida East Coast, even without a direct landfall..

[AdamFirst]

Feel like everyone from Palm Beach northward should be prepared for hurricane conditions. This is way too close of a call and any deviation further West would be a bad day.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[USTropics]

Jim Edds is in one precarious position:
 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1168109910342668290

[GCANE]

Yesh GCANE, I am REALLY ON THE EDGE dealing with the prospects of this monster storm.
Yeah I have so much still to do with preps today here at my home. Needless to say, it is a rather sttessful time for yours truly.

At least time is on your side. How far are you from the coast?

I live in northwestern Jacksonville, about 4 miles from where the NWS Jax WFO is located near the
JAX Airport. I am about 15 miles inland fron the coast. I am in an area where there are some trees,so obviousky that is worrying me the most around the my home here. I live far enough away from the Saint Johns River amd other tributaires to be concerned aboit any storm surge flooding.isdues (hopefully)

I wil be so busy from here on out, working my job montoring the syorm and getting all of my ,preps done in between. I will try to duck in here when I can, to updateall of you on how I am and the conditions for as long as I can do so safely. that is to emphasize.

I have a srrong feeling for the first time I will have to leave to get away from the storm. I will.make that decision by tomortow if not sooner, .given that I am sure mandatory evacuations will be issued today later. The roads are going to be chaotic to say the least.

Keep us posted JAX, look forward to your updates.

[Kat5]

CMISS map is still showing the weakness slowly and surely transitioning as Dorian continues it’s expected slowed westward movement. Nothing really off per the forecast, in my opinion. Stay safe folks!

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.GIF

Oh yeah. The weakness is definitely there as evidenced on the map analysis for this morning. It is just a natter of timing. How quickly will the ridge get erioded by the shortwave, or will the ridge hold strong enough to push Dotian right to thr coast or even landfall.

Dorian will get close enough fo give very damaging effects and ompacts I am afraid along the Florida East Coast, even wiyhout a firect landfall.

One thing for sure regarding it’s predicted trajectory, it’s not a Matthew scenario. As I can recall, it was a decaying western Atlantic ridge vs a longwave. That’s not happening here, a western motion is more probable as the models have had noticeable issues of handling eroding ridges this season.