ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[sphelps8681]

She'll slow...I just hope people don't jump on the 'she's turning north' bandwagon

When she does slow does do you think it will make a big difference in landfall location?

[artist]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

still west.
It seems a bit easier to tell if you back away a little.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

use the floater and include the forecast points. You will see it is very near the points or just to the north of the current one.

Vbhoutex - where is the dry air? I don't really see any on the water vapor image. There is moisture all around, maybe not really deep, but I do see moisture surrounding it myself. Can you post an image showing what you are seeing? Thanks

[jasons2k]

I can't remember the last time when not only have the forecasts varied so much, but what the storm is doing now has varied so much. And not just among the amteurs either.
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Sorry I don't see any dry air entrainment. I think the inlfow was cutoff earlier from the Yucatan on the southern end of the circulation but we are seeing it wrap now.

I don't think anyone calling for RI said that would happen today, more like tonight and/or tomorrow. It has to get a core first and it's quickly doing that.

Don't forget this was just an open wave 12 hours ago. It looks pretty good right now for a system still in genesis.

[Aric Dunn]

Until Dolly gets rid of all that dry air she is currently ingesting(which I did not notice earlier)she is not going to do anything significant. That is the plain and simple of it!!!

Glad someone agrees..I think we will see the Pro Mets agree here shortly as well..

NO dry Air....

Nice moisture envelope!!!!!

as seen from water vapor


and seen from moisture content TPW


also as seen from a microwave pass earlier


ok

[paintplaye]

Until Dolly gets rid of all that dry air she is currently ingesting(which I did not notice earlier)she is not going to do anything significant. That is the plain and simple of it!!!

Yes I agree with you there is dry air, contrary to members will argue (and deny) who are cheering Dolly on. Those looking for RI are not going to see that in the near-term, not with all that dry air she is injesting. Personally, she is not impressing me much. Later tonight could be another story though. We'll have to wait and see. Then again she may only reach strong TS status and that is it.

Either way NHC is nailing the forecast again, kudos to them.

Except for the part where the storm is all ready north of the track.

[Aric Dunn]

Until Dolly gets rid of all that dry air she is currently ingesting(which I did not notice earlier)she is not going to do anything significant. That is the plain and simple of it!!!

Yes I agree with you there is dry air, contrary to members will argue (and deny) who are cheering Dolly on. Those looking for RI are not going to see that in the near-term, not with all that dry air she is injesting. Personally, she is not impressing me much. Later tonight could be another story though. We'll have to wait and see. Then again she may only reach strong TS status and that is it.

Either way NHC is nailing the forecast again, kudos to them.

.
well instead of you just saying something .. prove it please show me the dry in some data or images something .. i just gave you plenty of evidence show almost No dry air to speak of..

[HouTXmetro]

I think the ULL (which can be seen on vis) to the SSW of Dolly is either shearing the Southern Quad or inducing dry air into the system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[deltadog03]

WOW, this is one weird chick! first time I have seen Dolly today! Didn't really expect her to look like this...

[gatorcane]

Until Dolly gets rid of all that dry air she is currently ingesting(which I did not notice earlier)she is not going to do anything significant. That is the plain and simple of it!!!

Yes I agree with you there is dry air, contrary to members will argue (and deny) who are cheering Dolly on. Those looking for RI are not going to see that in the near-term, not with all that dry air she is injesting. Personally, she is not impressing me much. Later tonight could be another story though. We'll have to wait and see. Then again she may only reach strong TS status and that is it.

Either way NHC is nailing the forecast again, kudos to them.

Except for the part where the storm is all ready north of the track.

Sure maybe its tracking about 10-20 NM to the right of the FORECAST points but she is well within the cone (i.e. track) so NHC is nailing it. Even so a diff of 10 NM is not much at all.

[artist]

vbhoutex - here is the water vapor image I am using -
not trying to argue, just want to see what you are seeing so I can learn
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

[cycloneye]

I can't remember the last time when not only have the forecasts varied so much, but what the storm is doing now has varied so much. And not just among the amteurs either.

Since this system started to be investigate by being tagged as 94L around 8N-40W,it has been a weird system with many rollercoasters,twists and turns that haved created expectations,high and low.

[Brent]

WOW, this is one weird chick! first time I have seen Dolly today! Didn't really expect her to look like this...

I know, right? I woke up this morning and thought it was a different storm... This has been one strange storm all along, it became an invest 8 days ago.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Until Dolly gets rid of all that dry air she is currently ingesting(which I did not notice earlier)she is not going to do anything significant. That is the plain and simple of it!!!

Yes I agree with you there is dry air, contrary to members will argue (and deny) who are cheering Dolly on. Those looking for RI are not going to see that in the near-term, not with all that dry air she is injesting. Personally, she is not impressing me much. Later tonight could be another story though. We'll have to wait and see. Then again she may only reach strong TS status and that is it.

Either way NHC is nailing the forecast again, kudos to them.

.
well instead of you just saying something .. prove it please show me the dry in some data or images something .. i just gave you plenty of evidence show almost No dry air to speak of..

Your 1st pic shows plenty of Dry air to her south that i can see getting entrained..

[Frank2]

I agree about the dry air ingestion - it's more impressive at the mid levels at this time...

[gatorcane]

Here is a WV image showing the pocket of dry air to her south (dark spot on image). She is injesting this dry air at the moment. Don't look for RI anytime soon. As I said though tonight could be a different story.

[dwg71]

But for the most part, this has been tagged as a southern tx/northern mex as a strong ts or cat 1 for quite a while now. No big surprises if you ask me. It is booking right now, looks to be about 6 hours ahead of schedule so far, with no signs of slowing. could be inland late tuesday night, wee hours of Wednesday.

[Aric Dunn]

Until Dolly gets rid of all that dry air she is currently ingesting(which I did not notice earlier)she is not going to do anything significant. That is the plain and simple of it!!!

Glad someone agrees..I think we will see the Pro Mets agree here shortly as well..

NO dry Air....

Nice moisture envelope!!!!!

as seen from water vapor


and seen from moisture content TPW


also as seen from a microwave pass earlier


ok

here lets add another image .. just recently..

its has a well established moisture envelope


unless its the dry air is hiding somewhere.. wait maybe its just invisible to all the sensors

[Frank2]

The 5 p.m. TCD will make for interesting reading - my guess is that they'll mention the dry air...

[Yankeegirl]

So, as i am sitting here at the college waiting to be seen, i am looking at the news websites and came across this from http://www.kprc.com, which is houstons nbc news channel... hows this for some hype?

"The forecast track for the storm has moved north and could threaten the Houston area."

Now,the met. that forecast this is Khambrel Marshall, who isnt even a met!! He was an anchor that used to be on the AM news and now he does weather... just thought i would pass this along and lighten things up around here... lol...

[ronjon]

Here is the slow down forecasted by the latest GFDL Model. 0 hr is 8 AM this morning. She doesn't really slow down till tomorrow morning.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.5 88.8 300./15.9
6 22.2 90.1 299./13.4
12 22.9 91.3 296./13.2
18 23.4 92.7 291./13.1
24 24.0 93.7 298./11.5
30 24.3 94.5 297./ 7.7
36 24.8 95.1 306./ 7.1
42 25.2 95.6 307./ 6.0
48 25.7 95.9 330./ 6.2
54 26.1 96.3 310./ 4.8
60 26.3 96.8 300./ 4.8