CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Extremeweatherguy]

114 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif (yucatan hit)

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

Observations: That weakness near TX/LA is concerning and is a bit more pronounced than on the 18z run.

The weakness you are talking about, is it that red line that seems to be pushing back? Sorry about the question, but don't really know how to read these.
Thanks

It has to do with the area between the ULL and the High. It shows a more north/northwestward upper-level flow toward SE Texas and western LA that would probably pick up the storm and move it that way if the storm was far enough north.

[Aric Dunn]

it has beautiful outflow!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[jasons2k]

Rita visions just keep running through my mind...the models had it moving up that coast soooo fast...I know it is hard to forecast these things...too many weather patterns to work with to steer it. Is it just me...or does the remnants of Erin seem to be turning to the NE to maybe SE? I was looking at the water vapor shots that someone just posted...

Erin is WNW of San Antonio. Quite a bit further north than the NHC forecast points, and MUCH further north than the original thinking of MX/Brownsville. And yes, I think that's something to ponder.

[HarlequinBoy]

Not to be the thread police, but the reposting of Jeff's email, 2X, uncleaned, just took half a page

This forum went from Macys to Walmart in one season....

Hopefully the start of school will curtail the "I agree!" and "what is CDO?" -type posts. Don't get me wrong...curiosity and teaching is great...but text messaging "sux".

I think you are wrong to assume that a lot of the somewhat worthless posts are being made by students.


ANYways, judging from the model trends, I don't see any huge shift northward occurring. A landfall further northward along the US coast seems more possible than this morning (IMO), but I think we should focus on the landfall in the Islands for tonight.. JMO.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

High still building west along Gulf Coast

[Extremeweatherguy]

126 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

observations: similar to the 18z, except the high is slightly further east. I still don't like that weakness though. If this storm is slightly further north, then it will likely not miss it.

[sweetpea]

114 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif (yucatan hit)

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

Observations: That weakness near TX/LA is concerning and is a bit more pronounced than on the 18z run.

The weakness you are talking about, is it that red line that seems to be pushing back? Sorry about the question, but don't really know how to read these.
Thanks

It has to do with the area between the ULL and the High. It shows a more north/northwestward upper-level flow toward SE Texas and western LA that would probably pick up the storm and move it that way if the storm was far enough north.

thanks!!

[ConvergenceZone]

you are right, the outflow is pretty cool looking....Yikes, best of luck to those in the islands, my prayers will be with you.......

[HouTXmetro]

Why do we give the GFS more credence than other models? Does this run increase the chance of a Mexico strike?

[Stormcenter]

The same as the past four runs. These models are on to something.

I agree.

[Extremeweatherguy]

132 hrs .. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

[opera ghost]

Guys relax. This thing isn't going to dissipate over the islands. It will strengthen some and then once it gets in the central Caribbean...watch out.

Certainly... although land does tend to rough up the perfect symmetry in a snapshot glance.

(And unless something changed last year while I was out, the boards always get a little more rowdy and crazy when there's a big storm on the map. Just the nature of it all and the number of new people.)

[ericinmia]

126 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

observations: similar to the 18z, except the high is slightly further east. I still don't like that weakness though. If this storm is slightly further north, then it will likely not miss it.

I agree...
I was just looking and comparing steering currents and I think the GFS is overplaying that ridge, and is not steering the storm the sligh wnw that I think I can see it eventually going. (after Jamaica) I just dont see this weaker ridge with ULL sitting over the western gulf steering this storm dead west for that large of a distance (Jamaica to Mexico)

[Aric Dunn]

it maybe getting ready too have a large burst of convection ...

[cpdaman]

to be honest i don't have much faith in the models tracks (no matter what data they put in today) still being A NUMBER of days out, but just looking at trends which a bigger ULL is intresting ( if this verify's)

and i have less faith in the strength forecast, i think this thing may face a bit more adverse conditions ( and at it's size it could take a toll)

i do NOT think it is inevitable that it becomes a major.

but the current increasing forward speed and larger ULL will be something i would keep abreast of.
at it's current pace it is covering 600 miles a day!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The same as the past four runs. These models are on to something.

I agree.

Yeah, the upper pattern is the same too though..and that weakness near TX/LA does not look good. I am very worried that if this takes a slightly further north track, it will try and follow the ULL by moving more NW. We will have to see how this evolves in the models over the next few days.

[Aric Dunn]

Current Weather Conditions:
Le Lamentin, Martinique
(TFFF) 14-36N 061-00W 7M
Conditions at

2007.08.17 0414 UTC
Wind from the NE (040 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 KT) gusting to 47 MPH (41 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility less than 1 mile
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Heavy rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.80 in. Hg (1009 hPa)
ob TFFF 170414Z 04015G41KT 340V090 1500 +SHRA SCT013CB BKN016 25/22 Q1009 TEMPO 3000 SHRA OR TSRA RMK M2




TS winds now in martinigue!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

144 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

looks like this run will feature another Mexico hit.

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif

^^weakness still near TX coast^^

BTW: it is a tad further north in the 00z run at this point than in the 18z run.

[cheezyWXguy]

it has beautiful outflow!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

On top of that, the eye maybe finally making its appearance now. It looks barely discernable on the RGB loop, but is a little more noticible on IR loops.

[cycloneye]

it maybe getting ready too have a large burst of convection ...

Give us a link.